E50: Crypto investing deep dive, Facebook's whistleblower fallout, Chappelle's new special & more

Solana, then the #8 cryptocurrency by market cap, will rise to approximately the #3 position in overall cryptocurrency market capitalization at some future point, even if it does not overtake Ethereum.

“there's a lot of people, I'd say smart money in Silicon Valley who are betting on a flippening where Solana could ultimately overtake Ethereum as the preferred platform. But even if it doesn't overtake Ethereum, you know it's the number eight cryptocurrency right now. You know, it could go. There's a lot of people betting it'll go to number three or you know, what have you.” View on YouTube

Following public comments by Jerome Powell and Gary Gensler in early October 2021 that crypto would not be banned, the U.S. SEC will approve one or more crypto-based ETFs (such as Grayscale’s conversion and others) as simpler on-ramps for U.S. investors in the ensuing years.

“Look, we have two, almost $3 trillion of market cap in crypto. It's unrealistic for folks to expect people to be able to be living in discord channels and doing all of this work. I think what that means is that the SEC is going to be asked increasingly more often to approve simpler on ramps for this stuff. And now, in the last week, by the way, we had a pretty important two things happen. Both Jerome Powell and Gary Gensler basically said, crypto is here to stay and we're not going to ban this stuff. And so hopefully what it means is that you get some ETFs passed in the United States. You know, grayscale is one. There could be more. And I think that stuff makes it much easier for folks to own this stuff.” View on YouTube

The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, which was around $2–3 trillion in October 2021, will grow over time to roughly $6 trillion and then to roughly $10 trillion.

“Look, we have two, almost $3 trillion of market cap in crypto... And so hopefully what it means is that you get some ETFs passed in the United States...” View on YouTube

Cryptocurrencies, having reached roughly $3 trillion in aggregate market value and significant institutional adoption by October 2021, will not be banned out of existence or disappear; the crypto asset class will persist as a lasting part of the global financial system.

“I think that, um, you can't wipe $3 trillion of value out of the world. And so... So it's here to stay. And it's too institutionalized now.” View on YouTube

Over the roughly 20–30 years following 2021, approximately one full year’s worth of current world GDP (on the order of tens of trillions of dollars, referenced as about $70 trillion held by U.S. boomers) will be transferred via inheritance and similar mechanisms to roughly 100 million people in the United States.

“You're going to take one entire turn of the world's GDP and give it to 100 million people in America over the next 20 to 30 years. That is what is actually going to happen.” View on YouTube

As of October 2021, Facebook (now Meta) has a 0% chance of successfully launching a really compelling crypto project in the future, i.e., it will not land a major, successful crypto initiative going forward.

“What do you think the chances are that Facebook now can land a really compelling crypto project? Right. In my opinion... It's zero.” View on YouTube

Following the Haugen whistleblower episode (as of October 2021), U.S. and/or other government agencies will initiate formal actions against Facebook that will result in financial settlements, with Facebook paying fines in order to resolve these actions.

“This whole thing is just getting started. There are going to be they're going to be government actions, and there will be settlements from those government actions. And the and Facebook, as you well know, will pay any kind of fine to put this behind them.” View on YouTube

If strong speech/content regulations are imposed on major centralized social platforms like Facebook and Twitter, a new alternative platform will emerge that operates in a more decentralized model and serves similar discovery/access use cases.

“If they start putting the regulatory hammer down on these quote unquote platforms, telling them what they can and cannot make available to their users. There will be another platform that will emerge, and that platform may end up being in this kind of decentralized model.” View on YouTube

Over the coming years and potentially decades, attempts by regulators to restrict emotionally stimulating online content will function as a whack‑a‑mole: consumers will repeatedly migrate to new services, and overall consumption of emotionally arousing digital media will continue to increase despite regulation.

“So, you know, go ahead and play whack a mole. You'll play whack a mole for a few years, maybe a few decades. But at the end of the day, digital technology and a connected world will drive consumers to exactly where they will naturally find themselves, which is consuming ever more of the things that create this emotional response in them.” View on YouTube

Following the October 2021 release of Dave Chappelle's Netflix special "The Closer," there is a 50% probability that Netflix will remove (take down) that special from its service at some point in the future.

“I give it a 50% chance that Netflix takes it down.” View on YouTube

If Dave Chappelle were to launch his own subscription streaming service for comedy, that service would attract roughly 10 million paying subscribers within its first two years of operation.

“If Dave Chappelle were to create his own Netflix, I think it gets 10 million paid subscribers over the first two years overnight.” View on YouTube