E38: Bestie brawl, Robinhood's $70M fine & S-1, Delta variant, future of the political parties, FTC takes losses against big tech & more

The All-In podcast audience will grow from about 1 million weekly listeners to roughly 10 million weekly listeners in the future, allowing the hosts to effectively control direct distribution of their ideas to a very large audience.

“We're at a million fucking people a week. We could be at 10 million people a fucking week, and we could fucking own the distribution of our ideas to millions and millions of people.” View on YouTube

Robinhood will successfully complete an IPO with a valuation in the roughly $50–70 billion range.

“And now they're going to be able to IPO at like a 50, 60, $70 billion valuation.” View on YouTube

Up to approximately 10% of the U.S. population will become infected with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant over the coming Delta wave (starting from mid-2021).

“a lot of epidemiologists are saying that the models indicate that we could see up to 10% of the US population now get hit with this variant.” View on YouTube

In the upcoming 2021–2022 school year, many U.S. public schools (especially in places like California) will not offer full five-day-a-week in-person instruction under normal conditions. Instead, they will either fall short of full-time in-person learning or will impose stringent measures such as mandatory masking for children, strict social distancing, and segregating unvaccinated children (e.g., making them sit at separate tables).

“So I think you could be in a situation where we do not have they will call it school reopening, but we will not have five day a week in-person learning. And the schools, the public schools that have it are going to have all sorts of insane restrictions and conditions, like making kids who really aren't at risk for Covid, even even the Delta variant. They're going to force them to wear masks. They're going to enforce this ridiculous social distancing. They're talking about making the kids who aren't vaccinated sit at a separate table like the outcasts.” View on YouTube

Societal and policy responses to COVID-19 in the near future will evolve into a de facto two-class system in which vaccinated people operate under one set of rules and restrictions, and unvaccinated people are subject to a different, more restrictive set of rules.

“We're going to move to a two class system here. If you're vaccinated, you get one set of rules, and if you're not vaccinated, you get another.” View on YouTube

In the United States, the Delta variant of SARS‑CoV‑2 will not overwhelm or "crush" the hospital system, and will not cause a massive number of fatalities, during its subsequent waves (e.g., through the main Delta wave in late 2021).

“even if this delta variant is highly infectious, there are enough people and people vaccinated in the United States at this point that this Delta variant is not going to crush our hospital system. It's not going to cause massive amount of fatalities” View on YouTube

In fall 2021, the Delta variant of SARS‑CoV‑2 will widely spread ("sweep through") in U.S. regions with low COVID‑19 vaccination rates, causing a substantial wave of cases there.

“It is going to, I think, sweep through areas of the country in the fall that aren't vaccinated.” View on YouTube

During the fall of 2021, the SARS‑CoV‑2 Delta variant will spread widely through parts of the United States with low vaccination rates, becoming prevalent in those under‑vaccinated regions.

“It is going to, I think, sweep through areas of the country in the fall that aren't vaccinated.” View on YouTube

Prosecutors will fail to flip Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg into providing incriminating testimony that leads to criminal charges against Donald Trump personally; Trump will avoid criminal liability arising from this particular New York tax‑perk case.

“they're trying to charge Westheimer, who's who's CFO, with basically receiving certain perks as compensation.” View on YouTube

Joe Biden will serve only one term as U.S. president and will not run for re‑election in 2024.

“Both of these two guys are one term presidents. I think that is abundantly clear. I think the question is, what is Biden's transition plan? you know, does he actually only stay two years and transitions it to Kamala? I don't know, but there's no way that he's running for a second term either.” View on YouTube

Donald Trump will remain a one‑term U.S. president and will never again serve a subsequent term in the White House.

“Both of these two guys are one term presidents. I think that is abundantly clear.” View on YouTube

If Nikki Haley chooses to run for U.S. president as a Republican in 2024, she will be a serious contender with substantial credibility in the race.

“I think the person who has enough credibility to take a shot. It's not clear that she will, but if she did, she would be really serious and she could actually get people to be relatively normal as Nikki Haley on the right.” View on YouTube

As of the 2024 U.S. presidential cycle, Ron DeSantis will be the early frontrunner for the Republican nomination.

“DeSantis is definitely the early frontrunner.” View on YouTube

Ron DeSantis will win re‑election as governor of Florida in 2022 by a large margin (a "sweep to victory").

“now he's running for reelection in Florida in 2022. So that's on his plate. And but I think it looks like he's going to sweep to victory.” View on YouTube

Conditional on Ron DeSantis winning Florida’s 2022 gubernatorial election by a strong margin, he will become the de facto frontrunner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.

“If he wins re-election in 2022 by a by a strong margin, I think he does become the putative frontrunner for 2024.” View on YouTube

Amazon’s petition to have FTC chair Lina Khan recused from antitrust matters involving Amazon will be denied; she will not be recused and will continue to oversee Amazon‑related cases.

“There's no way this is going to fly. There's no way she's going to get recused.” View on YouTube

During the current Congress (2021–2023), at least some of the six House‑passed bipartisan antitrust bills targeting large technology platforms will pass the U.S. Senate and be enacted into law, resulting in significant regulatory changes for big tech companies.

“It's a huge priority. There's six bills that just got passed in the House and it's going to the Senate. And I do think this is one of the areas where you could actually get some bipartisan agreement in the Senate… that says to me that legislation is likely I think it's going to go through. I think we are going to see some some big changes.” View on YouTube