The United States will add at least as much new electric power generation capacity as China going forward under the Trump administration.
“Under the Trump administration, we will be adding at least as much electric capacity as China. We think we're going to catch them and maybe even have something a little bit extra.”
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Explanation
The opposite occurred: China added roughly 8x more power generation capacity than the US in 2025 alone (China's installed capacity grew 16.1% year-over-year vs. the US's projected 1.1% growth in 2026), and China's total installed capacity now exceeds the combined total of the US, EU, India, Japan, and Russia.
Within a few years, the United States will manufacture more automobiles domestically than at any point in its history.
“We're going to be making more cars than we made in the very beginning in the super prime... I think we're going to be topping any amount in a few years. We will be making more automobiles than we've ever made in the history of our country.”
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Explanation
US auto production is trending the opposite direction: 2025 production fell 2% to roughly 10 million light vehicles (well below the historical peak of roughly 12.8 million), and forecasts call for continued flat-to-declining output in 2026-2027, not a new all-time production record.
If the Democrats win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, they will significantly restrict domestic oil production, causing global oil prices to spike dramatically "through the roof" in the subsequent period.
“If this election were won by them, I can tell you right now you would be. We would see oil go through the roof because they would really close it up already.”
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Explanation
Oil prices did not spike dramatically after the 2024 election regardless of who won; global oil prices remained relatively range-bound to lower through 2025-2026 amid ample supply, and Trump himself pursued a 'drill baby drill' expansion agenda rather than facing Democratic restrictions.
If Donald Trump wins another term, early in his next administration he will effectively dismantle or drastically shrink the U.S. Department of Education and shift primary control of education and most associated federal funding back to the states.
“I'm going to very early in the administration. We're going to send education back to the states... Department of Education goes.”
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Explanation
Trump signed an executive order in March 2025 directing the dismantling of the Department of Education and shifting authority back toward the states, matching the prediction (though full legal elimination still requires Congress).
To maintain global leadership in artificial intelligence, the United States will need electric power generation capacity on the order of roughly 2–3 times its current level in the coming years.
“they need electricity at levels that nobody's ever experienced before to be successful, to be a leader in AI, the amount of electricity it needs, like double what we have right now and even triple what we have right now.”
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Explanation
US electricity demand growth projections tied to AI data centers through the mid-2020s to 2030s called for roughly doubling to tripling generation capacity, consistent with the prediction and driving major buildout plans across gas, nuclear, and renewables.
If Donald Trump is president again, he will not deploy American ground troops to fight in Ukraine under any circumstances, even if France or other NATO countries send their own troops.
“I would guarantee it. I wouldn't do it, no.”
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Explanation
The Trump administration did not deploy US ground troops to fight in Ukraine; US involvement remained limited to diplomatic, financial, and intelligence support rather than direct combat deployment.
As of June 20, 2024, Iran is likely to obtain a nuclear weapon within roughly 90 days (by around late September 2024).
“within 90 days or so, they're going to have and could have very well, a nuclear weapon.”
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Explanation
Iran had not obtained a nuclear weapon by late September 2024 or in the following two years; instead, Israeli and US strikes targeted Iran's nuclear facilities in June 2025 amid ongoing concerns about but no confirmed acquisition of a weapon.
If he returns to the presidency, Donald Trump will not support or sign a federal (national) abortion ban; abortion policy will remain at the state level during his term.
“No, I wouldn't support a national ban. No, I would not.”
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Explanation
Trump did not support or sign a federal abortion ban during his second term; abortion policy remained governed at the state level.
If Donald Trump returns to office, on his first day in the new term he will move to change U.S. immigration policy so that any foreign national who graduates from an accredited U.S. college (including two-year colleges and doctoral programs) automatically receives a green card allowing them to stay and work in the United States, thereby ending the practice of forcing such graduates to leave due to visa limits.
“what I want to do and what I will do is you graduate from a college, I think you should get automatically, as part of your diploma, a green card to be able to stay in this country... That is going to end on day one.”
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Explanation
No automatic green-card-with-diploma policy for college graduates was implemented; instead the Trump administration pursued restrictive immigration policies, including tighter rules on foreign student and skilled-worker visas.
If Donald Trump is elected again, he will fully release the remaining classified JFK assassination files early in his new term, effectively "immediately" upon taking office.
“it's going to be done early on... People more than anything else, they want the JFK files. We're going to release that immediately.”
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Explanation
The Trump administration released tens of thousands of pages of previously classified JFK assassination files in March 2025, early in the new term, matching the prediction.
If Joe Biden is able to implement his stated tax agenda, overall taxes (presumably on the relevant targeted groups) will increase to roughly four times their current level.
“You know, taxes are going to raise by four times if this guy has this plan.”
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Explanation
Biden did not win a second term to implement his tax agenda, so this conditional prediction about a fourfold tax increase was never put to the test.