Wed, 29 Dec 2021 08:56:27 +0000
In 2022, Ron DeSantis will win re-election as Governor of Florida by a comfortable (non-close) margin and, by the end of 2022, will be regarded as the national frontrunner for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination.
“My biggest political winner for 2022. Prediction. I predict my man, Ron DeSantis will be the big winner. He's up for re-election in Florida...this time. I think he's going to cruise to reelection quite handily and become the national frontrunner on the GOP side.” View on YouTube
In 2022, the Omicron variant of COVID-19 will prove effectively unstoppable in the United States, leading much of the country to shift toward DeSantis-style, less-restrictive COVID policies.
“I think the rest of the country is going to come around to his point of view because the unstoppable of Omicron next year.” View on YouTube
Over the course of 2022, Vladimir Putin will increase Russia’s geopolitical leverage, especially in relation to NATO, benefitting from rising tensions between the US and China and becoming a stronger global player than in the prior few years.
“Vladimir Putin um, I think Putin's going to benefit from the rising conflict between the US and China...And I think Putin will become a stronger player on the global stage, uh, particularly as it relates to his relationship with NATO. Uh, over the next year.” View on YouTube
In 2022, Xi Jinping will consolidate power such that he is effectively ‘ruler for life’ in China and will significantly expand his political dominance both domestically and internationally, making him the biggest political winner of 2022.
“my worldwide, uh, biggest political winner for 2022 is XI Jinping...2022 marks the first year where he's essentially really ruler for life...I think it's going to be a he's going to run roughshod not just domestically but also internationally.” View on YouTube
In the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, (1) Joe Biden’s Democratic Party will lose, and (2) the January 6th investigations will severely damage Donald Trump politically, leading him to decide not to run for president again.
“I went with Ron DeSantis with you sacks...And I think Trump is not going to want to run. And that brings me to my biggest political loser for 2022...I think Biden is going to lose the midterms. And I think Trump is going to get destroyed with this January 6th thing and bow out and not run again.” View on YouTube
In the 2022 midterms there will be a Republican ‘red wave’: Democrats will lose control of the U.S. House of Representatives, and shortly after that loss Nancy Pelosi will announce her retirement from Congress and/or from House leadership.
“my pick for Biggest Political Loser next year is Nancy Pelosi. I there's a red wave coming. The Democrats for sure are going to lose the House that is baked into the cake. And I predict she will announce her retirement shortly after that.” View on YouTube
During 2022, the United States’ influence on the global geopolitical stage (socially, politically, and economically) will materially decline from its prior level.
“I'm honestly a little bit worried about the United States influence on kind of a global stage...I kind of have the US and its and its role on the global geopolitical stage.” View on YouTube
In 2022, the progressive left faction of the Democratic Party will suffer a significant political backlash from mainstream voters, making them one of the biggest political losers of the year (e.g., through losses, marginalization, or reduced influence).
“My pick is the progressive left, um, as a class, because I think these guys are being exposed basically for just being laughingstocks...So they are, I think, going to pay a pretty heavy political price for mainstream voters in 22.” View on YouTube
Over the course of 2022, populist sentiment (anti-elitist politics) in the U.S. and globally will intensify and become more prominent, not fade, influencing both left- and right-wing politics.
“I think the voice of populism is only going to swell over the next year...and I think that's going to shift very quickly” View on YouTube
Beginning in 2022 and continuing for decades, small businesses and smaller firms that compete with today’s dominant megacorporations will outperform and gain significant opportunity and success relative to those large incumbents.
“I think that if you were on the side of the David versus these Goliaths over the next year, you're going to have, well, frankly, over the next several decades. But starting really next year, you're going to do really well.” View on YouTube
Starting in 2022, Visa, Mastercard, and similar traditional payment-rail companies that earn 2–3% transaction fees have reached their peak market capitalization and, over roughly the next decade, will see their market caps materially decline relative to a basket of successful Web3/crypto payments projects (making a short-Visa/Mastercard, long-crypto-payments spread trade highly profitable).
“this is the year you can put on what probably will be the most profitable spread trade of my lifetime, which is to be short these companies and that anybody that basically lives off of this 2 or 3% tax and be long, well thought out Web3, crypto projects...because I think this is their peak market cap.” View on YouTube
If Stripe goes public in 2022 (via IPO or direct listing), it will debut at a valuation exceeding Alibaba’s ~$230 billion IPO valuation, making it the highest-valued tech IPO/listing in history.
“I am actually going to go with stripe...We are hearing rumors that stripe might, you know, kind of or think that they bankers think that they might be able to break that. And so stripes IPO could be the biggest tech IPO ever...And we could see that become the highest valuation tech IPO ever.” View on YouTube
'Rise of the rest'—the migration of people and industry from high-tax coastal states like California and New York to zero/low-tax states such as Florida, Texas, and Tennessee—will accelerate in 2022 compared to prior years.
“I got rise of the rest...I think it's a trend that's been going on, but it's going to keep getting bigger next year...I think that trend is only going to pick up steam now that salt is dead.” View on YouTube
In 2022, reshoring of American industry from China to the U.S. will meaningfully increase, with new facilities and investments disproportionately going to ‘rest of U.S.’ states like Texas rather than to California or New York, reinforcing the ‘rise of the rest’ trend.
“as we decouple from China and bring our supply chain home...that is going to be a big factor in the rise of the rest.” View on YouTube
In 2022, Disney will be a major corporate winner: its business (including Disney+, theme parks, and IP like Marvel/Star Wars) will experience a significant surge in performance, leading to share-price and/or valuation outperformance relative to expectations at the end of 2021.
“Disney was my biggest corporate winner for 2022...I think Disney is going to have a huge surge. I think they're undervalued.” View on YouTube
In 2022, Millennials and Gen Z in the U.S. will see substantial gains in economic power and independence—through increased entrepreneurship, job mobility, and investing/trading success—making them the biggest demographic economic ‘winners’ of the year.
“my number one for this category of biggest business winner for 2022 was Millennials and Gen Z...I think that those two generations have woken up, and I think they're going to be the biggest winners in 2022” View on YouTube
During 2022, there will be a major shakeout in crypto: most projects that fail to ship a real, usable product in 2022 will lose significant value and investor interest.
“Biggest business loser for 2022...I think crypto projects that actually don't deliver a product in 2022 are just going to be, um, lost...it's going to be a big shake out there.” View on YouTube
In 2022, the crypto bubble will effectively burst: roughly 90% of existing crypto projects/tokens will collapse or experience major declines in value, especially as rising interest rates force deleveraging, while a small minority of projects will endure and appreciate long term.
“I said, crypto bubble will burst. There's a lot of scammy nonsense going on. 90% of these projects are not going to yield value and fundamentals...I'd say 90% of them are probably going to start to blow up next year.” View on YouTube
The disruption of traditional card networks (Visa, Mastercard, Amex and similar payment rails) by Web3/crypto-based payment infrastructure will occur quickly, with major impact visible within about one year from 2022 rather than over many years.
“Last point on this. This is not one where I think this disruption happens slow. I think it happens swiftly.” View on YouTube
The U.S. Federal Reserve will end its quantitative easing program by March 2022, and from April 2022 onward the absence of new QE liquidity will cause significant declines or underperformance in asset classes that benefited most from excess liquidity (e.g., collectibles, art, crypto, and some growth stocks).
“the fed is going to stop quantitative easing or so they have said they are. I guess March will be the last month in which they do this QE. So starting in April there won't be any of this liquidity pumped into the system...the losers are going to be any of these asset classes that are heavily dependent on or have benefited from all this excess liquidity sloshing through the system.” View on YouTube
The Fed ended its quantitative easing asset-purchase program in March 2022 exactly as predicted, following Powell's January 2022 confirmation of the taper timeline, and followed up with quantitative tightening starting in June 2022.
In June 2022, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will launch a primary challenge against Chuck Schumer for his U.S. Senate seat in New York, and she will lose that primary.
“I think that all of this pressure in on the progressive left will manifest in the Chosen One. AOC deciding to step up and run against Schumer in the primary in June of 2022, and she will lose.” View on YouTube
By the end of 2022, following a Republican ‘red wave’ in the midterms, the Democratic Party establishment and major Democratic voices will openly revive and praise Bill Clinton’s centrist ‘triangulation’ approach as a model for the party’s future.
“I predict that there will be a strange new respect for Bill Clinton in the Democratic Party by the end of next year...after the red wave, there'll be a recognition that they need to move towards the center.” View on YouTube
In the November 2022 U.S. midterm elections, Hispanic and Asian-American voters, as a group, will support Republican candidates at significantly higher rates than in recent election cycles, effectively behaving as Republican-leaning swing blocs.
“it's already the case in polling that Hispanics and Asian Americans now are swing voters. And I think you're going to see in November 2022 that they go for Republicans in big numbers.” View on YouTube
In 2022, the world will see the beginning of a period of major global conflict, likely manifesting in new or escalated proxy wars or military confrontations, potentially involving Ukraine and/or Taiwan.
“The first one is, I think...we'll see the start of, um, great global conflict...you could see proxy wars, uh, and proxy conflicts that arise, sort of like what we're seeing, you know, maybe something in the Ukraine, maybe something related to Taiwan.” View on YouTube
By the end of 2022, China will have taken enough visible action (e.g., nuclear build-out, policy commitments) that it will be widely perceived internationally as a leading nation in climate change mitigation, rather than primarily as the main climate ‘foe’.
“China may solidify its position next year...as a leader in climate change mitigation...Imagine if over the next year, some of what they're doing pays off. And everyone says, my gosh, China is leading the world in climate change mitigation.” View on YouTube
There is a meaningful (though low-probability) chance that in 2022 the world will experience a major natural catastrophe (e.g., extreme weather, geologic or astronomical event) that is large enough to significantly impact markets and/or global affairs.
“my third is very random, which is some sort of natural catastrophe...We haven't had one in a while...maybe we will” View on YouTube
In 2022, the United States will experience a booming economy and a notable increase in global influence and perceived exceptionalism, contrary to narratives of American decline, making 2022 a broadly ‘great year’ for the U.S.
“My most contrarian belief is...that American influence and exceptionalism is going to soar...our economy is going to. Boom. Uh, and we will prove once again that we're the greatest country and economy in the world...I think it's going to be a great year. I think it's going to be a great year.” View on YouTube
In 2022, major U.S. ‘prestige’ media outlets (e.g., NYT, Washington Post, CNN, MSNBC) will markedly shift their COVID-19 narrative from alarmist to accommodative—emphasizing that COVID must be lived with, likening it more to a cold/flu, downplaying eradication or lockdown strategies, and implicitly disavowing their earlier pro-lockdown stance—in order to politically benefit Democrats ahead of the midterms.
“I think the media the media is going to pull a total 180 on Covid...after pumping out Covid fear porn for two years, they're going to change their tune next year...Some of the things you're going to hear, we need to live with Covid. It can't be eradicated. They're even going to say it's it's more like a cold or flu...They're going to memory hold their support for lockdowns...Therefore, the media will say it's over.” View on YouTube
By the end of 2022, the All-In Podcast’s weekly audience will surpass the average viewership of most CNBC shows and some CNN shows.
“There's more than a million people a week that listen to this. We've we've far exceeded MSNBC's average viewership. We're probably going to pass, you know, most CNBC shows and some CNN shows by the end of next year.” View on YouTube
In 2022, mainstream media coverage of COVID will substantially reverse from fear/hysteria to the opposite narrative, driven by the midterm election; outlets will consciously contradict and memory-hole their prior COVID narratives to support the election outcome they prefer.
“my prediction, like I said, is that it all flips next year. Why? Because there's an election. And the way the media figures out what it's going to, what its narrative is going to be, is they start with the election result they want, and then they reverse engineer the narrative that they think is going to help achieve that election result. And if it means contradicting what they said yesterday, they will memory hole what they said yesterday in order to get on board with the new narrative. That is what's going to happen.” View on YouTube
In 2022, California will have a major statewide ballot initiative for school choice that would give parents a ~$13,000-per-pupil state voucher usable at any accredited school; it will be one of the biggest election issues in California (and possibly nationally) that year, with over $100 million spent in total by both sides.
“Oh, let me make a prediction in that regard. Next year, there's going to be a ballot initiative in California to for school choice. And the way it's going to work is that I think there's something like $13,000 spent per pupil in California. ... There's going to be there's going to be a ballot initiative that says that any parent who wants to send their kid to an accredited school can get a voucher for $13,000 from the state that's going to be on the ballot, I predict. ... I predict it will be the big, big election in California and maybe the nation next year. And I think more than 100 million will be spent on both sides of that thing.” View on YouTube
For calendar year 2022, a basket of battery metals (lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite) will be the best-performing asset class among major investable assets.
“This is simple. This will be battery metals. Uh lithium nickel cobalt graphite. Put them in a basket. You can belong these things.” View on YouTube
In 2022, Series A venture investments will outperform other venture stages (seed and growth) on a returns/multiples basis and will be the best area to invest in within venture capital.
“I just said series A venture because it's pretty unoriginal. It's what I do. I think growth got a little bit overfunded and overheated. And I think the seed stage also there's like. So there was so many new seed investors. Again, it might have been partially because of excess liquidity. So series A is still the choke point. And I think it's still the best area to invest in. Innovation is not going to stop. There's going to be great series A investments next year.” View on YouTube
In 2022, early-stage startup equity (roughly pre-Series-A stage) will be the best-performing asset class among major asset options.
“I also picked early stage startups because that's where the magic happens. I picked early stage like right before series A... So my choice for best performing asset of 2022 is still early stage startups.” View on YouTube
In 2022, global geopolitical conflict will increase, and in that environment energy commodities, energy stocks, and defense stocks will significantly outperform broader markets; Bitcoin may also gain a role as a defensive asset in portfolios.
“I tried to highlight, uh, and continue my, uh, kind of contrarian bet that we're going to see increased global conflict next year, again, driven by, you know, incumbents trying to hold on to political office and increase inflation and fueling economic growth and the American response to China. So in a world of increased global conflict, I think assets that do really well are energy, commodities and energy stocks. I recently made a big bet on energy stocks. Defense stocks. And it used to be a gold. It could be the case that bitcoin uh you know sees a role as being a defensive position in portfolios in a world of, uh, of war and conflict.” View on YouTube
In 2022, a major trend will be the rapid rise of peer-to-peer payment systems that erode traditional financial payment rails, with the leading innovations and adoption emerging from Africa.
“Peer to peer payments. Um, the destruction of traditional rails. Uh, it will come out of Africa.” View on YouTube
In 2022, an intensifying political conflict (“civil war”) between progressive and pragmatic/liberal Democrats will visibly escalate, with high-profile clashes in cities like San Francisco, Philadelphia, New York City, and at the federal level (e.g., over figures like Joe Manchin).
“This is where I had the civil war between progressives and pragmatic liberals. Um, so building on what Chamath said, you're already seeing this in the feud between London Breed and Chesa Boudin. That is really going to, I think, blossom next year. We have not heard the last of that. You saw it in Philadelphia, where the mayor, Michael Nutter, took on Larry Krasner. I think you're going to see it in New York City between Eric Adams and these Manhattan elites. Um, and you also saw in Washington, D.C., where the progressives were blaming Manchin for, you know, losing the build back better. So this is a civil war that's going to continue.” View on YouTube
In 2022, the Republican Party will remain relatively united (with no major internal civil war), but in 2023, during the Republican presidential primary—especially if Donald Trump runs—significant internal conflict and turmoil (“all hell’s going to break loose”) will occur within the party.
“Not not yet, because Trump isn't on the ballot in 2022. So I actually think the Republican Party is going to be surprisingly united in 2022. I think where the trouble might come in is when we have a Republican primary in 2023, and especially if Trump runs, then you know all hell's going to break loose.” View on YouTube
In 2022, there will be a major “gold rush” into biotech focused on Yamanaka factor–based cellular reprogramming and longevity; high-profile breakthroughs and discoveries in this area will begin to be published, leading to magazine covers and mainstream media (e.g., 60 Minutes) declaring it a “fountain of youth,” and 2022 will be widely characterized as the year of Yamanaka-based reprogramming, comparable in hype/importance to the recombinant-DNA boom around Genentech.
“My biggest, uh, anticipated trend for 2022 is going to be a gold rush in biotech into, um, what I think will become the cover story on magazines throughout the year that humans have discovered the fountain of youth. ... there will be magazine covers and, you know, uh, 60 minutes articles, stories and all sorts of stuff will start to happen in 2022 saying, oh my gosh, as because the amount of money that's gone in in this year is going to cause breakthroughs and discoveries to start to get published about next year. And when that starts to happen and the media and the PR cycles start to kick up, you'll see this become the year of Yamanaka factor based reprogramming. And everyone's saying it's going to be the biggest gold rush, um, in biotech since recombinant DNA was used by Genentech in the in the 80s and 90s.” View on YouTube
By the end of 2022, U.S. accredited investor rules will have materially changed to allow people to qualify by passing a test rather than meeting income/wealth thresholds, and a clear legal regulatory framework for crypto will be implemented; together these regulatory shifts will enable significantly expanded, globally accessible capital formation mechanisms (e.g., broader syndicates, DAOs, tokenized fund interests).
“I had, uh, most anticipated trend of 2022 being the accredited investor. Laws are going to change and evolve. And it might just be you take a test and you're now accredited. It doesn't matter if you won the lottery or you make 200,000 a year, and a legal crypto framework is going to happen, I think, at the same time. So those regulations combined are going to empower really interesting capital formation, uh, on a global basis...” View on YouTube
Amazon’s big-budget Tolkien-based prequel series (The Lord of the Rings universe show) will premiere in 2022.
“there's also this, um, token, uh, series that's coming out, the prequel, I think, that Amazon is spending $1 billion on. And I think that's landing in 2022.” View on YouTube
By the end of 2022, the All-In brand will have expanded beyond the podcast to include an in-person All-In Summit (in May, in Miami) and a broader ‘All-In Media’ operation that publishes written content and other media formats aimed at a large audience.
“It is the All in Summit in May in Miami and, uh, the the birth of all in media. So I think that we by the end of 2022, will have, um, published content. Written content? Not necessarily by us, but, uh, other forms of, uh, media interaction that get the truth out to a large swath of humanity.” View on YouTube
1) By the end of 2022, it will be possible (at least in some venues) to taste cell-based chicken meat, though it will be very expensive and not yet mass-market. 2) Within three years (by end of 2024), cell-based sushi products will be available for tasting. 3) Within 5–10 years (by 2027–2032), cell-based meat will be available at commercial scale, produced in labs without killing animals, and comparable in look and taste to conventional meat.
“But there is a tremendous amount of money going into this area, and we will devise artificially produced meat that will not be made by killing an animal, but will be made in a lab that looks and tastes identical. ... Just give us a year over. ... You'll have a piece of sushi in three years. You will have. You will be able to go taste chicken next year. It'll be very, very expensive. Okay, but cell based meat will be available at a commercial scale within the next 5 to 10 years.” View on YouTube