E145: Presidential Candidate Chris Christie in conversation with the Besties

In roughly 11 years from 2023 (around 2034), the U.S. Social Security trust fund will reach insolvency, triggering an automatic reduction of about 24% in Social Security benefits and an automatic reduction of about 25% in Medicare benefits unless laws are changed beforehand.

“they all know it's going broke in 11 years. And that's an automatic 24% benefit cut on the Social Security side. An automatic 25% Medicare benefit cut on that side.”

If the president elected in 2024 does not enact reforms to Social Security and Medicare during their term, the U.S. will enter an "absolute crisis" period on these programs within roughly three years of the trust fund insolvency date (i.e., early 2030s), during which the policy options available to fix them will be more limited than they are today.

“It's 11 years. It's not 20 years. It's 11 now. And it means that if the next president doesn't deal with it, then it is going to be an absolute crisis mode when it has to be dealt with. will be inside three years, and at that point the options will be even fewer.”

Ukraine will eventually be admitted as a member of NATO as a direct consequence of Russia's invasion and the subsequent NATO military and intelligence support; its NATO membership is effectively a foregone conclusion, to occur once war-related conditions (such as the requirement that they win the war) are satisfied.

“I think that in the situation we're in now, David, um, they're going to be it's almost a de facto point at this point. I don't I think that given that we permitted Russia to do what they did, um, given that we're that that they have now executed what they've executed in terms of their aggression against Ukraine and the NATO support, um, from a military hardware and other intelligence perspective for Ukraine, I think it is now a foregone conclusion that Ukraine will be will be admitted to NATO. And frankly, it's got to be now.”

Because of the involvement of classified documents, the federal criminal case against Donald Trump over the Mar-a-Lago documents will not reach trial for approximately 1.5–2 years after indictment (i.e., until around late 2024 to mid‑2025).

“I would have indicted him for sure on the, uh, documents case. But I will tell you... by indicting on the documents, you just made it a much more complicated case that may not get to trial for a year and a half or two because of the classified documents involved.”

Chris Christie predicts that he will win the 2024 Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire.

“And if you look at the most recent poll in New Hampshire, I'm in second place in New Hampshire at 14%... And so I absolutely believe I can win New Hampshire.”

Ron DeSantis’s 2024 presidential campaign will fail and end in a ‘withering,’ embarrassing fashion rather than in a competitive finish for the nomination.

“I and I was very clear early on that his campaign was DOA, and I think that that's probably just going to he's going to have a a withering kind of embarrassing end to the campaign, unfortunately for him.”

If Chris Christie does not adopt more heterodox policy positions, the effective contest for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination will narrow to Donald Trump versus Vivek Ramaswamy.

“If he embraces those heterodoxy because he believes in them, he's he has a chance. But if he doesn't, it's going to be Trump versus Vivek.”

There is a high likelihood that Hunter Biden will be convicted and incarcerated before the 2024 U.S. presidential election, potentially with additional evidence of corruption emerging that implicates Joe Biden.

“I think there's a very good chance that Biden's son... He's in jail by the time the election comes around, which I think also speaks very poorly to the risk that there is some clear links of corruption that come out.”

Hunter Biden will be in jail by the time of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and this will be associated with clear links of corruption becoming public.

“He's in jail by the time the election comes around, which I think also speaks very poorly to the risk that there is some clear links of corruption that come out.”

If evidence emerges that suggests serious Hunter Biden corruption, Republican megadonors will heavily fund super PACs that will run widespread anti-Biden advertising across U.S. airwaves during the 2024 election cycle.

“you can bet that every single Republican mega-donor Megadonor is going to come out of the woodwork to fund a super PAC that's going to blast the airwaves all across the country with that content. So that's, I think, a foregone conclusion.”

The Hunter Biden case under Special Counsel David Weiss will move to trial quickly (well before the 2024 election).

“And if David Weiss acts this decisively and it moves to trial quickly, which I suspect it will, this is all bad news for Biden.”

The U.S. Department of Justice will indict Hunter Biden on federal gun charges in September 2023.

“Justice Department is believed to indict Hunter on gun charges this month.”

Ongoing federal investigations into Hunter Biden will publicly establish the truth about his activities: whether or not he acted as an unregistered foreign agent and whether or not there were links and communications involving his father, Joe Biden, will be clearly revealed before the legal process concludes (expected prior to or around the 2024 election cycle).

“So I think it's going to come out I think at this point. No, they're looking at both. Everybody will have the truth. If if the Bidens are truly not guilty, that will be clearly established now in this process. But if he was acting as an unregistered agent of these foreign governments. That is also going to come out. And if there were links between him and his father and communications, that's also going to come out, I think that.”

Prosecutors will eventually bring well-prepared charges related to Hunter Biden’s foreign lobbying/tax issues after taking additional time to build the case.

“I think it takes time. I think they will thoughtfully put it together, but.”

If a Republican wins the next U.S. presidency (in 2024), that administration will reopen or further pursue the Hunter Biden-related investigations if David Weiss’s resolution is not seen as conclusive.

“No, but I think I think David Weiss is under such a microscope right now. The idea that he doesn't act conclusively here, I think, would be a huge problem. And then the next president, if it's Republican, will reopen it.”

Neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump will ultimately make it to the effective “starting line” of the 2024 general election campaign (i.e., at least one of them will not be an active, official major-party nominee running in the general election).

“I don't know that Biden makes it to the starting line, nor do I think Trump makes it to the starting line. And so that changes everything.”

The 2024 U.S. presidential election outcome will be determined primarily by moderate voters and by women voters who are upset about the overturning of Roe v. Wade; these two blocs will play a significant role in deciding the result.

“I think the election will be once again determined by moderates. And I think women who are still very much upset about the Roe v Wade issue. And I think those two things are going to play a significant role.”

The All-In Podcast will not record a regular episode the week of the 2023 All-In Summit; instead, about 20 guest episodes recorded at the summit will be released on X (Twitter) and YouTube at a cadence of roughly one episode every one to two days, resulting in roughly 20 days of consecutive content releases after the summit.

“next week is the All In summit and we're not going to tape next week. So you get a week off from the pod while we, uh, bank, I think like 20 amazing, amazing guests... Freiburg will be releasing the episodes on Twitter and YouTube... I think you're going to drop them every day or every two days. Freiburg something in that sort of pace. So you got 20 days of content coming at you”