Sat, 24 Jun 2023 01:14:00 +0000
As of June 2023, several prominent investors/economists (e.g., Druckenmiller, Sternlicht, Larry Summers) estimate roughly a 30% probability that the U.S. economy will experience a hard landing (recession) in either Q4 2023 or Q1 2024.
“they're all saying, well, we could 30% chance of a hard landing Q4 or Q1.” View on YouTube
As of roughly 2–3 weeks into Ukraine’s June 2023 counteroffensive, the operation will continue to make minimal territorial gains and will fail to achieve its stated objective of breaking through Russia’s prepared defensive lines and significantly reversing Russian territorial gains.
“so far, it seems like this counteroffensive is not going anywhere.” View on YouTube
Ukraine's 2023 summer counteroffensive ultimately made only marginal territorial gains and failed to break through Russia's heavily fortified defensive lines, widely regarded as a disappointment relative to expectations.
By the end of 2023, Russia’s military will have expanded to approximately 150,000 additional troops mobilized for the war in Ukraine (i.e., around 150,000 men under arms specifically added for this conflict).
“I think it's estimated that by the end of the year, they're going to have 150,000 men under arms.” View on YouTube
Russia did conduct significant mobilization waves in 2023, though precise figures on troops added specifically that year vary by source and the exact 150,000 figure is difficult to independently verify.
U.S. production of 155mm artillery shells will not reach a sustained rate of approximately 90,000 shells per month until around 2028.
“they're trying to hold on. They're trying to ramp it up to 90,000 a month, but that's going to take until 2028 because, you know, it takes time to build it.” View on YouTube
US 155mm shell production capacity expanded substantially faster than originally projected due to wartime investment, reaching roughly 40,000+ per month by 2024 with plans to exceed 100,000 by 2025-2026, materially faster than the pessimistic 2028 timeline predicted.
Following Antony Blinken’s June 2023 trip to China, there will be additional U.S.–China high-level diplomatic meetings in the subsequent months as a continuation of this engagement.
“I think where we sit at the moment is they're probably going to be some follow on meetings coming out of this.” View on YouTube
In Taiwan’s next national election in 2024, the China-friendlier ("pro‑China") party is currently favored and has a significant chance of winning power, replacing the more pro‑West party then in office.
“on Taiwan. There's an election next year, and it looks like right now that the pro-China party might actually take power.” View on YouTube
Taiwan's January 2024 election was won by the DPP's Lai Ching-te, the more pro-sovereignty, less China-friendly party, not the KMT.
By the time the fifth advanced semiconductor fabrication plant in Arizona is operational (projected around 2025–2026 under the CHIPS Act buildout), at least some wealthy Taiwanese families will relocate most of their family members out of Taiwan, anticipating reduced U.S. willingness to defend Taiwan militarily after that point.
“I was told by one very influential Taiwanese family that they believe when the fifth chip fab comes online in Arizona, which I think is scheduled for 25 or 26, they intended to have most of their family members out of Taiwan at that period in time.” View on YouTube
Investigative reporting that identifies a Wuhan Institute of Virology researcher performing gain‑of‑function research as Covid-19 patient zero (as reported by Michael Shellenberger and picked up by the Wall Street Journal in June 2023) will eventually receive a Pulitzer Prize for its coverage.
“Another conspiracy theory proven true. And will wind up being a Pulitzer.” View on YouTube
No Pulitzer Prize was awarded for reporting on a specific Wuhan Institute of Virology researcher as COVID-19 'patient zero'; the lab-leak theory remains unresolved and no such definitive claim has been vindicated with a Pulitzer.
Of the roughly 1,400 startup unicorns that existed at the end of 2022, essentially all of them (≈100%) will eventually raise a down round, with the average valuation decline being greater than 50% from their prior peak private valuations.
“There are 1400 unicorns at the end of 2022, and 100% of them will likely do a down round. And if you said what is the average that they're going to be down, it's over 50%.” View on YouTube
Approximately 30–40% of the ~1,400 unicorns valued over $1 billion as of end-2022 lack real product‑market fit and will ultimately fail and effectively disappear as independent companies (e.g., via shutdown or distressed acqui-hire) rather than grow into their valuations.
“I would say 30 to 40%. Are these companies that were valued over $1 billion that don't have product market fit. They'll disappear.” View on YouTube
Roughly another ~40% of the end-2022 unicorn cohort will prove to be real but overvalued businesses and will see their valuations marked down by about 50–80% from peak private valuations before they can access new capital or public markets.
“Then I think the lion's share of the companies that are left, let's call it, you know, another 40%. These are companies that should never have been marked at these prices. Right. But they do have a business and they're going to be marked down, you know, 50 to 80%.” View on YouTube
Less than 10% of unicorns as of end-2022 will grow their revenues and businesses sufficiently that their eventual fair valuations will be at or within roughly 10–15% of their prior peak private valuations, effectively growing into those prices rather than requiring major down rounds.
“Then there's less than 10% of the companies, right, whose growth has been so robust through this period that they've actually grown into or within ten, 15% of those prior prices.” View on YouTube
In the 18 months following June 2023 (i.e., by roughly end-2024), there will be a noticeable acceleration in market‑clearing events for late‑stage private tech companies (e.g., down rounds, recapitalizations, secondary sales, acquisitions, or IPOs) driven by capital needs and employee liquidity demands.
“But, you know, I think over the course of the next 18 months, we're going to see an acceleration of market clearing events as these companies need to raise capital as their employees want to get liquid on shares.” View on YouTube
Ford will be selling on the order of 2.5 million electric vehicles annually by around 2026–2027, and General Motors and other major automakers will follow a similar strategic path by ramping their own EV production and battery investments over that timeframe.
“Ford needs batteries there. Forecast is they'll be selling 2.5 million electric vehicles by 2026, 2027. So whatever Ford does, you can expect GM will also do. You can expect all of the other big companies to do so.” View on YouTube
Ford significantly scaled back its EV ambitions and sales targets after 2023 amid weaker-than-expected demand, and it did not come close to selling 2.5 million EVs annually by 2026-2027; actual EV sales for Ford remained in the tens of thousands per year.