In the ongoing 2025 US–China trade negotiations triggered by the April 2025 tariff actions, the current Chinese cutoff of rare earths to the United States will be explicitly resolved in a formal agreement, restoring US access to rare earth materials or processing from China.
“China has now cut off the United States. And so as part of this trade negotiation, we're going to have to resolve that issue. And I trust that it will be.”
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Explanation
US-China trade talks in 2025 produced partial frameworks addressing rare earth access, but a full, explicit formal resolution fully restoring pre-conflict US access has not been clearly confirmed.
Apple will not succeed in moving all iPhone manufacturing for units exported to the US from China to India within 18 months, i.e., Apple will not have fully completed this shift by the end of 2026 as reported.
“See you in 2035... they should do it. But I'm just saying that's a it's very smart. It's not going to get done in 18 months.”
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Explanation
Apple diversified iPhone manufacturing toward India but did not complete a full shift of all US-bound iPhone production away from China within the predicted 18-month window.
US–India security and trade relations will remain closely aligned and stable for at least the next 20 years, with no major strategic rupture between the two countries in that period.
“I don't know how long it's going to take. But look, I think one of the big lessons here over the past 25 years is that you have security first... So security always has to come first, then you work out trade. And I think that India is fundamentally, extremely aligned with us on security... And I do think that the US India relationship is just very aligned. And I think therefore the investments that get made in the trade, relationships that get forged will be very stable over the next couple of decades.”
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Explanation
This is a 20-year prediction about US-India relations that cannot be evaluated this early.
Between roughly 2025 and 2055, India will experience a prolonged high-growth economic phase comparable in impact to China’s 2003–2012 boom, becoming a major global manufacturing and growth engine over the next 20–30 years.
“India has one massive advantage over China, which is that it has one fifth the labor cost of China, which has one fifth the labor cost of America... In many ways you could say that it's it's China circa 2003... So India is going to have that moment over the next 20 or 30 years.”
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Explanation
This is a 20-30 year prediction about India's growth trajectory that cannot be evaluated this early.
Throughout the remainder of the 21st century, China will remain both India’s and the United States’ primary security threat, with no other country surpassing China as their top security concern before 2100.
“Again, their main security threat is China. And our main security threat is China. And that's just not going to change for probably the entire 21st century.”
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Explanation
This is a century-long prediction about geopolitical threat perception that cannot be evaluated this early.
Despite tariff-related uncertainty, hyperscaler capital expenditure and data center build-outs (including Google's planned ~$75B infrastructure spend) will not be meaningfully reduced in the next quarter or two; these investments will be maintained at planned levels.
“I think it's going to hold up. I mean, look, I just think that this investment in CapEx and the data center build outs is so strategic right now.”
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Explanation
Hyperscaler capital expenditure on AI data centers has continued to surge through 2025-2026 rather than being reduced due to tariff uncertainty.
The Doge program in the U.S. federal government will continue operating beyond 2025, but Elon Musk will reduce his direct involvement to roughly 1–2 days per week instead of being on it full time.
“So my sense is that Doge is going to continue. It's just that Ellen is shifting to a mode where he can manage it. One day a week or two days a week, as opposed to being there five days a week.”
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Explanation
Elon Musk did step back from a full-time DOGE role in mid-2025, but the program's continuation and scope became significantly diminished rather than clearly persisting at a reduced but steady 1-2 days/week pace.
The United States will eventually experience a significant debt or fiscal crisis before Congress undertakes major structural changes to its spending/appropriations behavior; only after such a crisis will Congress broadly recognize and praise Elon Musk’s deficit-cutting efforts via Doge.
“Unfortunately, Congress will never, I think, change its ways until they're forced to by some sort of crisis, which I think is your point about eventually will be in a debt crisis, and then Congress will finally see the wisdom and they'll finally appreciate what Ellen did.”
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Explanation
No major US debt or fiscal crisis has occurred as of 2026, so this prediction's premise has not yet been tested.
Tesla will be operating real robotaxi services (vehicles driving themselves without active human drivers, offered commercially to the public) within approximately two years of this conversation, i.e., by around April 2027.
“Oh yeah. Yeah. I mean, like right now my car is effectively a robotaxi.”
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Explanation
Tesla has launched limited robotaxi service in Austin and expanded modestly, but full, broad commercial robotaxi service without safety drivers had not been achieved nationally by around April 2027 at the time of this assessment.