Inflated GDP?, Google earnings, How the media lost trust, Rogan/Trump search controversy, Election!

Within the next few years (by the end of 2027), a credible alternative to the US dollar as the primary global reserve/settlement asset will emerge, likely associated with the BRICS bloc or similar, leading to a noticeable shift of assets away from USD into that alternative (and into hedges like gold and Bitcoin during the transition).

“there may be an alternative that emerges in the next couple of years, and maybe everyone's kind of putting their assets away in gold and, and others and Bitcoin and other stuff while they're waiting for the transition to find another place to buy. We'll see.” View on YouTube

US long-term interest rates (e.g., the 10‑year Treasury yield), having roughly doubled from their prior lows, will remain at approximately their current elevated level (around 4%+) for the foreseeable medium term and will not revert back to the ~2% range they were in during the 2010s within the next several years (through at least 2027).

“if if rates have roughly doubled, let's say, in the last few years, and they're going to stay at that level, they're not going back down.” View on YouTube

In the near future (roughly over the next 5–10 years), the US federal budget will become so constrained by debt and interest costs that spending will be increasingly concentrated on entitlements and defense, with a large share of other discretionary federal programs being cut or significantly reduced.

“I think that whole shell game might just be over now because there's no more money left. I mean, it's all been spent. In fact, you know what I mean? So, like all the federal government probably will end up doing in the near future is entitlements and defense. That's it. Because those are the core core functions of the federal government. I think everything else that's that sort of quote unquote discretionary is probably going to get cut because there's no more money left.” View on YouTube

At some point in the future (no specific date given), large US tech conglomerates such as Google will be broken up into multiple logically distinct business units through regulatory or market-driven actions.

“Again, I'm not saying that it should. B [00:32:56.160]: For sure. C [00:32:56.600]: But it will happen.” View on YouTube

In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Donald Trump will win the state of Pennsylvania, based on current early-vote and likely-Election-Day-voter data discussed shortly before Election Day 2024.

“So then you got to look at polling of people who say they're going to vote but haven't voted yet in Pennsylvania, who say they're going to vote on Election Day. And I think those numbers are running about 18 points ahead for Trump, which is about double what he needs to win. So he just to be clear, the early voting favors Harris, but not by the same percentages that it did four years ago. So right now it looks like Trump is tracking to win that state.” View on YouTube

In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the state of Nevada will be won by the Republican presidential candidate (i.e., will vote Republican in the Electoral College).

“I saw an article today that just said that they basically considered Nevada now in the Republican camp because, like, there's been so much early voting that it's about 60% of the total votes they think have already been cast. Since they have a very clear Republican lead going into Election Day.” View on YouTube

In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the outcome of the national presidential result will not be altered or determined by voter or election fraud; any detected fraud will be too small in scale to change the Electoral College winner.

“And what's really important for Americans to understand is it is impossible right now, absolutely statistically impossible to swing the presidential election with fraud.” View on YouTube

Total turnout in the 2024 U.S. presidential election will be approximately 160 million votes cast nationwide (on the order of 160M, i.e., very close to that figure).

“158 million people voted in 2020. We'll have about 160 million this year if the estimates are correct.” View on YouTube

For the 2024 U.S. presidential election specifically, while some instances of cheating or voter fraud may occur, they will not be large enough in magnitude to change who wins the presidency in the Electoral College.

“But no, now they are giving receipts to people. So the gold standard is giving a receipt showing ID and having multiple weeks to do it. And so if anybody's taking anything away from this, there can be cheating, but it cannot swing the presidential election.” View on YouTube