Through a combination of a therapeutic and a vaccine (or just a therapeutic), COVID-19 will be brought under control within two years of this taping (by roughly May 2022).
“I think that we will have this pandemic or this disease within two years”
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Explanation
COVID-19 was substantially brought under control via vaccines and therapeutics within roughly the predicted two-year window (restrictions were largely lifted across the US by 2022), but the virus was never fully eliminated and the US federal public health emergency did not formally end until May 11, 2023, about three years after this prediction.
Barring further economic shocks, it will take about two to three years for US unemployment to fall back from roughly 15% to single digits following the COVID-19 shutdown.
“it's probably going to be a two to three year process to get out of this”
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Explanation
US unemployment recovered to single digits (5.3%-5.4%) faster than predicted, within about one year (by mid-to-late 2021) rather than the predicted two to three years, and reached full pre-pandemic levels (3.6%) by 2022.
No US city will experience a second-wave COVID-19 outbreak as severe as New York's (around 1,500-2,000 daily deaths in the region), because behavior has changed and no other US city has New York's subway-driven population density.
“I wouldn't expect us to have a New York style second wave”
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Explanation
Other major US cities did experience New York-level or worse COVID-19 surges; Los Angeles's winter 2020-2021 surge peaked at over 8,000 hospitalized patients with hospitals nearly overwhelmed, and EMS was directed not to transport certain cardiac arrest patients due to lack of capacity.
Donald Trump is overwhelmingly likely to win reelection in November 2020, driven by public frustration with COVID-19 lockdowns, unless Democrats succeed in ending the lockdowns sooner.
“Donald Trump is overwhelmingly likely to win as a function of people's frustration and about the lock downs”
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Explanation
Trump did not win reelection in November 2020; Biden won decisively, 306-232 in the Electoral College.
If widespread COVID-19 lockdowns and political unwillingness to end them remain a salient issue by November 2020, voter anger over lockdowns will outweigh concerns about the early mishandling of COVID-19 and will become a key factor benefiting Trump in the 2020 presidential election.
“I do I agree the lockdowns the or the unwillingness to end the lockdowns um gives Trump an issue for November Assuming this continues, that supersedes the incompetence of the Covid response... And I do think it will. If it's still the issue in November, it will supersede the, you know, the initial incompetence of the Covid response.”
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Over the coming years after May 2020, California will experience large-scale out-migration (“people are going to leave in droves”) driven by high costs and high taxes.
“California is so expensive. The taxes are so high. Uh, it's I think people are going to leave in droves.”
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Tesla will not relocate its existing main manufacturing operations out of California, although future incremental Tesla facilities will be sited in other locations (e.g., other states) based largely on available tax incentives.
“I mean, I don't think it's a practical reality to move Tesla out of out of California. I think that the incremental facilities can be built wherever he wants them to be built, based on where he gets the tax incentives.”
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Within approximately 20 years from 2020 (by around 2040), humanity could effectively eradicate all infectious diseases, with the primary obstacle being regulatory barriers rather than scientific or engineering limitations.
“One of the things that you know, I have a strong belief in is like, I think in 20 years we could kind of eradicate all infectious disease. The only thing holding that up is regulation. Because the science is known, the engineering is basically there”
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Starting around 2020, the US and China will enter a prolonged, Cold War–style strategic rivalry (“modern Cold War”) characterized by systemic geopolitical and economic competition.
“This is the beginning of the modern Cold War. And so it's America versus China.”
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In the 2020 U.S. presidential election cycle, policy 'decoupling' from China will become a bipartisan issue: Donald Trump will run his campaign significantly blaming China for the COVID-19 crisis, Joe Biden will not defend China and will be attacked with a 'Beijing Biden' framing, and Biden will respond by taking an even tougher stance on China. As a result, U.S.–China economic decoupling will proceed as an actual policy direction supported by both parties.
“Yeah. Decoupling from China is going to be a bipartisan issue now. Um, I think both candidates now will be well, Trump is going to is going to run blaming China for for what happened. And I don't think Biden's going to be defending China. Um, in fact, they're going to try and peg him with the whole Beijing Biden label. And he's probably going to need to try and out-trump Trump on on China. So decoupling is going to happen.”
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Within the coming years after May 2020, the United States will repatriate production of strategic goods such as antibiotics, medicines, and personal protective equipment (PPE), so that these products that are important for national survival are manufactured domestically rather than being dependent on China.
“Um, it doesn't really make sense for us to be dependent on China, for our antibiotics, for our medicines, for our PPE, for any of these, um, you know, any of these products that are important for national survival. Um, I think all that stuff is going to come back home.”
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TikTok’s ability to operate in the United States will likely be resolved as part of a larger U.S.–China negotiation, where TikTok’s U.S. market access is traded in a quid pro quo for concessions such as allowing Tesla to sell cars in China or similar reciprocal commercial access.
“Well, you know, what's probably going to happen is that the TikTok will probably be caught up in some larger negotiation. And, you know, is a quid pro quo. Well, Tesla gets to sell cars in China and TikTok gets to operate in the US. Maybe.”
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Future U.S.–China (and related) international commerce will increasingly be structured on explicit reciprocity deals—market access for one country’s companies will be granted in exchange for equivalent access or concessions for the other country’s firms, rather than being unilaterally open.
“And I think that's the way that all this commerce is going to is going to start working.”
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By roughly two years after May 2020 (around May 2022), scientists will still not have a detailed, reliable mapping from individual human genotype and health status to predicted clinical outcome for SARS-CoV-2 infection; i.e., precision predictions of how this coronavirus affects a specific person based on their genes and health will still not exist.
“We are very like like with any virus, we know very little about how it affects a specific human based on their genotype. Meaning based on your health and your your genes. Here's what this virus is going to do to your body. And we're not going to know that in two years.”
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