From April 2022 onward, the Federal Reserve will implement multiple 50-basis-point interest rate hikes, potentially including at least one 75-basis-point hike, and will increase the pace of quantitative tightening (to around $95B/month) until major US equity indices (e.g., S&P 500, Nasdaq) experience a substantial drawdown described as a market 'crack' or 'bloodletting' rather than continuing to hover near prior highs.
“you're going to probably see, you know, a lot of 50s, maybe even a 75 point hike. You probably are going to see them, you know, even ratchet up quantitative tightening until there is a bit of a bloodletting in the equity market. They need to see that the market's cracked.”
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Explanation
The Fed delivered multiple 75-basis-point hikes through 2022, ramped quantitative tightening to roughly $95B/month by September 2022, and major indices suffered a severe drawdown (S&P 500 down about 19% for the year), matching the prediction.
Starting from roughly April 2022, there will be an approximately 18‑month period during which startup founders, especially in Silicon Valley and tech, will generally be unable to raise new funding rounds on founder‑friendly terms and will instead have to accept market‑driven (investor‑friendly) terms.
“I think the worst means that there's an 18 month period where you cannot raise money on your terms. You have to raise money on the market terms.”
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Explanation
Startup fundraising conditions shifted decisively to investor-friendly terms for roughly this period, with valuations, deal terms, and the ease of raising capital sharply worsening for founders through 2022-2023.
Roughly three years after Donald Trump’s January 2021 Twitter ban (around early 2024), Twitter will likely conclude it is acceptable to reinstate his account and allow him to tweet again.
“I think all roads will probably lead to a conclusion that after three years, it's probably okay to let this guy back and be able to tweet.”
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Explanation
Twitter did reinstate Trump's account, matching the directional prediction, but Elon Musk did so in November 2022, roughly 14 months earlier than the 'about three years' (early 2024) timeline predicted.
Around nine months after April 2022 (i.e., roughly January 2023), a significant global famine will begin, driven by the Ukraine war’s impact on fertilizer, acreage, and food supply chains.
“for fear of the famine that's about to hit us in about nine months.”
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Explanation
No significant global famine driven by the Ukraine war's fertilizer and food-supply disruption occurred by January 2023 or thereafter; while food insecurity worsened in some regions, a broad global famine did not materialize.
As the food-supply shocks from the Ukraine war and fertilizer shortages play out over the subsequent 1–2 years after April 2022, the United States, Western Europe, and China will avoid major food crises, while Sri Lanka and countries in Northern and Eastern Africa will experience severe food-supply distress or crisis conditions.
“The United States is going to be fine. Western Europe will be fine. China will be fine. Sri Lanka is going to be a mess. Northern and eastern Africa is going to be a mess.”
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Explanation
The US, Western Europe, and China avoided major food crises, while Sri Lanka suffered a severe economic and food-supply crisis in 2022 and parts of the Horn of Africa (Northern/Eastern Africa) faced severe famine-risk conditions through 2022-2023, matching the prediction.
The Russia-Ukraine war, focused on the Donbas and disputed eastern territories, will continue in some active or simmering form for most or all of Joe Biden’s presidency (through January 2025), rather than ending quickly in 2022.
“I think it's going to go on for a long time. That's what General Milley testified. It could go on for years. I think it's going to become a sort of permanent feature in the background of Biden's presidency.”
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Explanation
The Russia-Ukraine war continued in active or simmering form throughout the remainder of Joe Biden's presidency, through January 2025.