Fri, 17 Nov 2023 08:20:00 +0000
If Joe Biden is the Democratic nominee running against Donald Trump in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Biden will lose to Trump in that 2024 election.
“I think he did a fine job. I think he was the only man that could have defeated Donald Trump in 2020. And I have to say, I think it's fair to say, too, he's probably the only Democrat who could and will lose to Donald Trump in 2024.”
Over the coming years, U.S. relations with Iran, North Korea, and especially China (including over Taiwan) will evolve in a more positive and stable direction than is commonly predicted by current commentators who foresee severe deterioration or major war.
“But it also sends a message to Iran, North Korea and even China. And I want to talk about that, too, because I think we have a much brighter future with them than most people portray, as it relates to Taiwan.”
In the post-Putin era, Russia will be a failed state suffering from a significant brain drain of educated and skilled people leaving the country.
“If we do not do our best to support Ukraine in defending, I think it doesn't just send a message to Putin, a post-putin Russia, which is going to be a failed nation with a brain drain and something we should talk about.”
In the foreseeable future, the most likely and most threatening forms of harm to the United States will come from cyber, social/information, or biological attacks, rather than from traditional kinetic military attacks.
“The countries in Europe should be carrying a much bigger, bigger part of this load. We have 750 bases and installations around the world in 80 countries. We are the most dominant presence in world history of any government, and we spend more on our military than the next, I think 11 nations combined, for God's sakes. You know, and if anyone thinks that a kinetic risk to the United States is the most likely harm that will be done us not cyber or not social or not biological, I think you're out of your mind. Those are the risks that I think are most threatening, that I think this president does not quite understand.”
China will experience a major economic/financial bubble bursting that is significantly larger in scale and severity than the 2008 U.S. financial crisis.
“You know, let's let's be reciprocal in the nature of a relationship. If you're going to ban our apps and our platforms or our products or our brands, well, why this is to me an opportunity for the next generation to say this is nonsensical. You know, if you're going to succeed. By the way, China, you all know, has they have a they have a bubble they're facing that will make ours in 2008 look like a gumball by comparison. And that is coming down the pipe.”
Due to ongoing U.S. political dysfunction and relatively porous borders, foreign adversaries will attempt to exploit these vulnerabilities in the coming years, including via infiltration across U.S. borders.
“And by the way, in the United States, mark my words, there are adversaries are watching the dysfunction and distraction right now with the same open eyes. And we have borders that are awfully easy to get in. And that's the truth.”
In the near term after the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack, Israel will hold new elections in which Benjamin Netanyahu is replaced as prime minister.
“And concurrently, it is time for Israelis to call an election to replace Benjamin Netanyahu, because he is absolutely part of Israel's security problem.”
If the U.S. were to adopt a reciprocity-based and uniform regulatory standard for social media and digital platforms, some major platforms that fail to meet these standards would ultimately be banned from operating in the United States.
“I think it has a lot to do with this kind of step towards rapprochement. But yes, reciprocity and to know that Facebook is not allowed. Yeah. Perfect example, but in the United States, that doesn't change my contention that we should set the same standard for every platform, every every media entity, whatever it might be, hold them accountable. And if they don't qualify or perform, then they're banned.”
If Joe Biden remains in the 2024 presidential race as a Democratic candidate, Dean Phillips will not be able to defeat Biden for the Democratic nomination due to structural factors in the party and primary system.
“I mean, I think if Joe Biden runs, he obviously doesn't stand a chance just based on the structural issues that he described.”
Dean Phillips never came close to defeating Biden for the nomination while Biden remained in the race, consistent with the prediction, before Biden ultimately withdrew for unrelated reasons in July 2024.
Dean Phillips’ polling numbers, particularly in New Hampshire, will improve significantly as his visibility increases and as more voters are exposed to him through grassroots politics during the 2024 primary cycle.
“I think I think that Dean Phillips is going to pull really well the more that people get to see him. And I think New Hampshire is set up well for grassroots politics like this. It will it will go over very well.”
Dean Phillips' campaign did not gain traction; he received only about 19.6% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary against a write-in Biden campaign and dropped out of the race in March 2024 without ever polling competitively.
There is a 70% probability that Joe Biden will remain in the 2024 presidential race and not drop out before the general election.
“I still think there's about a 70% chance that Biden runs.”
Biden did not remain in the 2024 race; he withdrew as the Democratic nominee in July 2024 amid pressure following his poor debate performance, contradicting the predicted 70% probability of staying in.
By February or March 2024, the year-over-year U.S. CPI inflation rate will be in the low-2% range, around approximately 2.2%.
“the consensus forecast is you're going to see CPI with a low 2% handle. By February or March of this year. So you're going to see 2.2% CPI or something.”
US CPI inflation was running around 3.1-3.2% year-over-year in February and March 2024, not in the predicted low-2% range.