From roughly November 2025, public equity markets will be in a risk-off phase for 2–3 months (through approximately January 2026), and by February 2026 overall market sentiment and positioning will have shifted back to a clear risk-on mode.
“I think we well said. We are getting in the risk off phase for at least 2 or 3 months. We will be back firmly in risk on mode in February, is my suspicion.”
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Explanation
Markets did see periods of choppiness into early 2026, though a clean, universally agreed risk-off-to-risk-on regime shift precisely on this timeline is difficult to confirm.
OpenAI’s revenue in December 2025 will be at least $1.666 billion, implying an annualized (forward) revenue run rate of at least $20 billion by the end of 2025.
“The first thing he says is that we will we? Meaning OpenAI will end the year on a $20 billion forward run rate, which means December revenue will be 1.666 billion at least.”
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Explanation
OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate topped $20 billion by the end of 2025, matching the prediction.
OpenAI’s annual revenue will reach approximately $100 billion within the next “couple of years” from late 2025, i.e., by the end of 2027.
“we think we're going to have 100 billion in revenues over the course of the next couple of years.”
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Explanation
The roughly two-year window (to around the end of 2027) for OpenAI reaching approximately $100 billion in annual revenue has not yet elapsed, though the company's run rate was tracking strongly upward by mid-2026.
By the November 2026 U.S. midterm elections, the U.S. macro environment will not simultaneously feature: inflation above 3%, higher youth unemployment than at the time of this podcast (Nov 2025), GDP growth around only 1.5%, and persistently high interest rates; instead, conditions will be materially better than that scenario.
“If you're right, and we have inflation over 3% next November and you have higher youth unemployment and the economy is only growing at 1.5%, and interest rates stay high. Then I think it will be a rough midterm for the Republicans. I don't actually think that's the flight path for the country.”
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Explanation
The November 2026 midterm elections had not yet occurred as of mid-2026, so this macroeconomic conditional prediction cannot yet be evaluated.
Brad Gerstner
Too Early
attribution: medium
00:39:46
economymarkets
Between late 2025 and November 2026, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates 3–4 times, and U.S. real GDP growth will re-accelerate relative to its current pace in late 2025.
“I actually think you are going to get 3 to 4 rate cuts. I actually think you are going to see a re-acceleration of GDP.”
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Explanation
The full window through November 2026 had not yet elapsed as of mid-2026, and the exact count of Fed rate cuts and GDP reacceleration over that specific period remains to be confirmed.
From late 2025 through at least November 2026, U.S. inflation (e.g., CPI year-over-year) will trend downward from its then-current level (~3%), rather than rising or remaining elevated.
“I happen to think that inflation is going to continue rolling over.”
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Explanation
US inflation trended in a mixed, roughly sideways-to-modestly-lower pattern through late 2025 and into 2026 rather than clearly and steadily rolling over.
In the near term following early November 2025, the price of Bitcoin will fall below $100,000 and, after breaking that level, will decline an additional approximately 5–10% before stabilizing or reversing.
“Bitcoin is about to break through 100,000 to the downside, which I think is a psychological barrier that probably has another 5 or 10% more to run.”
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Explanation
Bitcoin did not sustain a break below $100,000 with an additional 5-10% decline in the near term following early November 2025; it remained volatile but did not confirm this specific downside breakdown pattern.
At the next point in time when the Democratic Party holds the presidency and majorities in both the U.S. House and Senate (a federal trifecta), Senate Democrats will vote to abolish the legislative filibuster using a simple-majority (50+1) rules change.
“And we know the Democrats will do it the next time the Democrats have the trifecta. They will absolutely get rid of the filibuster.”
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Explanation
Democrats had not regained a federal trifecta as of mid-2026, so this prediction about eliminating the filibuster cannot yet be tested.
Whenever the Democratic Party next regains unified control of the federal government (presidency plus House and Senate majorities), they will eliminate the Senate legislative filibuster.
“And if and when? Because at some point, Democrats will at some point return to power, you know, they're going to get rid of the filibuster.”
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Explanation
Democrats had not regained unified federal control as of mid-2026, so this prediction remains untestable.
Unknown J
Unvalidated
attribution: low
01:07:26
economyaipolitics
In calendar year 2025 in the United States, (1) economic growth will accelerate significantly, driven largely by deregulation and AI adoption, and (2) there will be a dramatic, measurable rise in socialist political movements, with increased breadth and depth of support relative to prior years.
“I actually think my contrarian belief is that we'll see a rise, a dramatic rise in socialist movements in 2025. In the United States, we're going to see an unleashing of economic growth because of deregulation and AI... So I think that we will see an increase in the breadth and depth of socialist movements in the United States.”
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If Republicans, despite currently holding unified control of the federal government, fail to deliver tangible policy results due to the shutdown and filibuster constraints, socialist-aligned Democrats will win national power within roughly three years (by about the 2028 election cycle).
“Otherwise, these socialists are going to take over in three years.”
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Explanation
The roughly three-year window (to around the 2028 election cycle) has not yet elapsed.
During Mamdani's term as mayor of New York City, he will fail to implement essentially all of his major campaign promises (e.g., rent freezes, free public transit, higher taxes on the rich as described), and New York City will experience severe governance and quality-of-life deterioration that can reasonably be characterized as "total, complete, utter chaos."
“Nothing he says he's going to do is going to happen. It's going to be total, complete, utter chaos.”
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Explanation
Zohran Mamdani took office as NYC mayor in January 2026 and faced significant implementation challenges and political friction on his agenda, though 'total, complete, utter chaos' is a subjective characterization not yet clearly borne out this early in his term.
The winner of the 2028 U.S. presidential election will be a candidate whose platform and political energy give roughly equal prominence to large-scale infrastructure/industrial investment (e.g., data centers or similar) and to aggressive expansion of affordable housing.
“I think the person who wins 2028 is the person who puts as much energy into, say, building data centers or ballrooms as puts into building affordable housing.”
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Explanation
The 2028 US presidential election has not yet occurred, so this prediction cannot yet be evaluated.
Unknown H
Unvalidated
attribution: low
01:19:53
politicsgovernment
Over the next several years, under centrist Democrat Daniel Lurie, San Francisco’s governance and conditions will measurably improve, while under Mamdani, to the extent he is able to implement his agenda, New York City’s governance and conditions will measurably deteriorate, creating a clear positive-vs-negative contrast between the two cities.
“That's going to be a really interesting a B test for America, because I think San Francisco is trending in the right direction. I think that, you know, to the extent that Mamdani can do any of these things he's talking about, he's going to put New York City on a very, very bad track.”
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