After Amy Coney Barrett is confirmed to the Supreme Court, a case challenging Section 230 along the lines Clarence Thomas outlined will be fast-tracked to the Court, and Section 230's liability shield will effectively be ended within the next few years.
“if you assume that amy coney barrett gets you know put into the high court in a matter of days or whatever um it's only a matter of time until the right case is thoughtfully prepared along those guard rails that that clarence thomas defined and it'll get you know fast-tracked through to the supreme court but if i was a betting man which i am i think that section 230 is their days are numbered”
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Explanation
No Section 230 case was fast-tracked to the Supreme Court and the law's liability shield was never ended. The closest case, Gonzalez v. Google (decided May 2023 with Barrett on the bench), was resolved on other grounds without the Court reaching the Section 230 merits, and the statute remains fully in force.
If a major platform like Facebook or Twitter switched from an algorithmic feed to a purely reverse-chronological feed, its ad revenue monetization per page/impression would drop by roughly 90%.
“if you go from an algorithmic feed to a reverse chronological feed only i can tell you what will happen in my opinion which is that the revenue monetization on a per page per impression basis will go off by ninety percent”
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Explanation
No major platform (Facebook, Twitter/X) ever fully switched from an algorithmic feed to a purely reverse-chronological one at scale, so the specific ~90% revenue-per-impression drop was never actually tested in the real world; it remains an untested hypothetical rather than a falsifiable outcome.
As of mid-October 2020, the COVID-19 crisis is winding down and will substantially recede in severity and societal impact in the near term.
“it feels to me like we are really winding down on the whole the whole covid thing”
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Explanation
COVID-19 did not wind down after mid-October 2020; the US entered its largest wave yet that winter, with daily case counts and deaths far exceeding the spring/summer 2020 peaks before vaccines began rolling out in December 2020/early 2021.
NBC's town hall with Trump (airing the same night as Biden's ABC town hall) will feature notably aggressive questioning of Trump, as a form of penance for giving him the competing platform.
“so i think nbc is going to come out swinging tonight in this town hall to try to you know take down trump as maybe their penance that's my prediction for it”
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Explanation
NBC's Savannah Guthrie was widely reported to have grilled Trump aggressively at the October 15, 2020 town hall, pressing him for roughly 20 minutes on COVID behavior and his refusal to disavow QAnon; coverage described it as some of the toughest questioning Trump had faced.
Trump will lose the November 2020 election to Biden, and the margin will be a landslide.
“so i think that trump's going to lose and it's going to be a landslide”
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Explanation
Biden did win, but not by a landslide: 306-232 in the Electoral College and about 4.5 points in the popular vote, a solid but not historically lopsided margin. Directionally right on the winner, wrong on the "landslide" magnitude.
Biden is on track to win the 2020 election by an enormous margin.
“i think biden is uh is is on the path to an enormous victory right now”
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Explanation
Same reasoning as the parallel jason-01:01:24 prediction: Biden did win, but the 306-232 electoral / ~4.5-point popular vote margin is not generally considered an enormous/landslide victory.
Polling as of late October 2020 points to a Biden landslide, and Trump no longer has enough time before the election to meaningfully shift the numbers.
“well that's what the polls say certainly is that it looks like a buying landslide i um and i guess that makes sense i think trump's running out of time to change the polls”
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Explanation
Polling did correctly point to a Biden win and Trump did not close the gap, but the actual result (4.5-point popular vote win) fell well short of the double-digit landslide many October 2020 polls implied.
If Trump loses the 2020 election, there is roughly a 20% chance he resigns during the lame-duck period so Pence can pardon him.
“well uh we wouldn't see that unless he lost the election if he loses during the last duck during the lame duck period if he lost maybe 20”
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Explanation
Trump did not resign during the lame-duck period after losing the election; he served out his full term through January 20, 2021, and Pence never needed to pardon him.
There is roughly a 50% chance that, after losing the election, Trump pursues broad pardons covering himself and his family before leaving office.
“that i think it's i think it's like a i think it's 50 50 he just goes for the full family pardon”
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Explanation
Trump did issue a wave of clemency to close associates and family-adjacent figures in his final weeks (Charles Kushner, his son-in-law's father, plus Roger Stone and Paul Manafort among 26 pardons on December 23, 2020), but he did not pardon himself or his own children as the "full family pardon" framing implied.