Sat, 11 Jul 2020 02:14:44 +0000
Between roughly 2020 and 2035–2040, Russia will decline in global importance to the point that it will not "fundamentally matter" in world affairs compared to other major powers.
“every single minute we spend on Russia is just a wasted time. This is a, you know, country that just won't fundamentally matter in the world over the next 15 to 20 years.” View on YouTube
The emerging long‑term conflict between the United States and China ("Cold War II") will primarily take the form of cyber/information operations and economic/financial competition, rather than large-scale conventional ground warfare.
“this war will not be fought on the ground with guns. It'll be fought with computers and it'll be fought with money.” View on YouTube
Historians looking back on 2020 will judge the formal beginning and recognition of a new US–China "Cold War II" as the most historically important development of that year, surpassing other 2020 events in perceived long‑term significance.
“I think that the most newsworthy and historically important event will be the beginning of this and the recognition that we are now in Cold War two.” View on YouTube
TikTok will likely be prohibited from operating in the United States market (e.g., via a ban or forced shutdown of its US service) at some point following this July 2020 conversation.
“I think there's a very good chance that they will get shut down in the US.” View on YouTube
TikTok will get banned or forced to shut down in the US unless ByteDance sells 20-30% of the company into American hands, resulting in massive destruction of its enterprise value.
“there's a very good chance that they will get shut down in the u.s. ... unless basically have bike dance cell under 20 or 30% of the company” View on YouTube
TikTok was not banned or forced into a 20-30% sale in the near term: Trump's 2020 divestment order and the proposed Oracle/Walmart deal fell into limbo after Biden's election and ultimately collapsed. A forced sale-or-ban did eventually become law in 2024 and was upheld by the Supreme Court in 2025, but that outcome arrived years later than and differently than predicted, with divestiture still not completed as of the latest deadline extensions.
As the US restricts China's access to advanced chip technology (starting with the Huawei 5G ban), China's most likely path to securing that technology is to invade Taiwan and take control of TSMC.
“the most obvious answer is to invade Taiwan and take over tsmc” View on YouTube
China did not invade Taiwan or take control of TSMC. Instead, the US and allies responded to chip-supply vulnerability with policy measures like the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, and TSMC began diversifying production with facilities like its Arizona plant, while China's domestic chip production continued to fall well short of its self-sufficiency targets.
If the United States fails to make an unambiguous, credible security commitment to defend Taiwan, China will exploit that perceived hesitation by taking more aggressive actions against Taiwan (potentially including attempts to coerce, blockade, or annex it).
“I think we have to be extremely clear that Taiwan is a red line for us, and that we're committed to the security of Taiwan, because if we show any hesitation or weakness there, they will they will seize on that.” View on YouTube
From 2020 onward, US policy toward China will remain broadly hawkish and competitive on a bipartisan basis, forming a durable long‑term (multi‑decade) strategic stance similar in continuity to US containment policy toward the Soviet Union during the original Cold War.
“it does seem like finally, as a country, I think we are kind of getting our act together on China.” View on YouTube
If the United States continues to support and subsidize its own energy independence, Russia and the Middle East will be forced to rapidly monetize their oil, leading to a substantial loss of geopolitical relevance for both. The Middle East will likely fragment into roughly 30 countries, and Russia will become significantly less important internationally due to the erosion of its primary revenue source from oil.
“then what happens is it hastens and accelerates Russia and the Middle East, uh, not becoming relevant anymore because they are forced to monetize their oil sooner. The Middle East probably disintegrates into 30 countries... And Russia becomes less important because they just have to monetize. Otherwise they will lose their only source of revenue.” View on YouTube
During the 21st century, biomanufacturing will grow into a major industry in the United States, and by the end of the century it will be the primary production method for many of the molecules used in food, clothing, and materials.
“I do believe that there is a big wave of bio manufacturing as an industry that is coming on the US this century, and it will hopefully, by the end of the century, be the primary way that we're kind of producing a lot of the molecules that we consume and that we use for clothing and materials.” View on YouTube
Over the course of the 21st century, industrial production will shift toward multi-purpose, programmable bioreactor ‘printers’—large fermentation-tank-based systems that can be reprogrammed via genetic software to output different products, replacing many single-purpose factories.
“in this century we are going to build these giant printers... they're going to be systems that are giant fermentation tanks... you program them with software... they take stuff on the input and they make on the output a bunch of different stuff.” View on YouTube
From the 2020s onward, the United States will experience a sustained growth wave in biomanufacturing, with the sector becoming a major industrial pillar over the remainder of the 21st century.
“we are seeing it now... I do believe that there is a big wave of bio manufacturing as an industry that is coming on the US this century” View on YouTube
Companies using genetic-engineering-based biomanufacturing to produce alternative proteins (such as Perfect Day, Impossible Foods, and Beyond Meat) will be early exemplars and drivers of the broader biomanufacturing wave and will help establish biomanufactured food as a significant category over the coming decades.
“perfect day just raised $300 million this week. Um, impossible Foods raised $400 million... Beyond Meat is where they're at. I mean, these companies are using, um, these techniques...” View on YouTube
If approximately $500 billion of public investment is directed into biomanufacturing starting around 2020, it will substantially accelerate adoption, with biomanufacturing rapidly expanding from food into pharmaceuticals and materials within the following years and decades.
“If we put 500 billion into this, how much would it accelerate it? ... Um, pretty substantially. And I think it goes from food to pharma to materials.” View on YouTube
In fall 2020, U.S. school reopening decisions will vary widely by locality, with some schools reopening in-person with minimal precautions, others adopting strict measures, and some remaining closed, resulting in a heterogeneous national picture rather than a uniform policy.
“Yeah, I think it's going to be a mixed bag... So you'll definitely see a mixed bag.” View on YouTube
US schools that reopen in fall 2020 with pod-based safety plans will shut back down soon after, once even a single COVID-19 case appears, because the fear of a child or teacher dying will trigger an overreaction.
“they'll do all this plan a there'll be all these like pods and half days ... and then somebody's gonna [get a case] and then all of a sudden they're gonna shut down again” View on YouTube
Many US schools that attempted fall 2020 in-person or pod-based reopening plans closed back down as COVID-19 cases spiked, with teachers unions in some districts demanding immediate closure over even a single confirmed case, and 71 of the 120 largest districts starting the year remote entirely.
The Becton Dickinson handheld COVID-19 antigen testing device, costing roughly $250, will have single-use test cartridges costing about $15–30 per test, and these rapid tests (with ~5-minute turnaround) will become available to buyers by roughly August 2020.
“the handheld device that they use in hospitals and stuff today it's 250 bucks, and there's a little test kit that you buy. It'll probably cost 20 to 30 bucks. It'll be available next month per test... and it takes five minutes to get a result.” View on YouTube
Becton Dickinson (the maker of the described handheld antigen test) will perform well commercially with this COVID-19 testing system over the subsequent years, due to the advantages of protein (antigen) testing versus RNA-based tests.
“I think that company will do well with that testing system they've launched, because it actually tests not for the RNA but for the protein.” View on YouTube
Maintaining a low-visibility, low-comment ‘basement’ strategy through the 2020 campaign will continue to be effective for Joe Biden, sustaining or increasing his lead over Donald Trump up through the election.
“Biden Biden's strategy is working... his strategy is basically to say nothing to be, you know, to hide in his basement... but it's working because even though he's a cipher... he's basically a protest vote against Trump.” View on YouTube
Donald Trump’s only viable path to winning the 2020 election is to successfully persuade a large share of voters that electing Joe Biden would lead to extreme outcomes such as toppling American founding symbols (e.g., Mount Rushmore) and dismantling capitalism; absent that framing, he will likely lose.
“the way for Trump to win the election... is to to make the alternative to trump the destruction of Mount Rushmore... If Trump can somehow convince the American public that the election of Joe Biden means the ripping down of George Washington and Abraham Lincoln and and Mount Rushmore and the destruction of of capitalism, um, that is the way for him to win.” View on YouTube
Based on a 2020 Georgia primary exit-poll shift showing far more Democratic than Republican turnout, Georgia becoming competitive signals Biden will also win Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Florida; Trump's only path to victory is a massive pre-election stimulus check to voters in swing states.
“if you think that there is an even remote chance that Donald Trump loses Georgia don't even worry about Minnesota and Pennsylvania and Florida because he would have already lost those” View on YouTube
Biden did win Georgia, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania as predicted, confirming the core thesis that Georgia competitiveness signaled broader swing-state strength for Biden, but Trump won Florida, contradicting the specific claim that all four states listed would go the same way.
As of July 11, 2020, if the U.S. presidential election were held immediately, Joe Biden would defeat Donald Trump.
“If the vote were to happen today, he would win. Uh, Joe Biden would win.” View on YouTube
Facebook will institute a policy in 2020 banning all political advertising on its platform for the remainder of that year.
“it looks like Facebook is going to ban all political ads this year.” View on YouTube
If Facebook bans political ads for the rest of 2020, that policy will materially benefit Joe Biden’s chances relative to Donald Trump in the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
“I think that works. Uh, that obviously works to Biden's favor if that's the case.” View on YouTube