E158: Global trade disrupted, Adobe/Figma canceled, realtors sued, Trump blocked

The Houthi attacks will not be able to significantly disrupt traffic through the Red Sea/Suez Canal for a long period of time; the disruption will be relatively short-lived because major global actors will ensure that shipping through this route continues to flow.

“I wouldn't read too much into this. And frankly, the Suez Canal is too valuable, in my opinion, too valuable to civilization, to the modern world to believe that, you know, a group of rebels, no matter how well funded they may be, is going to be able to disrupt that for any long period of time. I think there's too many interests aligned here to say to keep this thing flowing.” View on YouTube

The Israel–Gaza war and the emerging conflict around Houthi attacks in the Red Sea will both be resolved quickly (within a relatively short timeframe from Dec 2023), as regional and global powers will come together to pressure Iran and other actors in order to protect their multi-decade economic plans.

“All roads, I think, lead, in my opinion, to a coming together of folks to say, okay, let's use this as a definitive moment to just clean the decks here. And I think that that'll put a lot of pressure on Iran, a lot of pressure on the money flows. I suspect that both of these two hot wars get resolved quickly, because the larger, multi-decade implications for the Middle East are too big to let it be subsumed by the Houthi rebels or Hamas.” View on YouTube

If the Red Sea/Suez disruption caused by Houthi attacks continues for another 1–2 weeks beyond late December 2023, there will be large increases in global air freight prices, and shipping prices from Asia to the US will also rise noticeably due to redirected capacity.

“the airlines are a little bit less connected to this market and haven't instantly said, hey, we're raising prices in January. But I suspect if this lasts another week or two, you're going to see big run ups in air freight prices. And these are global markets. The price of freight from Asia to the US gets impacted because they're pulling ships off. The supply gets redirected, the planes get rerouted. Um, it is a global market, so an impact here will affect prices of shipping Asia to us as well.” View on YouTube

For the foreseeable future after December 2023, acquirers and investors should not expect to be able to complete $20 billion-scale M&A deals in any industry, due to the prevailing regulatory and antitrust environment.

“Those are a different era. I really think these... are all very different era. I don't think that that's what you can expect anymore. I don't think you can underwrite to get a $20 billion deal done in any industry.” View on YouTube

If Hustle (Chamath's company) sustains approximately 40% annual revenue growth for the next 10 years from 2023, the company will become a very large-scale business (on the order of a major industry player by size/revenue).

“by the way, if I can grow for ten years, if we can grow for ten years at 40% a year, this will be a ginormous business.” View on YouTube

Over the coming venture cycles driven by AI-driven capital efficiency (i.e., over the next several years), typical venture fund sizes will shrink by roughly a factor of 3–4, such that funds that are $200M in 2023 scale down to about $50M, $500M funds to ~$100M, and $1B funds to ~$200M, returning to 1990s-style fund sizes.

“All I'm saying is, I think what it means is that the $200 million fund today becomes 50. The $500 million fund needs to be 100, and the billion dollar fund needs to be 200. It's basically back to the future. It's like back to the 1990s style” View on YouTube

Following the Missouri real-estate commission class-action case and related settlements (around 2023–2024), the U.S. residential real-estate industry will structurally shift in a way that lowers or restructures commissions to the benefit of consumers, while materially reducing income and/or employment for a significant number of real-estate agents who currently depend on traditional brokerage fees.

“And I think that this lawsuit and the settlement ultimately leads to a change, a shift in the industry that would certainly benefit consumers but could have a negative economic impact because of the number of people that depend on brokerage fees as their as their job.” View on YouTube

A likely outcome of the real-estate commission lawsuits and ensuing settlements (in the next few years after 2023) is that U.S. home-seller listing agreements will be restructured so that sellers explicitly choose the commission percentages for their own agent and any buyer’s agent (rather than a fixed, customary 6%), potentially with regulatory or industry-imposed caps on those percentages.

“The settlement is likely to be that when you hire a broker, they will give you a form and you'll pick what percentage you want to pay. I'll pay you 2% and I'll pay the the buyer's agent 1.5 I'll pay you 1.5. I'll pay the buyer's agent two or they should be caps on it.” View on YouTube

As a result of the Colorado Supreme Court decision removing Trump from the 2024 primary ballot, Donald Trump will go on to win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination and will become the strong favorite to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

“But now I think that they've basically made his winning the Republican nomination a foregone conclusion. And he is the overwhelming favorite to win the presidency after this.” View on YouTube

The U.S. Supreme Court will overturn the Colorado Supreme Court decision disqualifying Donald Trump from the state’s 2024 presidential primary ballot, restoring his eligibility there.

“And I think Will is surely to get overturned in the Supreme Court.” View on YouTube

The U.S. Supreme Court will reject (overturn or vacate) the Colorado Supreme Court’s ruling that barred Donald Trump from appearing on Colorado’s 2024 presidential primary ballot under the 14th Amendment.

“I mean, the Supreme Court of the United States is surely going to reject this decision.” View on YouTube

Given the legal actions taken against him as of late 2023, Donald Trump is on track to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election and return to the White House.

“I think hes headed for the white House on this basis right now.” View on YouTube

The legal challenges over using the 14th Amendment to bar Trump from the ballot will be taken up by the U.S. Supreme Court, which will issue a substantive ruling clarifying how the 14th Amendment applies in this context.

“So you think he'll. Certainly. This will certainly go to the Supreme Court and they'll adjudicate what the 14th amendment really means, because it's never been tried.” View on YouTube