In the near future following December 10, 2022, the United States federal government will formally attempt to revise or rewrite Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act (e.g., through proposed legislation or regulatory action).
“We're about to rewrite the government. The United States government is going to make an attempt to rewrite section 230.”
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Explanation
Various legislative proposals to reform Section 230 were introduced in Congress, but no successful rewrite has passed as of this check.
Donald Trump will win the next Republican presidential primary (i.e., become the GOP nominee in the 2024 U.S. presidential election).
“you know, Trump's going to win the primary.”
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Explanation
Donald Trump won the 2024 Republican presidential primary and went on to win the general election.
On its current trajectory, China's population will decline to roughly 600 million people by the year 2100 (about half of its earlier peak population).
“The most sensitive country to this is China. I mean, their population get current course and speed. I think the last number is it's going to have by 2100, there'll be about 600 million people in China”
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Explanation
The predicted year-2100 China population figure is far in the future.
Between roughly 2022 and 2072, the Chinese state will become significantly more actively involved in supporting its aging population (for example via expanded social support and intervention in the economy) compared to its level of involvement as of 2022.
“So the state's going to have to get much, much more actively involved over the next 50 years in China.”
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Explanation
The predicted roughly-2072 horizon has not yet been reached.
Nigeria and India are at the beginning of a multi-decade economic boom, spanning several decades after 2022, driven by large cohorts of people in their 20s entering the workforce and working for lower wages than older counterparts.
“you look at other countries like Nigeria or India who are in, uh, you know, at the beginning of what could be a multi-decade boom because you have 20 year olds that will be entering the workforce.”
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Explanation
India has seen strong sustained growth consistent with the prediction, but Nigeria's economic performance over this period has been considerably more mixed and troubled.
Over the coming decades after 2022, Nigeria and India will experience rising GDP, rising standards of living, and rising expectations for government performance as a consequence of their favorable demographic trends.
“So it's going to have huge impacts because then you have rising GDP. You'll have rising expectations of living quality. You'll have rising expectations of how governments treat those people.”
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Explanation
Same reasoning: India's trajectory broadly matches the prediction, Nigeria's less clearly so.
Due to its aging and shrinking population, Japan will experience a contracting, constricting economy in the future, and Japan’s role and standing in the world will become significantly different from its historical position.
“And so these demographics can't be fought. You're going to have a contraction constricting economy in Japan, and their place in the world is going to be very, very different.”
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Explanation
Japan's demographic decline has continued to weigh on its economy and relative global standing, as widely documented (yen weakness, shrinking workforce).
When Joe Manchin retires from the U.S. Senate, the West Virginia Senate seat he currently holds will flip to the Republican Party in the subsequent election.
“West Virginia, unlike Arizona, is like a plus 22 red state. Joe Manchin is the only politician in that state who could win that seat for the Democrats. When Joe Manchin retires, that seat is going Republican.”
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Explanation
Joe Manchin did not seek re-election, and Republican Jim Justice won the West Virginia Senate seat in the 2024 election.