Nate Silver
Partly Right
00:30:29
politicsgovernmentconflict
There is roughly a 10% or higher chance of a severe U.S. constitutional crisis tied to a contested/close presidential election result in 2024, with the risk potentially repeating in 2028.
“that's like a you know a risk that's you know in the 10 range or maybe higher of a severe constitutional crisis in 2024 and maybe repeated that in 2028 and so forth”
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Explanation
The 2024 election concluded without a constitutional crisis (results were accepted and transferred peacefully), but this was a probabilistic ('10% or higher') risk estimate rather than a certain prediction, so a single non-occurrence doesn't cleanly confirm or refute the calibration.
In the 2022 midterms, Democrats are big underdogs to retain control of both the House and the Senate.
“given that democrats majorities are so narrow they're pretty big underdogs to keep both the house and the senate”
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Explanation
Democrats lost control of the House in the 2022 midterms, as predicted (they retained the Senate).
Weak/off-the-wall GOP Senate nominees could cost Republicans two or three seats in 2022, which could be enough for Democrats to keep the Senate.
“candidates nominated that would cost them two or three seats potentially and that might be enough to save democrats in the senate”
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Explanation
Confirmed: weak GOP Senate nominees (Herschel Walker in Georgia, Blake Masters in Arizona, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania) lost winnable races in 2022, and Democrats retained control of the Senate.
Republicans are expected to make big seat pickups in the 2022 midterms, though the Senate will be tougher for the GOP than the House.
“well i mean pretty clearly the republicans are expected to have big pickups uh in this midterm right”
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Explanation
Republicans made notable gains and won the House majority in 2022, while the Senate proved tougher and stayed with Democrats, matching the prediction.
If the generic congressional ballot favors Republicans by only about two points, Democrats can likely keep the Senate in 2022; if it reaches six to seven points, Democrats will lose it.
“if you have a generic ballot that favors republicans by like two points the democrats can probably keep the senate if it gets to like six points or seven points then then the wall topples”
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Explanation
The 2022 generic ballot was roughly in the low single digits favoring Republicans, and Democrats did retain the Senate, consistent with Sacks's threshold framework.
Anti-abortion legislation and GOP culture-war attacks on LGBT people will help motivate higher Democratic turnout in the 2022 midterms.
“i do think some of the uh anti-abortion legislation right some of the facts the gop kind of is now back on offense on culture wars against lgbt people right um i think potentially is is going to help motivate democrats to turn”
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Explanation
The Dobbs abortion ruling and related GOP culture-war positioning are widely credited with boosting Democratic turnout in the 2022 midterms and preventing an anticipated 'red wave.'