The U.S. Department of Justice’s 2023 antitrust lawsuit seeking to break up Google’s digital advertising business will ultimately fail in court and will not result in Google being broken up in ad-tech.
“So for example, if you went back to the big, big, big monopolist case in the 1980s, which is when we broke up Ma Bell. Well, what that circle would have shown is that they basically had effectively 100% share. And what this shows is that there's a huge diversity of people in this market. The second thing is that if you had done this chart many years ago, Amazon would not have really even been there. And over the last five years, they represent almost 12% of the entire market. And it means that if you forecast it forward, they could be at 15 to 20% in a few years as well. So while the pie is growing and definitely Google takes a lot of the profit dollars, the distribution is so much more than what anything looks like in a monopoly. And so I just think it means that the DOJ is more focused on trying to punish these great American companies than it is in trying to be logical and reasoned. And so I don't think this is going to work. The last thing I'll say about this is that if you think about what you should have done, if I were the US government, I would have actually focused on search, because search is a monopoly for Google.”
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Explanation
A federal judge ruled in April 2025 that Google did illegally monopolize open-web digital advertising markets, contrary to this prediction that the case would fail; however, as of 2026 no breakup or divestiture has yet been ordered by the court, leaving the ultimate outcome undecided.
Amazon's share of the digital advertising market will grow from roughly 12% in early 2023 to approximately 15–20% within a few years (by around 2026–2028).
“over the last five years, they represent almost 12% of the entire market. And it means that if you forecast it forward, they could be at 15 to 20% in a few years as well.”
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Explanation
There is not enough clear, specific public data confirming Amazon's exact digital advertising market share trajectory to 15-20% within this window.
When Google removes third-party cookies in 2024, it will become very difficult to track users across websites, and this change will significantly and negatively impact digital ad networks’ and publishers’ ability to target consumers and generate ad revenue starting in 2024.
“Google has declared that they're removing third party cookies in 2024. This means that in 2024, it is going to be very hard to track a user from one website to the next... And that change is now going to make this hit very, very hard beginning in 2024. So the ad networks themselves are already being massively hurt by Apple's ID changes. The third party cookies being removed, it's becoming harder to target consumers, harder to make money as a for publishers.”
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Explanation
Google repeatedly delayed and ultimately abandoned its plan to remove third-party cookies from Chrome, keeping them in place rather than removing them in 2024 as predicted.
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markets
Uber’s advertising business revenue will increase from about $350 million in its first full year to approximately $1 billion in the following year (calendar year 2023).
“you may have noticed Uber is doing an ad business now. They did $350 million in the first year of that business, a million a day, and they're projected to do a billion next year.”
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Following the COVID-19 vaccine policies, there will be a broad decline in public trust of vaccination in general in the coming years in the US (beyond just COVID vaccines).
“Actually I think I think you're right that one of the costs of this policy is going to be that people will stop trusting vaccination in general”
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Explanation
Broad public trust in vaccination has declined in the years following COVID-19 vaccine policy debates, reflected in falling childhood vaccination rates and rising vaccine skepticism in US public discourse.
In the years after COVID, there will be growing public questioning of existing school vaccine requirements for other illnesses in the US.
“You know, you start to question, I think we will start to see people question whether those are appropriate.”
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Explanation
Public questioning of school vaccine mandates for illnesses beyond COVID has grown substantially in subsequent years, including at the federal health policy level.
The statements they just made on the show about not getting further COVID boosters will provoke strong negative reactions from a large number of people in the audience and online discussion in the near term (weeks to months after release).
“By the way, the other thing this is going to do, it's going to inflame a large number of people just hearing us say this.”
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Explanation
There is not enough specific public data to confirm the scale of backlash this particular episode's booster comments generated.
As of January 2023, the Russia–Ukraine war is capable of continuing as an ongoing conflict for another 2–3 years beyond this point without a forced resolution.
“I think that it certainly can go on.”
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Explanation
The Russia-Ukraine war continued as an active conflict for years beyond January 2023, well past the predicted 2-3 year window.
A realistic timeframe for achieving broad, whole-body reversal of human aging using approaches like Yamanaka factors is on the order of 30 years from 2023 (i.e., not expected before roughly the early 2050s).
“30.”
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Explanation
This prediction concerns a roughly 30-year timeframe (around 2053) for whole-body aging reversal that has not yet arrived.