Vivek Ramaswamy predicts that the Ukraine conflict will evolve into a protracted, Vietnam- or Iraq-style quagmire for the United States and its allies, rather than resolving quickly or cleanly.
“I do think Ukraine is on track to become potentially the next Vietnam or the next Iraq.”
Explanation
The Russia-Ukraine war did become protracted over years, though whether it constitutes a "quagmire" in the Vietnam/Iraq sense for the US specifically (which is not a direct combatant) is a debatable framing.
Vivek Ramaswamy predicts that the United States will be able to achieve "semiconductor independence" (i.e., no longer being strategically dependent on foreign—especially Taiwanese—semiconductor manufacturing for its modern way of life) within a foreseeable future timeframe relevant to planning Taiwan defense policy.
“I believe we can achieve semiconductor independence.”
Explanation
The US remains strategically dependent on Taiwan/TSMC for the most advanced semiconductor manufacturing as of 2026, despite CHIPS Act-driven domestic investment.
Vivek Ramaswamy predicts that his 2024 presidential campaign will be successful, i.e., that he will ultimately win the race for U.S. president (through securing the Republican nomination and then the general election).
“This is why I'm in this race. This is actually why at this point, I couldn't have told you this in March. But at this point, I'm convinced we're actually going to be successful in this.”
Explanation
Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out of the 2024 Republican primary after the Iowa caucus and endorsed Donald Trump, who went on to win the nomination and the general election.
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01:07:41
politics
Vivek Ramaswamy predicts that by November–December 2023, before the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, he will be polling in at least 3rd place nationally in the Republican primary field, potentially 2nd place with a smaller gap to the frontrunner than expected, and that he will overperform expectations in both Iowa and New Hampshire and then use that momentum to go on to win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
“We planned to be in third by November December, ahead of the Iowa caucuses, ahead of New Hampshire. Overperform expectations in both of those use the momentum to then win the race. That was broadly the strategy... I think we're just now on a different curve where, you know, we might be in second place by then and by a smaller margin than people expected.”
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attribution: low
01:35:16
politics
Vivek Ramaswamy predicts that he will be elected President of the United States in the 2024 election cycle.
“I want to be elected the next president, and I think I will be”
In the near-term (upcoming national election cycle as of July 2023), Spain’s government will shift to the political right (i.e., right-leaning parties will gain power or form the governing coalition).
“Spain looks like it's about to tip right.”
Explanation
Spain's July 2023 election produced a hung parliament; the Socialist-led left coalition under Pedro Sánchez ultimately retained government, not a clean shift to the right.
As of July 21, 2023, the 2024 U.S. presidential election will most likely be a Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump rematch, and Joe Biden is more likely than Trump to win the general election, unless one of three conditions occurs before the election: (1) the U.S. falls into a recession, or (2) the Ukrainian side collapses in the Russia–Ukraine war, or (3) a January 6th–related indictment significantly harms Biden’s prospects.
“I think right now it looks like we're on track to have a Biden-trump rematch. And right now, Biden probably looks like he's going to win, barring a recession happening or the Ukrainian side collapsing in the war or the January 6th indictment.”
Explanation
Biden withdrew from the race in July 2024 and was replaced by Kamala Harris, who lost the general election to Trump; Biden did not win as predicted.