ALL INPredictions

E144: Biden targets Elon, BRICS challenges the West, Tiger hit piece & more

Fri, 01 Sep 2023 12:00:00 +0000

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Chamath Palihapitiya Wrong 00:20:02 politics

If current trends in the Republican primary continue, the 2024 GOP presidential nomination contest will effectively narrow to a two-way race between Donald Trump and Vivek Ramaswamy.

“Yeah. So you see him like basically it's going to be Trump versus Vivek if this continues.” View on YouTube
Explanation

The 2024 GOP primary did not narrow to a Trump-vs-Vivek two-way race; Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out before the Iowa caucuses (January 2024) and endorsed Trump, while Nikki Haley remained Trump's main rival for months afterward.

David Sacks Wrong 00:32:41 economy

If BRICS admits Venezuela, Algeria, and Kazakhstan (which David Sacks suggests may happen as soon as 2024), the BRICS bloc will then control approximately 90% of all oil and gas traded globally at that time.

“If BRICs adds Venezuela, Algeria and Kazakhstan as they may do as soon as next year. They'll control 90% of all oil and gas traded globally.” View on YouTube
Explanation

BRICS expanded in 2024 by admitting the UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Iran, not Venezuela, Algeria, or Kazakhstan as predicted, so the specific 90%-of-oil-and-gas claim tied to that lineup didn't materialize as described.

Chamath Palihapitiya Right 00:54:09 economy

India’s real GDP growth rate will average roughly 7% per year for the coming years (implied medium-term trajectory rather than a one-off spike).

“India GDP is going to be 7% a year. They're off to the races. They're on a rocket ship.” View on YouTube
Explanation

India's real GDP growth has averaged roughly 6.5-8% per year from 2023 through 2026, consistent with the predicted ~7% trajectory.

David Sacks Partly Right 01:00:11 politicsgovernment

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron will both be voted out of office in future elections (i.e., they will lose a democratic vote rather than leaving office by resignation, term limit, or other means).

“Oh, I think Olaf Schultz is eventually going to be voted out and Macron's going to be voted out because people are waking up.” View on YouTube
Explanation

Olaf Scholz was voted out as German Chancellor in the February 2025 federal election (replaced by Friedrich Merz), confirming half the prediction; Emmanuel Macron's term runs to 2027 and he has not yet faced a vote that could remove him.