The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private

Adoption of stablecoins for domestic B2B payments in countries like the United States will lag international and cross-border use cases but will eventually arrive after those international use cases are established.

“Where is the people who are using bridge. It's like scale. I is you know, they have to pay the contractors all around the world. And when you want to get money to people in the Philippines, that starts to get really annoying and expensive. And so just from our point of view, the like real hair on fire problem is the international stuff and domestic. I assume you're paying domestic suppliers. It'll come later.” View on YouTube

Over the medium to long term, stablecoins will become the common transaction rail in payments infrastructure, with most consumer-facing payment networks built on top of and leveraging stablecoins rather than replacing those networks entirely.

“I think stablecoins are going to be a big part of a big part of the solution. I actually don't think that's going to supplant all the consumer facing networks. I think we're going to see consumer facing networks built upon and substantially leverage these things. But I think stablecoins will probably be the common rail.” View on YouTube

U.S. labor productivity, which has risen roughly 20% over the past decade, will continue to increase in the coming years, with the rate of productivity growth further boosted by the adoption of AI and related software tools.

“And that's going to keep ramping up with AI and all these amazing tools that are coming out.” View on YouTube

Over the next couple of years following the release of the Evo2 biology foundation model, there will be a rapid "Cambrian explosion" of practical applications built on top of such DNA-based foundation models, analogous to the explosion of applications that followed GPT‑2/3 in language models.

“I don't know if you analogize Evo to to, I don't know whether it's GPT 2 or 3 or something, but, you know, I think we're going to see a similar Cambrian explosion of, of applications over the next couple of years.” View on YouTube

If one of Arc Institute's spinout companies achieves success on the order of Moderna or Ozempic (i.e., a blockbuster biotech outcome) in the future, the resulting financial returns will be sufficient for Arc Institute to establish an endowment and become financially self-sustaining as a research nonprofit.

“if one of those becomes Moderna or, you know, the next Ozempic or something, then that could be really good for Arc, and Arc might have an endowment and be able to kind of self-sustain and so forth.” View on YouTube

In the "post‑AI era" (implicitly within the coming decades), advances in AI will make currently infeasible, extremely large-scale engineering projects routine, such as deep mining toward the Earth’s interior for rare earth minerals and large-scale space projects like colonizing the Moon, by enabling coordination and design that would otherwise require millions of people.

“I have a thesis that, like AI more than anything, unlocks deeply complicated projects for humans that would otherwise be infeasible in the AI era. I think in the post AI era, we're going to be like, oh, here's all these projects that we do that are like, oh, you know, we on a daily basis, we mine to the center of the earth and we get cool like rare earth minerals from like 500 miles down and we go to space and colonize the moon and all these crazy things, because AI unlocks these large scale projects that would require millions of people to do things in a coordinated way.” View on YouTube

Given current (February 2025) trajectory estimates, the asteroid discussed, which will cross Earth’s orbit in 2032, has approximately a 1.5% probability of impacting Earth in 2032, and conditional on impact, roughly a 15% probability of causing human loss of life (with an energy release up to ~20 megatons if its diameter is near 300 feet).

“And so right now, the probability is estimated at 1.5% that it will hit the Earth. And based on the size of this asteroid, there's this range. It goes up to 320ft in diameter, as small as 80ft in diameter, which actually can have a pretty big effect on how big of an energy release there would be if it actually, you know, hit the Earth. So even on the high end, if it was call it 300ft, it would be the equivalent of call it a 20 megaton bomb… So it's 1.5% chance of hitting the Earth and then call it a 15% chance if it hits the Earth, causing loss of life.” View on YouTube

As of this updated NASA assessment (February 2025), the probability that the referenced asteroid will impact Earth during its 2032 close approach is approximately 0.33% (one third of one percent).

“And guys, it just came through that NASA just dropped the probability of an impact event to about a one third of 1%. So it's gotten even smaller, which is we can all go to sleep comfortably.” View on YouTube

The current leaders speaking as "we" (the Stripe founders/executives on the show) will still be running Stripe 10 years and even 20 years from the time of this recording (Feb 2025).

“We'll be very happily running stripe in ten years time. In 20 years time.” View on YouTube

Stripe will go public (IPO) in the year 2050. (Stated humorously but as a concrete future date.)

“Stripes going public in 2050” View on YouTube

On March 13 (2025, in context), the All-In hosts Jason (A) and Freiberg will appear at South by Southwest, conduct interviews about the future of media and business, and host an intimate event with food and drinks for a few hundred attendees.

“All in is headed to South by Southwest on March 13th. Me and Freiberg are going to sit down and do our interviews. Two besties on the future of media and building businesses in this new media ecosystem. We're going to have a casual party. Food, drinks, the whole thing event is going to be pretty intimate. Couple hundred seats.” View on YouTube

After Freiberg’s Celebrity Jeopardy! episode airs, the All-In hosts will produce a recap segment covering every question from the episode.

“We are going to do a recap of every single question.” View on YouTube