Thu, 20 Jun 2024 20:23:00 +0000
As of June 2024, David Friedberg believes Donald Trump is likely to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election and serve a second term.
“it looks like you're going to win a second term here.” View on YouTube
Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election and was sworn in for a second term in January 2025, confirming this prediction.
If the Democrats win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, they will significantly restrict domestic oil production, causing global oil prices to spike dramatically "through the roof" in the subsequent period.
“If this election were won by them, I can tell you right now you would be. We would see oil go through the roof because they would really close it up already.” View on YouTube
Oil prices did not spike dramatically after the 2024 election regardless of who won; global oil prices remained relatively range-bound to lower through 2025-2026 amid ample supply, and Trump himself pursued a 'drill baby drill' expansion agenda rather than facing Democratic restrictions.
If Donald Trump wins another term, early in his next administration he will effectively dismantle or drastically shrink the U.S. Department of Education and shift primary control of education and most associated federal funding back to the states.
“I'm going to very early in the administration. We're going to send education back to the states... Department of Education goes.” View on YouTube
Trump signed an executive order in March 2025 directing the dismantling of the Department of Education and shifting authority back toward the states, matching the prediction (though full legal elimination still requires Congress).
To maintain global leadership in artificial intelligence, the United States will need electric power generation capacity on the order of roughly 2–3 times its current level in the coming years.
“they need electricity at levels that nobody's ever experienced before to be successful, to be a leader in AI, the amount of electricity it needs, like double what we have right now and even triple what we have right now.” View on YouTube
US electricity demand growth projections tied to AI data centers through the mid-2020s to 2030s called for roughly doubling to tripling generation capacity, consistent with the prediction and driving major buildout plans across gas, nuclear, and renewables.
If Donald Trump is president again, he will not deploy American ground troops to fight in Ukraine under any circumstances, even if France or other NATO countries send their own troops.
“I would guarantee it. I wouldn't do it, no.” View on YouTube
The Trump administration did not deploy US ground troops to fight in Ukraine; US involvement remained limited to diplomatic, financial, and intelligence support rather than direct combat deployment.
As of June 20, 2024, Iran is likely to obtain a nuclear weapon within roughly 90 days (by around late September 2024).
“within 90 days or so, they're going to have and could have very well, a nuclear weapon.” View on YouTube
Iran had not obtained a nuclear weapon by late September 2024 or in the following two years; instead, Israeli and US strikes targeted Iran's nuclear facilities in June 2025 amid ongoing concerns about but no confirmed acquisition of a weapon.
If he returns to the presidency, Donald Trump will not support or sign a federal (national) abortion ban; abortion policy will remain at the state level during his term.
“No, I wouldn't support a national ban. No, I would not.” View on YouTube
Trump did not support or sign a federal abortion ban during his second term; abortion policy remained governed at the state level.
If Donald Trump returns to office, on his first day in the new term he will move to change U.S. immigration policy so that any foreign national who graduates from an accredited U.S. college (including two-year colleges and doctoral programs) automatically receives a green card allowing them to stay and work in the United States, thereby ending the practice of forcing such graduates to leave due to visa limits.
“what I want to do and what I will do is you graduate from a college, I think you should get automatically, as part of your diploma, a green card to be able to stay in this country... That is going to end on day one.” View on YouTube
No automatic green-card-with-diploma policy for college graduates was implemented; instead the Trump administration pursued restrictive immigration policies, including tighter rules on foreign student and skilled-worker visas.
If Donald Trump is elected again, he will fully release the remaining classified JFK assassination files early in his new term, effectively "immediately" upon taking office.
“it's going to be done early on... People more than anything else, they want the JFK files. We're going to release that immediately.” View on YouTube
The Trump administration released tens of thousands of pages of previously classified JFK assassination files in March 2025, early in the new term, matching the prediction.
If Joe Biden is able to implement his stated tax agenda, overall taxes (presumably on the relevant targeted groups) will increase to roughly four times their current level.
“You know, taxes are going to raise by four times if this guy has this plan.” View on YouTube
Biden did not win a second term to implement his tax agenda, so this conditional prediction about a fourfold tax increase was never put to the test.
Donald Trump, if reelected, will ultimately not implement the broad, aggressive tariff plan he is currently talking about on the campaign trail.
“Do we really buy he's going to do this tariff thing anyway. Like it seems like that's a bit of pandering, maybe to the voter base. It sounds like a great solution, right? But I don't think he's going to do it.” View on YouTube
Trump did implement a broad, aggressive tariff plan once reelected, including the April 2025 'Liberation Day' tariffs covering nearly all trading partners, contradicting the prediction that he would not follow through.
If Donald Trump attempts to implement his proposed tariff policy in a future term, his economic advisers will push for changes such that any eventual tariff measures will be significantly scaled back and limited to narrower parts of the economy compared to his current broad proposals.
“Once the economic advisers get together and look at the analysis and what this will do to costs of things, inflation will go up, etc., you know, maybe there's a rethink ultimately on how that's implemented and on what particular slices of the economy it's implemented. So I'm sure, as you point out, it probably gets toned down for this to, you know, to even become a reality.” View on YouTube
Trump's tariff plan was not meaningfully scaled back or narrowed; it was implemented broadly across nearly all trading partners and goods categories starting April 2025, contrary to the prediction of a toned-down rollout.