Sat, 29 Mar 2025 01:40:00 +0000
Nvidia’s Blackwell GPU generation will experience a very successful commercial product cycle relative to prior GPU generations (e.g., strong demand and adoption across major AI customers) over the upcoming cycle following its launch.
“So we're definitely not overbuilt yet... Blackwell is going to be a very successful product cycle.” View on YouTube
Over the next 5 years from the time of this recording (through approximately March 2030), China will not succeed in creating a GPU or accelerator platform that is competitive with Nvidia’s leading-edge offerings.
“In the next five years? I think zero I think it's really, really hard. But over the ten years, who knows.” View on YouTube
The Model Context Protocol (MCP), developed by Anthropic and adopted by OpenAI, will become a widely adopted standard interface for LLMs to integrate with external tools and services.
“anthropic developed something called the Model Context protocol that OpenAI just adopted. I think it will become a standard, and it makes it really easy for an LLM like stripe can just integrate with MCP. And then any LLM that uses MCP can, you know, interact with stripe.” View on YouTube
Public and media attention to the Signal war-planning leak ("signalgate") will substantially die down and largely be forgotten within roughly two Scaramuccis (about 2–3 weeks) from the time of the incident.
“And so I think like, you know, let's give it two scaramucci's. I think we'll forget about it.” View on YouTube
Media attention to the Signal group-chat leak controversy ('Signalgate') did fade from the news cycle within a few weeks, consistent with the prediction.
As the currently pending court cases over officials' use of private/ephermal communications (email, Signal, etc.) progress, and in light of this Signal incident, U.S. law and policy will develop significantly clearer rules and consequences over the next few years about which categories of government communications must be preserved as records and which can remain off the record.
“And I think from these cases and this particular incident, there's going to become much greater kind of call it clarity and also a better understanding of the consequences of what communication do you need to preserve records of, and what communication are you allowed to have off the record that you can?” View on YouTube
This is a broad, gradually-developing legal/policy claim over 'the next few years' that hasn't fully resolved yet.
If the Trump administration continues policies such as deporting alleged gang members to El Salvador’s harsh prison without sufficient due process and promoting it in punitive videos, Republicans will lose the next U.S. midterm elections in 2026.
“And this is why I predict this is why they will lose the midterms if they continue to do this type of stuff.” View on YouTube
The 2026 US midterm elections (November 2026) hadn't occurred as of this check.