There is roughly a 10% or higher chance of a severe U.S. constitutional crisis tied to a contested/close presidential election result in 2024, with the risk potentially repeating in 2028.
“that's like a you know a risk that's you know in the 10 range or maybe higher of a severe constitutional crisis in 2024 and maybe repeated that in 2028 and so forth”
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Explanation
The 2024 election concluded without a constitutional crisis (results were accepted and transferred peacefully), but this was a probabilistic ('10% or higher') risk estimate rather than a certain prediction, so a single non-occurrence doesn't cleanly confirm or refute the calibration.
In the 2022 midterms, Democrats are big underdogs to retain control of both the House and the Senate.
“given that democrats majorities are so narrow they're pretty big underdogs to keep both the house and the senate”
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Explanation
Democrats lost control of the House in the 2022 midterms, as predicted (they retained the Senate).
Weak/off-the-wall GOP Senate nominees could cost Republicans two or three seats in 2022, which could be enough for Democrats to keep the Senate.
“candidates nominated that would cost them two or three seats potentially and that might be enough to save democrats in the senate”
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Explanation
Confirmed: weak GOP Senate nominees (Herschel Walker in Georgia, Blake Masters in Arizona, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania) lost winnable races in 2022, and Democrats retained control of the Senate.
Anti-abortion legislation and GOP culture-war attacks on LGBT people will help motivate higher Democratic turnout in the 2022 midterms.
“i do think some of the uh anti-abortion legislation right some of the facts the gop kind of is now back on offense on culture wars against lgbt people right um i think potentially is is going to help motivate democrats to turn”
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Explanation
The Dobbs abortion ruling and related GOP culture-war positioning are widely credited with boosting Democratic turnout in the 2022 midterms and preventing an anticipated 'red wave.'
Democrats will be slight favorites to win the 2028 presidential election.
“Like I think Democrats are slight favorites to win in 2028.”
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Explanation
This is a forecast for the 2028 presidential election, which has not happened yet.
Democrats will take the House in the 2026 midterms, with roughly an 85-90% probability.
“Prediction markets say Democrats are around I think 80 or 85% to take the House and 40 or 45% to take the Senate. Those both seem pretty reasonable to me. I think if anything it's a little bit low on the House. Um I think it might be more like 85 or 90.”
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Explanation
This is a forecast for the November 2026 midterm elections, which have not happened yet as of this validation.
The GOP will hold the Senate in the 2026 midterms, with roughly a 50-60% probability depending on gas prices and the Iran conflict.
“Probably probably slight edge to the GOP with maybe gas prices and Iran determining whether it's more truly 50/50 or maybe maybe 60% GOP.”
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Explanation
This is a forecast for the November 2026 midterm Senate races, which have not happened yet as of this validation.
AOC (not Gavin Newsom) will be the Democratic insurgent, anti-establishment 'burn it down' candidate to watch heading into 2028, as Newsom's standing fades.
“She's my bet. Yeah.”
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Explanation
This is a forecast about who becomes the Democratic insurgent candidate heading into the 2028 primary, which has not happened yet.