During 2026, a 'great uncovering' will occur in which trillions of dollars of government fraud, waste, and misallocated spending across the US economy (federal, state, and local) will be revealed.
“I think that's going to be the great uncovering of 2026 is we're going to see on the order of trillions of dollars of this sort of behavior happening across the economy.”
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Explanation
This prediction concerns whether a 'great uncovering' of trillions of dollars of government fraud will occur during 2026, a claim that cannot be fully assessed until the year concludes.
Once the bond market recognizes how overstated California's fiscal position and pension system are, California municipal bonds will sell off sharply ('run').
“Chimmoff, mark my words, wait until the bond market sniffs out how fake and propped up the California economy and balance sheet and pension system is... You're going to see these bonds run because those folks don't care about anything other than the ones and zeros of their own financial survival.”
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Explanation
This is a forward-looking prediction about a future California municipal bond selloff that has not yet occurred as of this validation and cannot be conclusively assessed.
Within the next year, California's budget deficit will grow from about $18 billion to about $30 billion, requiring continued bond issuance.
“California has half a trillion dollars of bonds outstanding and the state of California is looking at an 18 billion dollar deficit. They're going to continue to issue bonds over the next year. That number is going to climb to 30 billion.”
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Explanation
This is a one-year-forward prediction about California's deficit growing to $30 billion that has not yet had its full timeframe elapse.
California will need to borrow roughly $500 billion or more to fund its current public pension obligations.
“The state of California is going to have to borrow somewhere on the order of another, this is going to sound crazy, half a trillion dollars plus in order to pay out their current pension obligations.”
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Explanation
This is a prediction about the scale of California's future pension-related borrowing that cannot yet be verified.
David Sacks
Right
attribution: low
01:03:07
economygovernmentpolitics
If California's Billionaire Tax Act (BTA) makes the ballot and passes, it will trigger a fiscal 'death spiral' in California and similar high-tax states.
“And by the way, we're about to light the spark, which is the billionaire tax act. Once the BTA, if it gets on the ballot and gets passed, it lights the spark on the death spiral of these states.”
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Explanation
The California Billionaire Tax Act did qualify for the November 2026 ballot after collecting well over the required signatures (roughly 1.6 million versus the ~875,000 needed), consistent with this prediction's first half; the broader 'death spiral' consequence remains to be seen but the ballot-qualification premise held.
David Sacks
Too Early
attribution: medium
01:03:50
politicsgovernment
The 2028 US election will be pivotal in determining whether fiscally troubled states (e.g. California, Illinois, New York) are forced to resolve their debts themselves or succeed in getting them federalized/bailed out.
“So 2028 will become a very very important election because this going to determine whether these states have to finally make ends meet or whether they will basically just try and federalize their problems.”
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Explanation
This is a prediction about the significance of the 2028 US election that cannot be evaluated before that election occurs.
The federal government will not be able to federalize/bail out insolvent state debts, because attempting to do so would cause 20-30% of US Treasury bond buyers to exit the market and Treasury auctions to start failing.
“That's not going to happen. And the reason that's not going to happen is then you'll see a 20 to 30% of the bond buyers just leave the US bond market. And so you will have auctions that start to fail.”
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Explanation
This is a conditional, multi-year-forward prediction about federal bailouts of state debt and Treasury auction dynamics that has not yet been tested.
By some point between 2028 and 2036, the US dollar will have further decayed (lost roughly another 90% of value) as the state fiscal/debt crisis plays out, leaving the federal government unable to intervene.
“The dollar will basically have decayed in that entire process another 90%. So, whoever is sitting in the seat of government at the federal level will not be able to do anything at that time. That could be 28, it could be 32, it could be 36.”
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Explanation
This is a prediction with a window extending to 2028-2036 about further dollar depreciation that cannot be evaluated this early.
David Sacks
Too Early
attribution: medium
01:22:22
politicsgovernment
If California's Billionaire Tax Act passes, it will be challenged in court as unconstitutional, taking roughly 6 to 8 years to resolve and ultimately reaching the US Supreme Court.
“I think what's going to happen is that if people don't see the forest from the trees here and this thing passes, it's going to get litigated because I think many of us feel that this is fundamentally illegal. That's going to take 6 7 8 years to resolve itself. And I suspect that it will go all the way to the Supreme Court.”
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Explanation
The California Billionaire Tax Act had only just qualified for the ballot at time of validation and had not yet passed or been litigated, so this multi-year litigation prediction cannot yet be assessed.
The Groq-Nvidia inference chip licensing partnership will accelerate AI infrastructure becoming cheaper and more valuable, driving significantly more developer adoption, application-building, and end-user growth (billions more people using AI).
“I just think it's going to create a huge acceleration in the ability for this entire infrastructure layer to get much cheaper and much more valuable, which I suspect then it'll have a lot more developer pull. You'll get a lot more applications being built, billions and billions of more people using it.”
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Explanation
The Nvidia-Groq licensing deal closed only in December 2025, and its longer-term effects on AI infrastructure costs and developer adoption have not yet had time to materialize or be measured.