Employee political activism and internal petition campaigns at Apple will, at some future point (no specific date given), negatively impact Apple's operating results (e.g., growth, margins, or other key financial performance metrics).
“eventually that'll show up in the operating results of the business. It's just a matter of time, right?”
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Explanation
No specific date was given and no clear causal link between employee activism and Apple's financial results has been established.
Once Covid vaccines are widely available and an effective oral antiviral treatment for Covid (like molnupiravir, a Tamiflu-equivalent) is also widely available, Covid-19 will effectively be reduced to a flu-like disease in its economic impact in the subsequent period: worker absenteeism due to Covid will materially decline and most of the economy will return to normal levels of on-site work and activity.
“I think that the combination of vaccines and what is equivalently Tamiflu for Covid, which is effectively what this is, is the one two punch we need so that this basically is rendered... like a flu, which means that there'll be less ability for folks to not show up to work, which means that most of the economy will get back going.”
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Explanation
With vaccines widespread and Paxlovid (an oral antiviral) approved by December 2021, Covid-19's economic impact steadily receded through 2022-2023 toward flu-like normalcy, with absenteeism declining and most of the economy returning to on-site activity.
Approximately 18 months after October 2021 (around early 2023), inflation will be the dominant economic and political issue in the United States, particularly around the midterm election period.
“I'm pretty excited by what I read today, but now my mindset is going to 18 months from now. Midterm inflation. I think that's going to be what it's all about.”
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Explanation
Inflation was widely regarded as the dominant economic and political issue heading into the November 2022 U.S. midterm elections, matching the roughly-18-months-later prediction from October 2021.
An index representing the roughly $3.4–3.5 trillion of private unicorns in 2021 will have a total market capitalization greater than $46 trillion (the 2021 market cap of all existing U.S. public companies) within 20–30 years, i.e., by sometime between 2041 and 2051.
“If you take an index of the $3.5 trillion today and said, you know what, these guys today are going to be worth more than the $46 trillion market cap of all the other public companies that sit today in the next 20 or 30 years...I would be willing to bet 20 to 30 years from now is worth more than the $46 trillion of all the public companies today.”
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Explanation
The predicted 20-30 year window (through 2041-2051) is decades from resolving.
From 2021 onward, U.S. taxes and government spending will increase substantially, peacetime deficits and national debt will remain at or move to new record-high levels, and in hindsight a future assessment will view 2021’s high rate of unicorn creation as a ‘golden era’ relative to a worse economic/innovation environment that follows.
“what I'm worried about is taxes are going up big time no matter what happens in Washington. Spending is going up big time. We now have peacetime deficits that are the biggest that they've ever been. The the the national debt, the peacetime national debt is the highest it's ever been...What I'm afraid of is we're going to look back at this year, the 1000 unicorns being minted and say, that really was the golden era. And everything happened after that. We really screwed up.”
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Explanation
U.S. federal deficits and debt have indeed grown to new record highs since 2021, and taxes/tariffs have risen, matching part of the prediction, but whether 2021's unicorn boom will retrospectively be viewed as a 'golden era' relative to what follows is a subjective narrative claim not yet verifiable.