More individuals who stormed the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021 will be prosecuted (identifiable arrests/charges based on video/evidence) than the number of individuals prosecuted for rioting or looting arising from the 2020 Black Lives Matter–related protests.
“I will stick to what I said before, which is I predict that you will see more prosecutions come out of this, uh, of the people who are involved, I'm talking about the people who stormed the Capitol. Then we saw from all the the BLM protests over the summer.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Federal prosecutors ultimately charged well over 1,500 people in connection with the January 6 Capitol riot, a scale of prosecution far exceeding the number of federal cases brought over the 2020 BLM-related protests and riots.
Donald Trump will not again be a viable national-level political candidate in the United States (e.g., will not run as a serious contender for the presidency in 2024 or later).
“I think he's I think he's disqualified himself from being a candidate at, you know, at a national level again... I think now it's it's clearly off the table.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Donald Trump remained a viable and ultimately successful national candidate, winning the Republican nomination and the presidency in the 2024 election.
Following the January 6, 2021 events, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York and any U.S. state jurisdictions with potential cases against Donald Trump will aggressively pursue legal actions against him, without restraint, in the coming years.
“Even if we don't find a way to basically put Trump in jail for this, I can 100% guarantee you I will bet a million bucks that now the Southern District of New York gloves off every single state that can go after this guy gloves off.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
Multiple jurisdictions did aggressively pursue legal action against Trump in the following years, including a New York civil fraud case, a Manhattan DA criminal hush-money prosecution, a Georgia state RICO case, and federal cases (documents and January 6) brought by a Justice Department special counsel.
Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz’s decision to object to the electors on January 6, 2021 will ultimately harm their political prospects rather than help them, including with Republican voters and future ambitions such as 2024.
“And so, yeah, I think it's going to hurt. Ultimately, they try to do something opportunistic that they thought would help them politically. And I think it's going to hurt them.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
While Hawley and Cruz saw a short-term approval dip immediately after January 6, both ultimately retained strong standing within the Republican base; Hawley won re-election in Missouri in 2024, and neither senator suffered lasting career damage from the objection.
If the United States were to implement the kind of centralized, 24/7, mass-site, nurse- and National Guard–driven program Friedberg describes, it would be possible to vaccinate essentially the entire U.S. population against COVID-19 within 90 days of starting that program.
“We can get at this entire country vaccinated in 90 days.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
This centralized, mass-mobilization vaccination program was never actually implemented as described, so the specific 90-day full-population claim was never directly tested in practice; the real US rollout took many months longer under a more decentralized approach.
The recall organizers seeking to recall California Governor Gavin Newsom will obtain the required number of signatures by their deadline in mid- to late-February 2021, triggering a recall election.
“Yeah, they have until mid or late February. They're going to get the votes.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
The Newsom recall signature deadline was actually extended by a Sacramento court to March 17, 2021 (not mid-to-late February) due to COVID-19, and organizers submitted roughly 1.9 million signatures by early March; the recall did ultimately qualify and trigger an election, but the timeline predicted here was inaccurate.
Between this episode (released January 8, 2021) and the next time the All-In hosts record together, at least one highly unexpected and highly impactful event will occur.
“I will say one thing before we meet next time, I guarantee you some highly unexpected and highly impactful thing will occur.”
View on YouTube
Explanation
This near-certain, open-ended prediction was borne out almost immediately: the GameStop short-squeeze saga erupted in late January 2021, shortly after this episode, as a genuinely unexpected and highly impactful event.