Over the ten years following mid‑2023, the combined public market capitalization of the top large tech companies (described here as having grown from about $1T to $10T over the prior period) will increase from roughly $10 trillion to about $25 trillion, with about 30% of total tech value creation accruing to private markets and 70% to public markets in that period.
“Now he was telling me his model shows that over the next ten years it'll be roughly 70 over 30. So it'll be about 30% will accrue. And they think over the next ten years it's going to go from 10 trillion to 25 trillion, which is still a great return.”
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Explanation
The predicted 10-year window (through roughly mid-2033) hasn't elapsed.
The current Hollywood writers and actors strike will backfire by accelerating studio adoption of AI and related technologies that reduce or eliminate the need for human actors and writers, thereby weakening rather than strengthening the bargaining power and long‑term job security of those union members.
“it's going to have the exact opposite effect that they want, if what they want, if what the writers and the Actors Guild want is to show the owners of the studios how valuable they are. The problem is that this moves the owners and the studios one step closer into the hands of tools that will disintermediate the actors and the writers.”
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Explanation
AI adoption in Hollywood has expanded significantly since the 2023 strikes, but the WGA and SAG-AFTRA deals that ended the strikes also secured meaningful AI-related protections for writers and actors, so the outcome wasn't a clean 'backfire' as predicted.
As generative AI tools for scripting, directing, and rendering become widely adopted in film and video production, the industry will reach a point where the number of films produced is on the order of 100 times higher than today, while the average production cost per film falls to roughly 1/100 of current typical studio film costs.
“we could see 100 times more films come out, each of which costs 1/100 the cost.”
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Explanation
No evidence indicates film production volume has increased anywhere near 100x or that per-film costs have fallen to roughly 1/100 of prior levels; generative AI has not yet transformed film economics at that scale.
Following the July 2023 preprint by the South Korean team on a purported room‑temperature, ambient‑pressure superconductor, other research groups will attempt to replicate the reported results by reproducing the material and measurements.
“It will be replicated. People will try and do what they are now claiming they did. To demonstrate this”
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Explanation
Confirmed: numerous labs worldwide rapidly attempted to replicate the LK-99 room-temperature superconductor claims within days to weeks of the July 2023 preprint.
If the South Korean team's claimed room‑temperature, ambient‑pressure superconductor is real (i.e., their result is valid and replicable), it will end up being regarded as the most important discovery in physics of the 21st century.
“If they did not make a fraudulent claim. And it is and it does turn out to be real, then I do think it'll end up being the the most important discovery in physics of this century.”
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Explanation
Moot: LK-99 was found by multiple independent replication attempts to not be a room-temperature superconductor (its unusual properties were attributed to ferromagnetic copper sulfide impurities), so the conditional premise ('if real') was never fulfilled.
Chamath's materials/battery company will publicly announce at least one major breakthrough related to improving LFP (lithium iron phosphate) batteries within a few weeks of July 27, 2023 (i.e., by roughly late August to early September 2023).
“there are these like really big breakthroughs, one which will probably announce in like the next few weeks because we just raised a bunch of money around this idea.”
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Explanation
No independent source confirms the specific timing or content of a battery-technology announcement from Chamath's company.