E29: Coinbase goes public, direct listings vs. IPOs, portfolio management, unions & more with Bestie Guestie Brad Gerstner

Around 5–6 months after mid‑April 2021 (i.e., by roughly September–October 2021, when the California gubernatorial recall election occurs), the U.S. economy will be booming again, COVID-19 will effectively be over as a major issue, and California voters will largely have forgotten Governor Newsom's earlier mishandling of vaccines.

“despite all of that, by the time we actually get around to the recall, which will be in about 5 or 6 months, uh, the recall election, you know, the economy is going to be booming again. COVID's going to be over. People will probably forget.” View on YouTube

From mid‑April 2021, growth equity multiples in public markets will experience an additional 10–20% compression as the U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield rises toward approximately 1.8% during the subsequent normalization period.

“I suspect that there's another 10 to 20% to go right. For a ten year. That's going to be sitting here at one eight.” View on YouTube

In the three months following mid‑April 2021, public equity markets—particularly growth stocks—are likely to experience further valuation multiple compression (i.e., prices declining relative to fundamentals).

“you can believe the next three months that we're likely to have more multiple compression in the public markets, right?” View on YouTube

An investor who, starting around April 2021, owns a diversified index of approximately the top 30% of global technology companies and holds that portfolio for 5–10 years (until roughly 2026–2031) will achieve very strong returns, significantly outperforming safer asset classes.

“I believe that if you own an index of the top 30% of technology companies in the world today, and you're willing to hold them for 5 to 10 years, you will be incredibly well rewarded.” View on YouTube

Total COVID-19 vaccination coverage in the United States will top out at roughly 60–65% of the population (i.e., no more than about 65% of people will choose to get vaccinated).

“Yeah, I would guess 60, 60, 65%.” View on YouTube

SARS‑CoV‑2 (COVID-19) will remain endemic in the United States for multiple years and case counts will not fall to zero at any point in the foreseeable future.

“we are going to have Covid in the United States for years to come. It is not going to go to zero.” View on YouTube

If $2,000 is invested at birth into a low-cost S&P 500 index fund and compounds at an annualized 8% nominal return, its value at age 65 will be approximately $297,000.

“Just so you know, the $2,000, by the time you're 65 at at 8%, which is, you know, if you just buy the S&P ETF would be about 300,000 297,000.” View on YouTube