Sat, 06 Mar 2021 01:45:19 +0000
U.S. unemployment, at about 6% in early March 2021, will fall to approximately 3–4% within two quarters (by around September 2021).
“We're already down to 6% unemployment. We're going to be down to, I'd say probably 3 or 4% in two quarters.” View on YouTube
US unemployment was around 4.8% in September 2021, well above the predicted 3-4% range.
By the end of May 2021, there will be sufficient supply (about 300 million doses) for every American over age 16 who wants a COVID-19 vaccine to be able to receive one.
“Biden announced that every American who's over the age of 16, who wants a vaccine will be able to get one by the end of May, by the end of May. I mean, we're going to have 300 million doses.” View on YouTube
Vaccine supply and eligibility did expand to essentially all adults by the end of May 2021, broadly matching the prediction.
If vaccination is not administratively hindered, by Memorial Day 2021 the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. will effectively be over as a pandemic (though sporadic cases will continue), i.e., no longer a large-scale public health emergency.
“If the government would just get out of the way, let everyone who wants to get a vaccine get one without worrying about making sure the exact right person and the exact right line gets one first. This thing will be over by Memorial Day. Over. Now, look, there'll still be a case here or there. For sure there'll be. I'm not saying there'll be zero cases of Covid, but there will be zero pandemic understood as such.” View on YouTube
COVID-19 was not effectively over as a pandemic by Memorial Day 2021; the Delta variant caused a major resurgence in cases and hospitalizations later that summer and fall.
According to the CBO projection being cited, U.S. federal debt held by the public will reach approximately 202% of GDP by the year 2051.
“The CBO put out a projection...they said that the, um, US national debt is likely to reach 202% of GDP by 2051.” View on YouTube
This accurately cited a real Congressional Budget Office long-term budget projection showing federal debt held by the public reaching roughly 200% of GDP by 2051.
A means-tested COVID stimulus that heavily weights payments to the poorest Americans and excludes the richest would total on the order of $500–700 billion if implemented expansively (implicit timeframe: in place of the then-proposed $1.9T 2021 package).
“If you added up all of that money, it's probably on the order of 500 or $700 billion if you did it, if you did a really expansive package” View on YouTube
This is a hypothetical counterfactual cost estimate for an alternative stimulus design rather than a testable real-world outcome.
By June 2021, COVID-19 will no longer function as a pandemic in the U.S., but the virus will persist and recur thereafter as a seasonal illness.
“Covid as a pandemic is going to be over by June. Okay. But there will always be cases of Covid. It's going to return as a seasonal illness.” View on YouTube
COVID-19 was not over as a pandemic by June 2021; the Delta variant drove a significant resurgence in cases starting that summer.
The EU will require a digitally verifiable vaccination passport for individuals to travel freely between EU member states (timeframe implied: during the post‑COVID reopening period beginning 2021).
“I think it was proposed in the EU that you would need to get a, you know, a digitally verified passport stamp that shows that you have been vaccinated in order to travel freely amongst other EU nations.” View on YouTube
The EU Digital COVID Certificate, requiring verified vaccination status for travel between member states, was implemented starting July 2021.
Government proposals for digital vaccination passports will fade away quickly once the COVID-19 pandemic period ends (i.e., they will not persist long-term after mid‑2021).
“I just think proposals like this are I think they're going to fade away very quickly once Covid is over.” View on YouTube
Formal digital vaccine passport requirements were largely discontinued by most jurisdictions by 2022-2023 as the pandemic emergency wound down.
Over the coming years after COVID-19, most major cities—at minimum for venues such as sporting events and concerts—will adopt some form of vaccination or biological-status passport system (a "biological Patriot Act").
“I said, it's coming. I'm going to put another marker out there. Um, by the way, because like, you know, there may be something like this in New York. I think most cities will have to have them, I think places, Jason, exactly as you say, for sporting events, for concerts. It'll be very hard...for us to not end up in this place.” View on YouTube
While some cities briefly required proof of vaccination for venues in 2021, these requirements were widely dropped by 2022 and did not become a lasting, widespread 'most cities' phenomenon.
Future legal challenges over business requirements for customer or employee vaccination will reach the U.S. Supreme Court, which will issue a narrow ruling affirming that private businesses may decide to require vaccination as a condition of service or employment.
“I do think that it will get litigated to the Supreme Court. And I think that narrowly, what will come down is that businesses will be able to decide.” View on YouTube
The Supreme Court did rule on vaccine mandates in NFIB v. OSHA (January 2022), blocking a federal large-employer mandate, but this did not take the specific form of affirmatively endorsing private businesses' right to require vaccination as framed in the prediction.
By June 1, 2021, COVID-19 vaccines will be sufficiently available in the U.S. that there will no longer be a public-health justification for emergency government powers such as lockdowns and mask mandates; at that point, such measures will not be needed.
“Once everyone can get the vaccine. And I think that would...Availability. So I mean, look what we should say and it will be available as long as, you know, governors like Newsom get out of the way and stop restricting the administration of it. But I think we need to declare a date certain where we say, listen, on June 1st, there is no more justification for government having these extraordinary powers to lock us down to require us. I don't think we even need to wear a mask beyond June 1st.” View on YouTube
Vaccines were widely available to adults by June 1, 2021, but mask mandates and other restrictions persisted in various states through the summer, especially once the Delta wave hit.
The Gavin Newsom recall petition in California will surpass 2 million signatures by roughly two weeks from early March 2021 (the end of the signature period), with a validation rate of about 84%, leading to a certified recall election to be held around August 2021.
“They're up to 1.95 million signatures...They will be at or over 2,000,000 in 2 weeks, which is the end of the signature period. Their validation rate is about 84%. So I think this is clearly going to pass. There will be a recall election. It will be around August.” View on YouTube
The Newsom recall petition qualified with well over 1.5 million valid signatures at a strong validation rate, and the recall election was held September 14, 2021, close to the predicted timeframe.
By summer 2021, most other U.S. states will have substantially reopened while California will still be relatively restricted under Governor Newsom—likely without a full agreement to reopen schools with teachers unions—and this perceived laggard status and over‑restrictiveness will become a central issue in the Newsom recall election.
“I think what you could see by this summer is that California will look like a laggard. You'll see that politicians like Newsom are holding on to the zero list philosophy. They're being too restrictive. They look ridiculous compared to other states. And he still probably won't have an agreement with the teachers unions to go back to school. And I think this could become the big issue in the in the recall.” View on YouTube
California was widely perceived as slower to reopen than many other states through summer 2021, and this became a prominent issue in the Newsom recall campaign.
There will be a recall election for California Governor Gavin Newsom, held approximately around August 2021.
“Newsom is definitely there's going to be a recall election. I think it'll be around August.” View on YouTube
A recall election for Gavin Newsom was held on September 14, 2021, close to the predicted August timeframe.
The progressive district attorney of Los Angeles County (George Gascón), the district attorney of San Francisco (Chesa Boudin), and California Governor Gavin Newsom will all end up being successfully recalled from office following the then-ongoing efforts circa early 2021.
“you have this Da who's going to get basically recalled in Los Angeles. You have a D.A. that's going to get recalled in California. You have an entire, you know, governor of the state that's going to get recalled.” View on YouTube
Chesa Boudin was successfully recalled in 2022 and George Gascon was later voted out in 2024, but Gavin Newsom defeated his September 2021 recall attempt decisively and remained governor, breaking the 'all three' prediction.
Gavin Newsom will be successfully recalled as California governor, with rising crime and problems in education being key drivers of voter support for the recall.
“Look, this is why Newsom's going to get recalled is because crime and education are just fundamental issues.” View on YouTube
Gavin Newsom defeated the September 2021 recall election by a wide margin and remained California's governor.