Fri, 19 Jun 2026 22:07:00 +0000
Elon Musk will continue holding his SpaceX shares for much longer than the mandatory one-year post-IPO lockup period.
“He's under a one-year lockup. And I predict that he'll hold on for much longer than that because creating SpaceX is his life's work.” View on YouTube
Following SpaceX's June 12, 2026 IPO, Elon Musk has retained his shares with no indication of selling, consistent with treating SpaceX as his life's work beyond the mandatory lockup.
If Iran restarted its nuclear program from scratch after the peace deal, it would take years, likely a decade to 15-plus years, to build enough enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon.
“even if they restarted the program, even if they resourced the equipment, rebuilt the intelligence to do it, etc., etc., it's going to take years to a decade to 15 years plus to build enough enriched uranium to build a nuclear weapon.” View on YouTube
The predicted years-to-15-year rebuild timeline can't be evaluated this early after the 2026 conflict.
The current oligopoly of a few dominant AI labs and hyperscalers will break down over time as market forces drive diffusion and fragmentation across chips, clouds, models, and software layers.
“I just think the market forces are so strong for a diffusion of each layer in the stack finding its way to the cheapest, the more available, the more accessible partner vendors that we're very likely going to see these kind of, you know, handful of oligopolies kind of break down a little bit.” View on YouTube
Some diffusion has occurred (open-weight models like DeepSeek proliferating across chips/clouds), but the top AI labs and hyperscalers have also continued consolidating enormous compute/capital advantages, so the oligopoly hasn't clearly broken down.