Fri, 17 Apr 2026 20:35:00 +0000
New York City's new pied-à-terre tax on second homes over $5 million will sharply reduce demand for second homes in Manhattan, crashing that segment of the real estate market.
“So what do you think that's going to do? It's going to have a massive impact on demand for second homes in New York, which will crash the whole market.” View on YouTube
No dedicated data on Manhattan second-home market impact from the pied-à-terre tax was found.
OpenAI's new model, codenamed "Spud," will be released within the week following this episode, per a Polymarket estimate of 75% odds cited by Jason.
“And this new model, Spud, is coming uh from Open AI. Here's your poly market. 75% chance Spud is released next week.” View on YouTube
OpenAI's "Spud" model (which became GPT-5.5) was released, confirming the core prediction.
If OpenAI executes well on both its consumer business (worth an estimated $3-4 trillion in enterprise value) and a refocused enterprise/Codex push (worth an estimated $2-3 trillion), the company could eventually reach a $7-8 trillion market cap over the long term (not near-term).
“if we allocate more resources and just double down and crush consumer, that's probably three or four trillion of enterprise value. And then if we slowly refocus the company... we can probably capture two or three trillion there. And now all of a sudden you can paint a picture for a seven eight n trillion dollar market cap in the fullness of time.” View on YouTube
The predicted long-term ("fullness of time") valuation has not yet been reached or resolved.
Anthropic will end the current year with annualized revenue of roughly $80-100 billion, continuing its trajectory from about $10 billion last year to $30 billion by the end of Q1 this year.
“they went from let's call it 1 to 10 billion of ARR last year and by the end of Q1 this year they were already at 30 billion of again let's call it their revenue and they're on their way... they're going to end this year at 80 to 100 billion at least on the current trajectory” View on YouTube
Anthropic's annualized revenue was on a trajectory from about $47 billion (May 2026) to $65 billion (July 2026), on track toward but not yet confirmed at the predicted $80-100 billion year-end target.
Data centers will become politically unpopular enough that roughly 30 U.S. states will move to ban new data center construction outright, making project approvals very difficult.
“Well, I think I think Jimoth is right that the the data centers become very unpopular. probably in 30 states they're just going to ban them outright and then it's very hard to get projects approved.” View on YouTube
Only New York enacted a full statewide data center ban; roughly ten states introduced moratorium bills or siting restrictions, far short of the predicted roughly 30 states banning them outright.
Over the next year, Anthropic will be forced to build its own data centers (having exhausted third-party compute capacity), and its public messaging around data centers -- shaped by its effective-altruist-aligned stance -- will shift to favor them.
“they apparently have reached the limits of the compute that's available to them by buying it from a third party and they need to build their own data centers. It's going to be very interesting to see how they adapt to that and how the message around data centers changes over the next year as let's call it the effective altruists decide that all of a sudden data centers... might be a good thing” View on YouTube
Anthropic confirmed a roughly $50 billion independent data-center buildout with ex-Google hires, matching the prediction that it would be forced to build its own capacity.