Around 24 months after this September 6, 2024 episode (i.e., roughly by September 2026), Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya will get arrested in connection with celebrating Chamath’s 50th birthday.
“I've already called dibs on chairing your 50th, so we will, uh, be certainly getting arrested in 24 months.”
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Explanation
The predicted 24-month window closes September 6, 2026, which hasn't arrived yet as of this check; there is no indication either host has been arrested.
Following the 2024 All-In Summit (held shortly after this September 6, 2024 episode), recorded summit content will be published to YouTube over the subsequent days and weeks rather than all at once during the event.
“And then, as we did in the last two years, material will roll out in the days and weeks that follow.”
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Explanation
The All-In Summit's established pattern of staggering session recordings on YouTube over the days and weeks following the live event continued after the 2024 Summit, matching the prediction.
If Kamala Harris wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election, her administration’s economic policies during her term will substantially continue the same policy direction as the Biden–Harris/Elizabeth Warren-style economic program of 2021–2024, rather than representing a significant ideological shift toward the center or toward more pro-business, lower-tax policies.
“But you're a fool and kidding yourself if you think you're going to get something really different after the election, you're going to get a continuation of the Biden, Harris, Elizabeth Warren economic program that we've had for the last four years.”
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Explanation
Kamala Harris lost the 2024 election, so the conditional premise ('if Kamala Harris wins') was never triggered and the prediction can't be evaluated.