As per-mile and dynamically priced auto insurance gains adoption, low-mileage and good drivers will migrate to such services, which will in turn force incumbent auto insurers to raise their rates on remaining customers, strengthening the competitive moat of per-mile insurers over the coming years.
“So they'll start using our service, and that'll force the other guys to raise their rates. And it creates this huge kind of market moat. Um, and we're in the we're in the, we're in the very early days.”
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Explanation
Per-mile insurance pioneer Metromile did not build a dominant moat forcing incumbents to raise rates; instead it struggled as a standalone business and was acquired by Lemonade in 2022 in an all-stock deal, with Lemonade later retiring the Metromile brand entirely.
By the end of 2020, at least one mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine will be available with efficacy in the range of 90–95%.
“He said, by the end of the year, we'd have vaccines and they would have because of this mRNA, if I remember correctly, 90, 95% efficacy.”
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Explanation
Both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna's mRNA COVID-19 vaccines received FDA Emergency Use Authorization in December 2020, with reported efficacy around 95%.
In the United States, the first two authorized COVID-19 vaccines (Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna) will together supply approximately 40 million doses in December 2020, 50 million doses in January 2021, and 60 million doses in February 2021.
“And all of these have 90 to 95% efficacy, and that there are going to be 40, 50 and 60 million doses in December, January and February just from the first two in America alone.”
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Explanation
Actual US vaccine rollout badly missed this optimistic pace: by January 23, 2021, only about 41.4 million total doses had been distributed since mid-December (not 40 million in December alone), and only about 20.5 million had actually been administered.
By May 2021, approximately 70% of the U.S. population will have been immunized with a COVID-19 vaccine.
“they do think they can get 70% of Americans immunized by May. So, um, my May.”
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Explanation
The US did not reach 70% immunization by May 2021; even the more modest goal of 70% of adults with at least one dose (announced by the Biden administration for July 4, 2021) was narrowly missed until early August 2021.
Within a couple of months from late November 2020 (i.e., by roughly January–February 2021), the United States will be in a relatively comfortable position with respect to the COVID-19 pandemic due to combined natural immunity and vaccine rollout.
“you combine that with these vaccines starting to roll out. And we get, you know, a pretty kind of comfortable position in terms of the pandemic and hopefully a couple of months here.”
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Explanation
The US was not in a comfortable pandemic position within a couple months; January 2021 was instead the deadliest month of the pandemic to that point, with case counts and deaths far exceeding prior peaks, before vaccination had scaled meaningfully.
By summer 2021, in-person conferences and international leisure travel (e.g., trips to Europe from the U.S.) will have resumed to a meaningful extent.
“we are all going to be scarred for life thinking, you know, when is the next coronavirus?... we are going to be at conferences or going traveling to Europe or whatever it is next summer.”
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Explanation
By summer 2021, in-person conferences and international leisure travel (including to Europe) had resumed meaningfully in the US, ahead of the later Delta-wave setbacks.
For a future COVID-like pandemic, a follow-on 'Warp Speed 2.0' program would be able to respond significantly faster than Operation Warp Speed did in 2020, leveraging mRNA vaccine technology (implied expectation: vaccine candidates designed within days and deployed much more rapidly).
“when the next Covid comes. How quickly will Warp Speed 2.0 go?”
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Explanation
No pandemic of comparable scale to COVID-19 has emerged since 2020 to meaningfully test a 'Warp Speed 2.0' response, so this speculative claim about response speed for a future pandemic remains untested.
For a future highly lethal, fast-spreading virus, mRNA vaccine technology will enable creation of a matching vaccine candidate essentially within a day of obtaining the pathogen’s genome sequence; remaining delays would be due primarily to human trials and regulatory testing.
“We could have a vaccine the next day, you know, like, you could we could have a very real.”
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Explanation
Moderna is widely reported to have designed its COVID-19 vaccine candidate sequence within about two days of receiving the SARS-CoV-2 genome, with the remaining delay to deployment coming from manufacturing scale-up, clinical trials, and regulatory review, closely matching this prediction.
The United Kingdom will begin the first human COVID-19 challenge trials in January 2021.
“in the UK, they will start doing challenge trials for those people who don't know what a challenge trial is... in the UK they're going to be doing the first challenge trials in January.”
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Explanation
The UK's first COVID-19 human challenge trial dosing did not begin in January 2021; ethical approval came on February 16-17, 2021, and the first phase of dosing actually launched in April 2021.
If income share agreements (ISAs) prove successful, then over time (no explicit date given, but implied over the coming years) each economically valuable trade will be served by its own ISA-based school, with the skills training for those trades migrating out of traditional universities. As a result, the remaining functions of traditional colleges will be largely limited to fields and activities that do not measurably increase earning power.
“I think where this goes, if these ISAs are successful, is that every trade that's valuable will get its own Isa type school, and then that gets peeled out of a university education. So what's left for colleges to do is basically, you know, all the stuff that doesn't add value.”
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Explanation
Income share agreement (ISA)-based trade schools did not proliferate to replace university trade training; the ISA model instead contracted, with high-profile players like Lambda School (rebranded BloomTech) facing regulatory scrutiny and enforcement action rather than expanding into a dominant alternative to college.
Assuming Covid-19 vaccines are rolled out and substantially curb Covid within 3–5 months from late November 2020 (i.e., by roughly March–May 2021), the U.S. economy will rebound very strongly and the year 2021 overall will be a "great" year economically.
“I do think the economy is going to bounce back really strong next year because of the vaccines. Right. I think you got to say that if these vaccines and Covid in the next three, four, five months, 2021 is going to be a great year.”
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Explanation
The US economy rebounded strongly in 2021, with real GDP growth of roughly 5.9%, one of the strongest annual growth rates in decades, consistent with the vaccine-driven recovery predicted here.
Once Covid-19 vaccines become available (starting in late 2020/early 2021), conditions in the United States will improve, and the year 2021 will be significantly better overall than 2020.
“I do think it's going to get better as soon as these vaccines come to market. So I do think 2021 will be a much, much better year.”
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Explanation
2021 was significantly better than 2020 economically and in terms of pandemic conditions overall, once vaccines scaled through the year, matching this prediction.
Within approximately 3–4 years from late 2020 (i.e., by the end of 2023 or 2024), further declines in the costs of wind and solar power will render extracting oil from the ground economically infeasible in many cases, substantially undermining the economic viability of new oil production projects (especially high-cost ones).
“Because otherwise the cost of wind and the cost of solar is going to make pulling the oil out of the ground economically infeasible within 3 or 4 years.”
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Explanation
Falling wind and solar costs did not render oil extraction broadly economically infeasible within 3-4 years; US oil production instead hit record highs in 2023-2024, and oil remained highly profitable for producers throughout this window.
Within roughly 15 years from late 2020 (by about the year 2035), Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson will run for President of the United States and will win a presidential election.
“I'd like to go on the record with my 15 year projection then, or, uh, which is that, uh, the Rock is going to run for president and win.”
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Explanation
The predicted 15-year window runs through roughly 2035, which has not yet arrived as of 2026; Dwayne Johnson has not run for president and has publicly downplayed the idea, but the window for this prediction to resolve is not yet closed.
At some unspecified point in the future (no explicit timeframe given), Iran will experience a severe internal conflict described as a "crazy civil war" as its very young population challenges the existing regime; Jason also implies that this transition will occur before or without Iran successfully deploying nuclear weapons in that conflict.
“That country's barely holding on. It's going to be a crazy civil war. And let's just hope they don't have nuclear bombs when that civil war.”
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Explanation
No explicit timeframe was given, and while Iran has experienced significant internal unrest since 2020 (notably the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests) and regional conflict involving Israel, it has not descended into a full-scale civil war as of 2026, leaving this open-ended prediction neither clearly confirmed nor closed off.