Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, the "vibecession," plastic in our balls

As a result of the Scarlett Johansson vs. OpenAI dispute (including any lawsuit or settlement), Scarlett Johansson will end up with an equity or economic ownership stake in OpenAI that is larger than Sam Altman’s personal ownership stake in the company, determined by the final structure of ownership after the dispute is resolved.

“The sentence is as Scarlett Johansson's going to end up owning more of this company than Sam Altman. That's what's going to happen.”

Within 5–10 years from May 2024, OpenAI’s internal security and operational protocols will resemble those of a highly classified U.S. "three-letter" agency (e.g., strict access controls, compartmentalization, heavy security procedures) more than the open, campus-like culture historically associated with Google’s Googleplex.

“in order to be this incredible bastion of like AGI and innovation, I suspect that it's going to look more like a three letter agency in terms of security and protocols in the next 5 or 10 years, than it is going to look like the Googleplex.”

If the Scarlett Johansson vs. OpenAI dispute over the "Sky" voice is litigated to a substantive legal outcome instead of being quietly settled, the resulting court decisions or legislation will create more restrictive and unfavorable fair-use standards for AI and content companies than those that existed prior to this case.

“because it is such an industry leading company, I think we could end up with some very bad, fair use precedents or laws because Scarlett Johansson is so sympathetic as a plaintiff compared to open AI. And it's, you know, unless they show us some discovery that proves that they really did hire the voice actor and all the rest of it. I mean, this could lead to some very bad precedents for the industry around fair use.”

The Scarlett Johansson vs. OpenAI dispute over the ChatGPT "Sky" voice will be resolved via an out-of-court settlement, without a final court judgment that materially clarifies or changes U.S. fair-use case law.

“What happens in these content cases is they get settled almost every single time. So the case law doesn't get codified, they just get settled out of court. If you go look at all the fair use cases, they almost never go to the mat. And so this one will just be settled.”

Following the May 2024 resignation of OpenAI’s superalignment team leaders (including Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike), one or more government regulators or oversight bodies will formally contact and interview these former employees about OpenAI’s technology and safety practices, leading to new, previously non-public information about OpenAI’s internal state-of-the-art models or safety processes becoming public (e.g., via hearings, reports, or leaks) within the next 1–2 years.

“my guess is there are certain regulatory people who are going to have interest in the fact that this team just left. They're going to make a phone call, they're going to ask this team to come in and have a conversation, and they're going to start to ask a lot of questions about what the state of technology is over there. And I suspect that some things are going to start to come out.”

Over the next several years (through roughly 2027), venture and growth investors in Silicon Valley will significantly increase capital allocation into semiconductor and hardware startups (especially AI chips and related infrastructure), compared with the pre-2023 period when such investments were relatively rare.

“what you're seeing and what you'll see even more now is this incentive for Silicon Valley, who has been really reticent to put money into chips, really reticent to put money into hardware. They're going to get pulled into investing in this space because there's no choice.”

Within the next several years, Nvidia’s market share in AI compute (GPUs/AI accelerators used for training and inference) will decline due to competition from new entrants, even as Nvidia’s total revenue from AI-related products continues to grow year over year.

“At some point the spread trade will be that Nvidia loses share even though revenues keep compounding to these upstarts.”

Within the next several years (by around 2030), Nvidia will expand beyond selling GPUs/servers into offering its own large-scale cloud or data-center compute service that competes directly with major hyperscalers such as AWS, Google Cloud Platform, and Microsoft Azure (i.e., customers will be able to rent Nvidia-operated GPU compute capacity as an alternative to those hyperscalers).

“I think Nvidia this is to build on Sachs's point is going to get pulled into competing directly with the hyperscalers. So if you were just selling chips, you probably wouldn't. But Sachs is right. Like these are these big, bulky actual machines. Then all of a sudden you're like, well, why don't I just create my own physical plant and just stack these things and create racks and racks of these machines and go head to head with AWS instead of selling to them?... I think it's it's likely that Nvidia goes on a full frontal assault against GCP and Amazon and Microsoft.”

Starting in the mid‑2020s, the food industry will increasingly introduce and market premium "low plastic" or "low phthalate" food products, and there will be a broader commercial wave of bioplastic alternatives used in food-related applications, positioned as healthier replacements for conventional fossil-fuel-based plastics.

“I think that this is going to trigger and is the beginning of a wave. I'm noticing that a lot of folks are going to start to pay attention in the food industry, and start to figure out ways to represent low plastic, low phthalate food products as a way to kind of sell a more premium solution. I think that's been the trend historically with the food industry is to respond to your ask right now and to then show up with with solutions. So I do think that that's ... a really big opportunity for for a wave of bioplastic alternatives.”

The All In Summit event will take place in Los Angeles on September 8–10, 2024, with attendees present (i.e., it will not be canceled or fully virtual-only).

“And we'll see you all at the All In Summit in September.”

Before the All In Summit scheduled for September 8–10, 2024 in Los Angeles, the organizers will announce and offer some number of scholarship tickets for attendees.

“The All In Summit is taking place in Los Angeles on September 8th through the 10th. You can apply for a ticket at summit Dot podcast. Scholarships will be coming soon.”

If and when the All In Podcast YouTube channel reaches 1,000,000 subscribers, the hosts will hold a celebratory in-person party in Las Vegas within a reasonable period (e.g., within about a year of crossing that threshold).

“we're going to do a party in Vegas. My understanding when we hit a million subscribers.”