E132: SEC goes after crypto giants, Sequoia splits, LIV/PGA, Messi's deal + LIVE Q&A!

Following the June 2023 enforcement actions against Binance and Coinbase, the SEC will continue a systematic crackdown on the U.S. crypto sector: first targeting exchanges, then custodial services, then staking services, and ultimately venture firms involved in token-staking schemes, and during this crackdown period the SEC will refuse to approve any crypto ETFs.

“And so they're coming down hard, and they're going to go and systematically dismantle the largest actors, and they're going to go through the value chain. So I think the obvious place that they're looking now are the exchanges. They'll look at the custodial services. They will not approve any ETFs. And then eventually I do think it trickles into all of the staking services. And eventually I think it'll touch the venture community and all of those firms and funds that had a huge, robust business in staking these crypto projects in order to get coins like founding coins and then being able to sell them.” View on YouTube

The bill that passed the U.S. House in early June 2023 allowing any American to take a test to qualify as an accredited investor will pass the Senate and be signed into law in the near term (within roughly the next legislative session).

“And the easiest solution for this just passed in Congress this week and will go to the Senate and be a law soon. I think allowing every American, the other 94% to take a test and become accredited.” View on YouTube

Due to U.S. regulatory pressure, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong will relocate Coinbase’s corporate base of operations outside the United States, likely to a jurisdiction in the Middle East or a Caribbean island, in order to preserve enterprise value.

“And that's really the easiest path to resolution here. So we don't have Brian Armstrong move his company to the Middle East or, you know, an island in the Caribbean, which is what he's going to do, I predict.” View on YouTube

In the then-current political environment (from mid‑2023 onward), no significant new federal legislation providing a clear regulatory framework for crypto (of the type Brian Armstrong is seeking) will be passed by the U.S. Congress in the near term.

“That said, I just don't think that there's a lot of political support to visit this issue right now. And so unfortunately, I'm pretty skeptical that you're going to see any form of legislation pass.” View on YouTube

From the mid‑2020s until roughly the 2050–2060 timeframe, China will be a poor destination for long‑term growth equity investment ("largely uninvestable"), producing materially worse risk‑adjusted returns than major alternative markets.

“And then when you put all these things together, now that China is contracting and we've said this before, I think China is largely uninvestable for the next 30 or 40 years.” View on YouTube

Within the months following June 2023, the U.S. government will implement restrictions that effectively stop U.S. venture capital firms from making new investments in Chinese companies, especially in sensitive sectors like chips and AI.

“So what really is happening is the government is going to stop all US venture investing in China. That's what's going to happen in the coming months.” View on YouTube

Over time, NBA fandom will shift such that younger generations predominantly follow individual star players rather than teams; in the future, viewership and subscription demand will be driven more by specific players than by franchises.

“It's probably a jump ball right now, but it will eventually be. They'll follow the players because this new generation follows players like our kids, like I follow LeBron from team to team.” View on YouTube

If separate direct-to-consumer subscriptions existed, a star like Steph Curry would be able to attract on the order of several million paying subscribers globally, whereas a team like the New York Knicks would attract only a few hundred thousand.

“I think. I think you could probably sell a few hundred thousand subscriptions to the Knicks, and I think you'd sell mid millions for Steph.” View on YouTube

In the future, the NBA will move toward an ad-based, direct-to-consumer subscription model in which fans can subscribe directly to the league (e.g., roughly $200/year for access to all games without ads), bypassing the traditional cable bundle.

“What's going to happen now is I think they're going to they just want this to be ad based and to directly subscribe. So I directly subscribe to the NBA. I get every game for $200 a year with no ads.” View on YouTube

Tucker Carlson’s new Twitter-based show will reach an audience on the order of 25 million people (per episode or per major release).

“Super distribution is the way to go. He's going to get 25 million people.” View on YouTube

Tucker Carlson’s show on Twitter will continue to accumulate views beyond the 17 million reported for the first day of his initial episode, achieving larger ongoing distribution on Twitter than he had on Fox News.

“So probably ten video yesterday was at 17 million views or something like that. So I'm sure it's more today. So no, he's getting huge distribution through Twitter.” View on YouTube

Over the next 30–40 years, a majority of the job functions that currently exist in the United States will migrate to lower-cost locations that can leverage AI and related tooling, forcing the U.S. to substantially reinvent its workforce and job mix in order to remain economically relevant.

“I think the reality is that most of the existing jobs that we have in the United States are going to go to lower cost locations that have that tool chain to accelerate their capability. So we're going to have to reinvent the workforce and the things that we do over the next 30 or 40 years to stay relevant.” View on YouTube

Corporate hiring freezes underway in many companies in 2023 will effectively continue indefinitely, because for many white-collar roles it will be easier and cheaper to automate the job function with AI than to create and fill new job requisitions.

“My base Bass thesis right now is that the job freezes, the hiring freezes, that all these companies is indefinite. I'm assuming it's indefinite, because the amount of work it takes to write a job requisition is more work in some cases than actually automating with AI already the job function.” View on YouTube

Over the subsequent 2–3 years (from mid-2023), many 20-person tech companies will be able to roughly double their business output or revenue while maintaining the same headcount of about 20 employees, due to productivity gains from AI.

“I think 20 person companies might, you know, double in size in the next 2 or 3 years, but still have 20 people.” View on YouTube

As AI adoption accelerates over the coming years, a large segment of workers will be unable to obtain interviews for knowledge-worker or white-collar roles and will instead only find opportunities in in-person service jobs (e.g., plumbers, electricians, waiters).

“there's just going to be large swaths of people who are not going to be able to get job interviews for anything other than service jobs.” View on YouTube

Catastrophic AI ‘doomer’ scenarios (e.g., mass displacement or existential-risk events) will not materialize suddenly in the very near term; instead, disruptive AI impacts will unfold more gradually over a longer period.

“So one is I think there's a lot of AI fear porn out there right now. And I just think that, like, all of these tumor scenarios are they're not going to play out overnight. I mean, this is going to take a while.” View on YouTube

Radiology as a medical specialty will be heavily disrupted or partially automated by AI, making it a poor career choice, but the broader medical profession (doctors in general) will remain viable and in demand.

“So for example, I wouldn't want to be a radiologist right now, but doctors will be fine.” View on YouTube

Long-haul truck driving jobs will be significantly reduced or threatened by self-driving technology, but transportation and logistics companies as a sector will continue to exist and operate.

“Like, I wouldn't want to be a truck driver either, you know, because of self-driving. But transportation companies are still going to exist.” View on YouTube

Legal and accounting professions are broad and general enough that AI will not eliminate these job categories; lawyers and accountants will continue to be needed.

“They're sufficiently general that I don't think they're going to be eliminated.” View on YouTube

As AI tools improve, lawyers and accountants will become more productive (able to complete more work), but this productivity gain will not necessarily translate into a reduced total number of lawyers or accountants employed; demand will expand with capacity.

“They may be able to get more done. Yeah. I would expect them to be able to get more done. Yeah. But I don't think necessarily think that means we'll need less of them.” View on YouTube

Changing the U.S. Constitution to allow non–U.S.-born citizens to become president will not happen within the next few years, but there is a small probability that such a change could occur within roughly 25–30 years from 2023.

“We have to wait. It can't happen in the next few years. I think I do think there's a small probability it could happen in 25 to 30 years” View on YouTube