E66: $FB's major pullback, Rogan/Spotify mess, Xi/Putin meetup and understanding supply chain issues with Bestie Guestie Ryan Petersen (Flexport CEO)

Companies that depend heavily on disrupted supply chains will experience noticeable revenue shortfalls 2–4 quarters after the onset of their supply chain problems (i.e., beginning in mid-to-late 2022 for issues present in early 2022).

“the when the result will actually show up down the road, when all of a sudden they miss revenue three, four quarters down the road. And that's why I've been saying for a couple shows now that the biggest thing I'm concerned about is when the revenue shortfalls start to hit the companies that are dependent on these supply chains, but you don't actually see the revenue shortfall for a couple of quarters after the supply chain problems hit them.” View on YouTube

Within roughly 6 months of February 2022 (i.e., by late 2022), many companies—especially middle‑market retail and direct‑to‑consumer e‑commerce firms—will discover they have significantly over‑ordered goods as consumer spending reverts toward services, leaving them with excess inventory that is hard to sell and was expensive to ship.

“I'm really worried that we're going to find out in six months or in some time period in the future here, that people have ordered way too many goods, that these companies expected demand to stay high and keep booming. At some point, consumers start going to restaurants and start traveling a lot more. You get pre Covid consumption patterns and all these companies get stuck with way too much inventory, that they paid way too much to ship and get delivered, and they can't sell it. And so I'd be very worried for like middle market kind of retail, direct to consumer e-com these types of businesses that aren't very sophisticated and demand planning and end up with way too much inventory.” View on YouTube

Semiconductor supply constraints affecting companies like Apple and Tesla will ease substantially by Q4 2022 and into Q1 2023, reducing chip-related supply chain pressure for these large manufacturers in that timeframe.

“Apple and Tesla basically said, ah, it's kind of reasonably well managed particularly on the chip side. And we see the whole thing easing Q4, Q1 of next year.” View on YouTube

If many companies end up with large amounts of excess inventory and have difficulty securing working capital (as implied by ongoing supply chain disruptions), this will contribute to a significant economic downturn or recession in the subsequent period (late 2022–2023).

“So like the next step beyond all of the supply chain issues could be and I think Sachs has been talking about this a lot like a pretty bad recession. If these companies have all this inventory and they don't know how to get working capital.” View on YouTube

Global logistics market disruptions (e.g., port congestion, high freight rates, long lead times) will not meaningfully normalize for at least 1–2 years from early 2022, i.e., conditions will remain significantly disrupted through at least early 2023 and likely into 2024.

“on the logistics market, I don't see it sorting itself out for the next year for the next couple of years.” View on YouTube

In the months leading up to July 1, 2022, the Biden administration will likely deploy a cabinet-level official or similar envoy to actively engage with West Coast port unions and terminal operators to try to avert a disruptive strike around the July 1, 2022 contract expiration.

“Yeah. And I think I suspect that will that'll happen over the coming months, because July 1st is pretty bad timing for a midterm election if they were to go on strike. And I think he's got a lot of incentive to to make sure that.” View on YouTube

When the IMO carbon-intensity rules for existing ships take effect on January 1, 2023, ship operators will comply primarily by reducing speed by roughly 30%, which will effectively cut global ocean shipping capacity and speed by around 30%. This will be massively disruptive to global trade, significantly increase ocean freight prices beyond already-elevated 2021–2022 levels, and will not materially reduce total CO2 emissions per container moved.

“all the ships in the world will have to reduce their carbon emissions by 13%...There is one way to reduce the emissions of a ship and that's to go slower. And if you go 30% slower than you can achieve a 13% reduction in reduction in carbon emissions....it will reduce the supply of shipping capacity and slow everything down. Another 30% that that takes place January 1st, 2023. It's getting very little attention, but to my view, it's going to be massively disruptive if we slow everything down, reduce the capacity of the network that much further. Prices are going to go to the moon and it's like really asinine law because it doesn't actually achieve any carbon reduction.” View on YouTube

Virtual reality headsets such as Oculus Quest will not replace traditional 2D computing as the dominant general-purpose computing modality; instead, over the coming years they will remain a niche entertainment device category similar in role to a Nintendo Switch.

“Have you guys used the Oculus Quest device?... there may it may end up becoming kind of a niche entertainment device, almost like a Nintendo Switch, where there's a, you know, a mode when you're using it. But I'm not sure it replaces traditional static, two dimensional computing in front of you. The jury's still out. I don't see like, a computer sentiment that says these things will ultimately prevail over the current, um, mode.” View on YouTube

In the November 2022 U.S. elections, the Democratic Party will perform poorly relative to expectations (e.g., losing significant ground), in part because of its stance on Covid restrictions and censorship, as reflected in shifting viewership of figures like Tucker Carlson among young Democrats.

“And this is why I think we're seeing. Tucker's Tucker is now the biggest demographic among young Democrats.... This does not bode well for them. On top of everything else that's happening in the country, this does not bode well for the Democrats in November.” View on YouTube

Starting in the early 2020s, the joint alignment of China and Russia marks the beginning of a long-term decline in U.S. global cultural and economic dominance, with U.S. dominance measurably reduced over the subsequent decade.

“This is the beginning of the end of US cultural and economic influence globally, or dominance rather influence it, uh, globally.” View on YouTube

Vladimir Putin/Russia will play a major enabling role over the coming years in China's rise to global economic and cultural dominance (i.e., China becoming the dominant economic and cultural power internationally).

“he's clearly, uh, not just, you know, out for his own interests, but he's going to play a really important role in China's rise to, uh, economic and cultural dominance.” View on YouTube