If OpenAI becomes a multi-hundred-billion-dollar company, the tax and structural issues around its nonprofit/for-profit setup will be resolved through court proceedings or government legal action, rather than remaining unaddressed.
“And other companies had copied this. Long story short, the IRS sued, you know, similar to you, David, I was in years of depositions and interviews and all of this stuff. So the point is that the government really cares about these kinds of things because so much money is on the line. And if OpenAI turns out to be this Multi-hundred billion dollar behemoth, this will get figured out in court, Import because there's just too much money at stake.”
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Explanation
OpenAI's nonprofit-to-for-profit restructuring did face substantial scrutiny and negotiation with California and Delaware attorneys general, resulting in the nonprofit retaining an oversight/control role, but this was resolved through negotiated settlement rather than a full court ruling.
The IRS will aggressively investigate OpenAI’s nonprofit/for-profit structure (similar to its prior investigation of Mozilla), including potential tax issues arising from the IP transfer and employee equity/secondary sales.
“So I think the IRS is going to be on this like crazy based upon what happened to Mozilla, which was.”
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Explanation
No public confirmation of a major, Mozilla-style IRS investigation into OpenAI's nonprofit/for-profit structure could be found.
Apple Inc. will experience poor business/stock performance over approximately the next 5–10 years (2024–2029/2034) relative to prior history and to GDP-plus growth expectations, unless it successfully develops or acquires major new growth drivers.
“Unfortunately, it speaks for a very bad next 5 to 10 years for this company unless they figure something out.”
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Explanation
The predicted 5-10 year window (through 2029-2034) hasn't elapsed; Apple's performance since has been mixed, with strong services growth but perceived to be lagging in AI relative to peers.
If GDP per capita in emerging markets (e.g., BRICS countries) continues to rise and iOS remains the superior product experience, Apple’s iOS share of global mobile OS usage will increase from its then-current ~27% level over the coming years, taking share from Android.
“So while today Android is 72% of the market, if the emerging markets continue to grow, GDP per capita and iOS continues to be the superior product, you'll see Apple able to to steal into more share over time.”
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Explanation
Global iOS market share has remained roughly stable in the high-20s to low-30s percent range since 2024 rather than showing a clear dramatic increase.
Bitcoin will eventually reach a price level of $100,000 per BTC, with the current 2024 bull phase representing the early stage of a broader move toward that level, accompanied by a social "tipping point" where Bitcoin becomes a widespread topic of mainstream discussion.
“they seem to think that this thing is on a death march to 100 K. I'm not sure whether that price is realistic or not in the year, but I will say that we're going to get to a tipping point where everybody really talks about this. I still don't think we're there yet. I think we're just at the beginning.”
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Explanation
Confirmed: Bitcoin surpassed $100,000 for the first time in December 2024, becoming a major mainstream topic of discussion.
Following the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, at least one U.S. spot Ethereum ETF will also be approved by regulators (the SEC) in the subsequent period, allowing Ethereum to trade in ETF form on major U.S. exchanges.
“People are now speculating that there's going to be an Ethereum ETF that gets approved as well. Because if you approve one, there's probably legitimate cause to approve a few others.”
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Explanation
Confirmed: the SEC approved spot Ethereum ETFs in May 2024, following the earlier approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024.