Mon, 29 Jun 2026 15:47:00 +0000
Democrats will be slight favorites to win the 2028 presidential election.
“Like I think Democrats are slight favorites to win in 2028.” View on YouTube
This is a forecast for the 2028 presidential election, which has not happened yet.
Democrats will take the House in the 2026 midterms, with roughly an 85-90% probability.
“Prediction markets say Democrats are around I think 80 or 85% to take the House and 40 or 45% to take the Senate. Those both seem pretty reasonable to me. I think if anything it's a little bit low on the House. Um I think it might be more like 85 or 90.” View on YouTube
This is a forecast for the November 2026 midterm elections, which have not happened yet as of this validation.
The GOP will hold the Senate in the 2026 midterms, with roughly a 50-60% probability depending on gas prices and the Iran conflict.
“Probably probably slight edge to the GOP with maybe gas prices and Iran determining whether it's more truly 50/50 or maybe maybe 60% GOP.” View on YouTube
This is a forecast for the November 2026 midterm Senate races, which have not happened yet as of this validation.
AOC (not Gavin Newsom) will be the Democratic insurgent, anti-establishment 'burn it down' candidate to watch heading into 2028, as Newsom's standing fades.
“She's my bet. Yeah.” View on YouTube
This is a forecast about who becomes the Democratic insurgent candidate heading into the 2028 primary, which has not happened yet.