Jonathan Ross / Groq will, conditional on successfully deploying its stated roadmap, control approximately 50% of global AI inference compute capacity by the end of 2025.
“he said that if he deploys his roadmap, he'll have 50% of the inference compute by the end of next year.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Groq did not achieve anything close to 50% of global AI inference compute by the end of 2025; despite growing, it remained a small player relative to Nvidia's continued dominance of AI inference and training hardware, and was ultimately absorbed into a licensing deal with Nvidia in December 2025 rather than independently capturing half the inference market.
The Federal Reserve will not implement any interest rate cuts before July 2024; the first potential cut will be in July 2024 or later.
“could lead fed officials to postpone anticipated rate cuts until July or later.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
The Federal Reserve did not cut rates before July 2024, and in fact did not cut at all until September 2024, so the prediction of no cuts before July 2024 was technically correct in direction, but note the framing suggested a July cut which also did not occur; the first actual cut came in September 2024, later than 'July or later' implies loosely but the no-cut-before-July part held.
If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates at least once before the November 2024 U.S. presidential election, Joe Biden will lose that election.
“Well, if we if we see a rate hike before the election, I think Biden is toast.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
The Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates before the November 2024 election, so this conditional prediction's trigger condition was never met, leaving the outcome untested.
U.S. inflation will remain persistently above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target through at least the 2024 calendar year, making near-term disinflation back to 2% unlikely.
“this is why the idea of a persistent inflation rate is a lot more credible than it was six months ago.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
US inflation did remain persistently above the Fed's 2% target throughout all of 2024, with core PCE inflation staying in the 2.5-3% range for the full year, consistent with this prediction.
If U.S. inflation dynamics do not improve materially over the three months following April 11, 2024, market-implied probabilities will shift to roughly 75% odds of at least a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike (vs. a cut) by mid-July 2024.
“we're probably now, on balance, 5050 between a hike and a cut. And I think if you don't see this thing change in the next three months, you're going to see 7525 for a hike of at least 25 basis points.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
By mid-to-late 2024, market pricing shifted toward expecting rate cuts (which the Fed delivered starting in September 2024) rather than toward a 75% probability of a rate hike; inflation data cooled enough over the subsequent months to support the eventual cut rather than a hike.
Some form of artificial general intelligence (AGI) will likely be achieved within approximately 5 to 10 years from 2024, i.e., by between 2029 and 2034.
“which is probably the window in which we have some form of AGI.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
This is a prediction with a 2029-2034 window for achieving AGI, a timeframe that has not yet fully elapsed and remains actively debated and unresolved as of this validation.
In the coming years, at least one major lawsuit over AI training on copyrighted content (such as YouTube data or song catalogs) will be filed and fully litigated through the US court system, including conflicting rulings at the circuit court level, followed by a US Supreme Court decision on whether such AI training constitutes fair use; after that Supreme Court ruling, the US Congress will pass follow‑on legislation to codify or adjust the legal framework around AI training and copyright.
“Well, somebody's going to litigate it. Somebody is going to litigate it...we're going to get some messy arbitration around fair use. And it's probably going to work its way up over the different circuit courts. You'll probably get different judgments. And finally, the Supreme Court will resolve it. and then we'll kind of know where things stand. And then and then there'll be a legislative fix.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Major AI copyright lawsuits have indeed been filed and are working through the court system with some conflicting district-level rulings, but as of mid-2026 no case has yet reached the Supreme Court or produced a legislative fix, so only the earlier stages of this multi-step prediction have been confirmed.
Because of the quality of generative music AI systems available as of 2024, usage of such tools by musicians, other artists, and general consumers will grow rapidly over the next few years, becoming widespread enough to force legislators to actively grapple with and debate new laws or regulations specific to generative music AI.
“I think it shows the state of the art is such now that this is going to become a real challenging question from a legislative point of view, given how far ahead these technologies have gotten. And I think that musicians, artists, consumers are going to start to use these tools in a really prolific way, given how good they are now.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Generative music AI tools like Suno and Udio saw explosive growth in usage by musicians and consumers through 2024-2025, and this prompted significant legislative and legal attention, including lawsuits from major record labels against these AI music platforms.
If low‑cost attack drones and missiles continue to be used against US or allied naval assets while the US continues relying on very expensive interceptor missiles without a cheaper countermeasure, then over the coming years the cost asymmetry will materially erode the existing military balance of power in favor of these asymmetric drone users (such as the Houthis).
“with the Houthis, they've been firing cheap missiles and drones at our at our ships in the Red sea. And we've been having to spend $2 million air defense missile shooting down 2000 drones. So if that continues and we don't have a good response to this problem, it's going to really change the balance of power.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
The cost asymmetry between cheap Houthi drones/missiles and expensive US interceptor systems remained a widely discussed strategic vulnerability through 2024-2025, prompting the US military to accelerate development of cheaper counter-drone solutions specifically because of this imbalance.
Over the next decade, as small autonomous and remotely‑piloted attack drones proliferate (including potential assassination drones), automated gun‑turret systems using computer vision to detect and shoot down drones—like the described Bullfrog system—will become a common and practical method deployed on vehicles and around installations to defend against drone threats.
“The one defense investment I've made is actually in this idea of how do you defend against drones?...imagine in the future that we have these autonomous drones everywhere that are basically assassination drones. How are you going to stop them?...it's maybe not the only way of doing it, but it's a really good way of doing it because you can mount these things to a vehicle.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Counter-drone defense technology, including vehicle-mounted automated turret systems, has continued to develop and see increased military interest through the mid-2020s, but has not yet become a common, widely deployed standard defense method within the shorter portion of the predicted decade-long window.
Given persistently declining US military enlistment, over the coming years the US armed forces will increasingly replace human roles with automation, becoming heavily dependent on drones and other unmanned systems for core military functions.
“We don't have a choice, because I think the point is that if you just you just push this photo, we have an enormous human capital problem with the military, which is there's just not enough folks enlisting anymore. So we don't have any choice except to automate and become drone dependent.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
US military branches have continued to miss recruitment targets in multiple years since 2024, accelerating investment in autonomous systems and drones to offset personnel shortfalls, consistent with this prediction.