E12: Biden wins, Pfizer vaccine, markets rip, Trump's next act, COVID endgame scenarios & more

Post‑election 2020 legal challenges by the Trump campaign will almost all fail, and Joe Biden will in fact take office as the next U.S. president on Inauguration Day 2021.

“I think there's a series of court challenges we can talk about. I think that they're unlikely to prevail. Very, very unlikely. I think Joe Biden will be the next president.” View on YouTube

Around the 2024 election cycle, Donald Trump will publicly and repeatedly assert that the 2020 presidential election was "stolen" from him, citing the timing of COVID‑19 vaccine announcements as part of his justification.

“on this news alone, Trump in four years will be able to claim on some level that this was a stolen election.” View on YouTube

Even after COVID‑19 vaccines and cheap testing are widely available, U.S. society will not fully return to pre‑2020 norms; for many years (effectively permanently relative to pre‑COVID life), large venues will continue measures such as temperature checks and mask requirements, and K‑12 schools will routinely test students for infection.

“Yeah, I don't think you ever get there...there will be a lot about the way we live that's going to be, you know, kind of permanently scarred and permanently changed here for a while, whether it is taking people's temperatures at football games, uh, wearing masks and, you know, farmer's markets, who knows?...kids are going to go to school and get tested regularly, and they're going to do all sorts of stuff that we would have never dreamed imaginable in a free country a year ago. Um, and I think that's permanent.” View on YouTube

The U.S. will not return to more than roughly 80% of pre‑COVID social and economic normality until sometime in 2022 (possibly as late as 2023), due to the time required to scale vaccine production and distribution.

“I think that the best will get back to is sort of this 80% state, and I don't think it happens until probably 2022 and maybe 2023, but probably 2022, because you have to remember, like we have to ramp up now, billions of vaccine production like this is a nontrivial path from here to quote unquote, mass market.” View on YouTube

By summer 2021, COVID‑19 will largely cease to be a major active concern in day‑to‑day life ("a distant bad memory"), after 1–2 quarters of transition, and social life and the global economy will snap back quickly, with a pronounced surge in partying and in‑person socializing for several months once vaccines, treatments, and testing are widely available.

“Yeah, I guess, I guess I am. I think COVID's going to be a distant memory by next summer. I think we'll have 1 to 2 quarters of transition, but I think that once the vaccines are widely available, plus the treatment and the testings for the people who slipped through the cracks, um, yeah, I tend to think things are going to snap back very fast and Covid will just be this bad memory, a very distant bad memory. And I think, in fact, I think things may bounce back the other way. Um, everyone having been cooped up and afraid of getting some life threatening illness are going to come out of this really wanting to party. I think the whole world's going to be like Tel Aviv for, you know, a few months or something.” View on YouTube

Within a few years after 2020 (by the mid‑2020s), COVID‑19 will be so far in the past that many people will look back and question why it caused such political damage to Trump and why society was so afraid of it.

“a few years from now, people could ask, wait, why? Why was it again that Trump lost, you know, um, you know, this Covid thing will be it will be so in the rear view mirror that we'll wonder why we were so afraid of it.” View on YouTube

By summer 2021, large in‑person parties and festivals such as raves and Burning Man will resume, with Burning Man 2021 experiencing exceptionally high attendance and intensity compared to prior years ("the greatest Burning Man ever").

“I think like David. Come the summer of next summer, people are going to be at a rave with freibergs, you know, custom made Molly or whatever he's making during this downtime going absolutely bonkers. I think Burning Man next year becomes like the the greatest Burning Man ever. It'll be it'll be the burn of of of all burns.” View on YouTube

The January 5, 2021 Georgia U.S. Senate runoffs will become the most expensive Senate runoff elections in U.S. history, with total spending on the races exceeding $100 million (and potentially reaching $100–200 million), especially on political advertising in Georgia.

“I think we're going to see literally the biggest, the biggest funding for a Senate runoff race in history, by far. Don't you think? Zach's, like, probably north of $100 million being spent, maybe 100 to $200 million being spent on advertisements in Georgia to try and get people to go vote one way or the other.” View on YouTube

Conditional on Democrats winning both Georgia Senate runoff races on January 5, 2021 and thereby securing effective control of the U.S. Senate (50–50 with Vice President as tiebreaker), U.S. equity markets could decline by approximately 30–40% within the following six months (by mid‑2021).

“if the Democrats look like they're getting much more money into the state and they're actually going to, you know, get people to the polls and to the voting booths and actually get into this runoff on January 5th and actually flip, um, get both of those seats to be, uh, um, uh, to be blue. Uh, it's going to be a very different market environment. I mean, you could see the market drop by 30, 40% in the next six months.” View on YouTube

Donald Trump will continue his election court challenges for a few weeks and effectively end them (i.e., the contest of the result will be over) by Thanksgiving 2020, with courts ultimately ruling against him or throwing out his challenges.

“I think he has to run out these court challenges, which will take a few weeks, but I predict by Thanksgiving... I see the court ultimately ruling against him or throwing it out.” View on YouTube

If Donald Trump chooses to run for president in the 2024 election, he will likely win the Republican Party’s presidential nomination in 2024.

“if he wants to run four years from now, um, I think he probably gets the Republican nomination again.” View on YouTube

Donald Trump will not run for president again in 2024 (0% chance he runs).

“What's the percentage chance, Chamath that he runs again in four years? ... Zero.” View on YouTube

After leaving office, Donald Trump will be based in New York, will effectively acquire or own a law firm to defend himself, and his post‑presidency activities will generate on the order of $100 million per month in income.

“He's going to be in New York. He's gonna buy a law firm because he's going to need a law firm to keep everyone at bay. And he's going to be probably printing 100 million bucks a month” View on YouTube

After leaving office, Donald Trump will definitely launch a media business and will attempt to be a political kingmaker within the Republican Party.

“I think he's definitely going to launch a media business and, uh, he'll, he'll try to become kingmaker.” View on YouTube

In the coming years, Donald Trump will become a kingmaker in Republican politics by launching a Fox News competitor combined with a Tea Party–style grassroots movement, such that Republican candidates will generally need his endorsement or face primary challenges from Trump-aligned candidates.

“I think. I think he will become a kingmaker. And Republican politics, he will launch a competitor to Fox News, but it will also be Fox News hybridized with a grassroots movement like the Tea Party. And every Republican will need to go get his endorsement or they will be primaried by the Trump party.” View on YouTube

Any Trump-backed media network that attempts to compete with Fox News will fail to secure strong backing, will resemble a weaker version of Breitbart, and will shut down within 24 months of its launch.

“Not only is he not going to be a kingmaker, he will not be able to get the backing for this network. It'll be Breitbart Lite, and it'll be shut down within 24 months.” View on YouTube

By December 15, 2020, Donald Trump will have effectively ended his attempts to contest the election result; the post‑election dispute will be resolved by that date.

“he'll be out by December 15th, meaning it'll this will all be done.” View on YouTube

Donald Trump’s postelection lawsuits will mostly or entirely fail, and if the election dispute reaches the U.S. Supreme Court, the Court will rule against him; at that point Trump will accept the result (even if he does not formally concede).

“I expect that the obstacles he has to overcome are too large and he will lose these lawsuits. It might go to the Supreme Court... I think that, you know, Trump will accept the result. He may not concede, but he will accept the result when it comes from the Supreme Court.” View on YouTube

If the 2020 presidential election dispute reaches the U.S. Supreme Court, the Court’s decision against Trump will be by a margin of at least 7–2, and possibly 8–1 or 9–0.

“I believe if it gets to the Supreme Court, it will be at least 7 to 2, if not eight 1 or 9 zero” View on YouTube

The City and County of San Francisco will file for municipal bankruptcy at least once within the next 10 years from November 2020 (i.e., by November 2030).

“Mark my words, San Francisco will file for bankruptcy in the next ten years.” View on YouTube

The City and County of San Francisco will file for municipal bankruptcy at least once within 10–15 years from November 2020 (i.e., by November 2035).

“Maybe 15, maybe 15 years. But yeah, ten, 15 years.” View on YouTube