Anthropic's $30B Ramp, Mythos Doomsday, OpenClaw Ankled, Iran War Ceasefire, Israel's Influence

Over the next 6 months, AI-driven cyber tools will detect a wide range of previously dormant security bugs across many systems, marking a temporary catch-up period as AI capability outpaces existing patches.

“I do think that over say the next 6 months we're going to have this call it one-time period of catching up where AI-driven cyber is going to be able to detect a whole range of of bugs that maybe have been dormant over the past 20 years across a wide range of systems.” View on YouTube

OpenAI will release a similar cyber-vulnerability-detection capability within the next few weeks, following Anthropic's Mythos playbook.

“We know that like let's say the Chinese open source models like Kimmy K2, it's about 6 months behind. So we have a window here of maybe 6 months where we're still in this pre-release period... and uh I guess open AI is going to release a similar thing in the next few weeks.” View on YouTube

OpenAI's Spud model, its first Blackwell-trained model, will be released very soon ("any day now").

“Mythos and Spud, which is going to be out from OpenAI any day now, which is the first Blackwell trained model at OpenAI.” View on YouTube

OpenAI and Google will both adopt the same pre-release sandboxing/hardening approach that Anthropic used for Mythos before releasing their own frontier models.

“I think open AAI will end up doing the same thing. I think Google will end up doing the same thing.” View on YouTube

Open-source language models will eventually win out, capturing roughly 90% of token usage and undercutting the entire frontier/closed-model space.

“these I believe open source is going to win the day on the large language models and take 90% of the token usage and I think the entire frontier model space could be undercut by open source” View on YouTube

At some point, a genuinely successful open-source pre-training project (for training frontier-scale models) will emerge.

“I tend to agree with you Jason that there is going to be at some point a very successful open source project for pre-training. Absolutely.” View on YouTube

The share of code that is AI-generated (versus human-written) will rise from roughly 5% today to about 95%, likely within the next few years.

“it might be 5% today meaning 5% of the codes AI generated versus human generated I think it's going to 95% I mean I bet any amount of money on that the only question is when probably over the next few years” View on YouTube

The market for AI coding tokens could become monopolized by the current early leader, driven by data and training-token flywheel effects.

“So, I do believe that the market for coding tokens could be monopolized.” View on YouTube

Anthropic will exit the year at an $80-100 billion revenue run rate, while OpenAI also sees a revenue inflection driven by an imminent new model release.

“So I think when you look out toward the end of the year, I would not be shocked if you see Anthropic exiting this year at 80 to 100 billion in revenue. And by the way, doing it at the same time that OpenAI, who is also on the wave, they'll be releasing an incredible model in the next imminently. They're going to be on that wave and you're going to see an inflection in their revenues as well.” View on YouTube

By the end of June, SpaceX will join Meta and Google in having a 'fortress balance sheet,' giving well-capitalized incumbents leverage over compute-constrained AI labs.

“I think by the end of June, SpaceX will also have a fortress balance sheet.” View on YouTube

A Ukraine-Russia peace deal is close, Venezuela negotiations are progressing well, and there will be significant news on Cuba.

“By the way, while everybody's focused on Iran, stay tuned. I think we're getting close to a deal on Ukraine, Russia, right? Venezuela is, you know, kind of going seemingly very well. I think there's also going to be news on Cuba.” View on YouTube

If the Iran ceasefire, Lebanon talks, Ukraine-Russia, and Venezuela situations are resolved by July 4th (America's 250th anniversary), the stock market could rally sharply.

“If you land the plane on those things heading into America 250 July 4th, the market could really take off.” View on YouTube

The US and Israel will find an offramp from the current Iran conflict/tension, given the economic and geopolitical incentives on both sides.

“So all of that kind of tells me that we will find an offramp.” View on YouTube

Many tech companies have hit peak employment for their current business lines; while new jobs will be created elsewhere, existing roles will continue to shrink as companies do more with less headcount.

“I think for a lot of these tech companies, we've hit peak employment. We're going to create a tremendous number of new jobs, but for the existing jobs, these companies are all realizing they can do more with less.” View on YouTube