By approximately 5–10 years after this May 2023 episode (i.e., by roughly 2028–2033), large language models and similar AI models will have largely moved to run on edge devices (e.g., user hardware rather than centralized servers) in such a ubiquitous and rapidly evolving way that it will be effectively impossible for regulators to comprehensively track, audit, and approve which models are being run on which machines.
“there really isn't a great or easy path or ability to do that. And there certainly won't be in 5 or 10 years. Once these models all move on to the edge of the network, and they're all being turned around all the time, every day, and there's a great evolution underway.”
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Explanation
The predicted 2028-2033 window for LLMs becoming untrackable on edge devices hasn't fully elapsed.
Following the May 2023 launch of the official ChatGPT mobile app, the number of ChatGPT users and overall usage volume will increase by roughly an order of magnitude (about 10x) relative to pre‑app levels, assuming broad app availability.
“They did? Oh, that's game over man. If this thing is an app form that's going to ten x the number of users and it's going to ten x the amount of usage”
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Explanation
ChatGPT's user base and usage grew explosively in the months following the May 2023 mobile app launch, consistent with the roughly-10x growth predicted.
David
Right
attribution: medium
01:08:18
economy
Over the period following the 2022–2023 spike in mortgage rates, reduced housing mobility in the United States (caused by homeowners being locked into low-rate mortgages and unable or unwilling to move) will lead to a measurable rise in resident discontent in their current states or cities, compared with prior years when interstate mobility was higher.
“So as a result of that, I think discontent is going to rise, because I think one of the ways that you create a pressure valve is when people are unhappy in a state, they just move somewhere else. Well, now they're not able to do that”
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Explanation
The mortgage 'lock-in effect' from homeowners holding low pre-2022 rates has been widely documented as suppressing housing mobility and contributing to homeowner and buyer discontent in the years since.
David
Right
attribution: medium
01:11:04
marketseconomy
In the near term (within roughly the next 1–2 years from May 2023), there will be significant financial distress in U.S. real estate markets, particularly commercial real estate, evidenced by increasing loan defaults, fire‑sale transactions, or major write‑downs.
“There's gonna be a lot of distress in the market soon. I'm predicting a lot of distress”
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Explanation
Commercial real estate distress, including rising defaults and major write-downs concentrated in office properties, materialized clearly within the 1-2 year window following this May 2023 prediction.
David
Right
attribution: medium
01:12:25
economymarkets
In the coming years following May 2023, many highly vacant office towers in San Francisco and similar major U.S. cities will end up owned by banks through foreclosure or similar processes, those banks will be forced to liquidate a large portion of these properties at substantial losses, and the associated commercial real estate loans will incur significant write‑offs, creating a notable problem for the banking sector.
“All these office towers are eventually going to be owned by the banks, which are going to have to liquidate them. And then we're going to find out that these loans that they made are going to have to be written off, because the collateral that they thought was blue chip that was backing up those loans is not so blue chip anymore. So I think we've got not just a huge commercial real estate problem, but it's going to be a big banking problem”
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Explanation
Numerous office towers in San Francisco and other major U.S. cities were foreclosed on or sold at steep discounts by lenders in the years following this prediction, with banks absorbing significant losses on the associated commercial real estate loans.