In the September 2024 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve will very likely begin cutting rates, with substantial pressure for a 50 basis point cut, and sufficient data-based justification that a 50 bps cut is more likely than previously assumed 25 bps.
“yeah. I mean, I think the economy is a lot slower than what people thought. Which to your point, the silver lining is that it probably now tips the balance of action in September to a cut. And if it was 25 basis points, there's probably going to be a lot of folks lobbying the fed to cut 50. And I think that they probably have enough numerical justification now to cut 50.”
Explanation
The Federal Reserve did cut rates by 50 basis points at the September 2024 FOMC meeting.
Interest rate futures markets are implying that by December 31, 2024, the Federal Reserve will have cut the federal funds rate by a cumulative 75 basis points with roughly 100% implied probability, and by 100 basis points with roughly 70% implied probability.
“So now with inflation kind of supposedly approaching 2% and unemployment over 4%, the market, if you look at the trading markets, they are now estimating a 100% chance of a three quarter of a percent rate cut by the end of 2024 and a 70% chance of a one point rate cut by the end of 2024.”
Explanation
By the end of 2024 the Fed had cut a cumulative 100 basis points (50 in September, 25 in November, 25 in December), matching the higher end of the market-implied odds described.
Prediction markets as of late August 2024 imply approximately a 50–75% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September 2024 FOMC meeting, a ~20% probability of a 50 basis point cut, and a ~6% probability of no cut.
“50 or 75% chance of a quarter point cut. 20% chance of a 50 basis point cut and then 6% chance of no cut.”
Explanation
This prediction is simply a report of prevailing market-implied odds at the time rather than a personal forecast, and the actual outcome (a 50bp cut) was the less-favored scenario in those odds.
The 2024 U.S. presidential election outcome will be extremely close, determined by margins of only a few thousand to a few tens of thousands of votes in key swing states rather than by a large national popular-vote or Electoral College landslide.
“Well, the election's going to be a nail biter, and it's going to really come down to a few thousand votes or a few tens of thousands of votes in swing states.”
Explanation
The 2024 election was competitive in several swing states, but Trump ultimately won all seven swing states and the national popular vote, a more decisive outcome than a razor-thin nail-biter.
Between late August 2024 and Election Day 2024, the Harris–Walz campaign will be forced to reveal more policy substance (e.g., via interviews or issue positions), and as this happens, Kamala Harris’s polling lead will erode relative to her initial post–‘hot swap’ bump.
“they've now got to run out the clock for another, I don't know what, 70 or 80 days in terms of running a campaign that's substance free, that's just completely on vibes, that's about joy. Without answering any questions, without doing any press interviews. And I think we predicted some time ago that that just was not going to be sustainable, that at some point they're going to have to tell us what they think. And as they do that, the more they do that, I think the more her polls will correct.”
Explanation
As the 2024 campaign progressed, Harris faced increasing pressure over her lack of media availability and her polling advantage did erode in the final stretch before the election.
In the future, a distinct investment class—primarily sovereign wealth funds and similar pooled-capital vehicles—will emerge whose explicit business model is to finance very large U.S. ‘exit tax’ bills for wealthy entrepreneurs (tens of billions of dollars per case) in exchange for those entrepreneurs relocating, along with their companies’ jobs, know‑how, and future capital investment, to the investors’ home countries.
“I think what will happen is funds, governments, etc. for the right entrepreneurs with the right assets will help you pay the exit tax so that you can just leave the United States. And that's going to be an investment class that's going to emerge, in my opinion, which is these organizations that will pool capital, sovereign wealth funds specifically.”
Explanation
No distinct investment class of sovereign wealth funds specifically financing entrepreneurs' US exit taxes has emerged as a recognized asset category.
Over the coming years, cross‑border capital flows will become increasingly easy and flexible (“more fungible”) than they are in 2024, making it progressively simpler for wealth and investment capital to move between jurisdictions.
“capital flows are very fungible in 2024, and they'll only become more fungible over time.”
Explanation
Cross-border capital flows have generally continued to become more fungible and flexible in the years following 2024.
If the United States implements a wealth tax similar to those tried in France and Norway, high‑net‑worth individuals will move assets and/or residency abroad, actual tax revenues will fall short of projections, and legislators will respond by broadening the wealth tax to cover a significantly larger share of the population than initially targeted.
“every time Wealth taxes get tried. What happens is the wealth flees and you never raise as much as you think you're going to. And then what happens is in order to raise that money, they have to apply it to more people.”
Explanation
No federal US wealth tax has been implemented, and California's 2026 billionaire tax measure has not yet been voted on or implemented, so this pattern cannot yet be tested.