E164: Zuck's Senate apology, Elon's comp package voided, crony capitalism, Reddit IPO, drone attack

Within 2–3 years of February 2, 2024 (i.e., by early 2027), the U.S. Congress will pass a narrow amendment to Section 230 that increases the liability of large social media companies relative to the status quo, rather than a broad rewrite or repeal of Section 230.

“that is the very narrow change in section 230 that I think they all seem to want to make. And so that seems like a very likely thing that will happen in the next 2 or 3 years.” View on YouTube

At some point in the next few years after February 2, 2024, U.S. lawmakers will pass a narrow, bipartisan amendment to Section 230, likely attached to a larger omnibus or budget "Christmas tree" bill, that significantly curtails or effectively removes existing liability protections for major social media platforms.

“I think what they're going to do, if I had to bet, is that they're going to write a very narrow amendment to that law and during some budget process or some other thing where you have a big Christmas tree bill, this will get in there, and I think it will have bipartisan support that effectively removes the liability protection that these companies have.” View on YouTube

In the coming years, U.S. policy or industry standards will move toward restricting mainstream social media use to users roughly 15–16 years old and above, with underage users (around 12–15) only allowed on such platforms with explicit parental permission enforced via handset manufacturers and/or the social media services.

“These companies are going to have to say, well, if we lose the 12 to 15 year olds, is that better for society and better for our business? And we just all agree that social media should start at 15 or 16. And then the handset manufacturers and the and the social sites all have you have to get permission from your parents to use them, period. Full stop. And that's it. And that may be where this all winds up, I think.” View on YouTube

Reddit’s planned IPO around March 2024 will be priced by underwriters at a level near the rumored $5 billion equity valuation and will be deemed a successful offering in market terms (i.e., the deal will price and trade without being withdrawn or significantly re-cut, and the stock will not break materially below the IPO price in its first days of trading).

“The $5 billion valuation seems, I think, pretty good… the investment bankers will know how to price this to take it out and make it successful.” View on YouTube

Following the late-January 2024 drone attack that killed U.S. troops at Tower 22, the Biden administration will carry out some form of military retaliatory strike within the ensuing weeks, likely targeting either Iran-backed militias in Syria and/or Iraq, or Iranian assets directly.

“there is going to be some sort of retaliatory strike. It might be focused on these militias in Syria and Iraq. It could be attacking Iranian assets. We don't know” View on YouTube

If the United States chooses to strike Iranian assets directly in response to the Tower 22 attack, this will quickly escalate into a wider regional conflict involving active hostilities between U.S./allied forces and Iran or Iran-backed forces across at least Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen during the same conflict period (i.e., within months of such a strike).

“Depending on the action they choose, we could very rapidly find ourselves engaged in a wider regional war on five different fronts. I mean, a war with Iran would involve us in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, where we're already bombing.” View on YouTube