ALL INPredictions

E22: Reflecting on the Robinhood situation with Bestie Guestie Vlad Tenev

Sat, 13 Feb 2021 04:33:17 +0000

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Chamath Palihapitiya Wrong 00:42:48 markets

From 2021 onwards, overall market volatility will trend higher rather than lower compared to the period leading up to early 2021.

“because there's going to be more market volatility, not less.” View on YouTube
Explanation

VIX annual averages after 2021 were mostly lower than the elevated ~20-25 level seen right before this Feb 2021 taping (VIX stayed above 20 through January 2021): 2021 averaged roughly 19.7, 2023 averaged 16.85, 2024 averaged 15.55, and 2025 averaged 18.93, with only 2022 (25.64, the rate-hike/inflation shock year) coming in higher. The multi-year trend from 2021 onward was flat-to-declining, not the sustained rise Chamath predicted.

David Friedberg Right 00:43:08 marketsventure

When Robinhood conducts its IPO, the company will allocate at least some portion of the IPO shares directly to Robinhood retail customers rather than exclusively to institutional investors.

“It's almost certain they're going to give some of the shares available in the IPO to Robinhood customers.” View on YouTube
Explanation

Robinhood's IPO in July 2021 launched via its own IPO Access program, ultimately offering up to 35% of its own IPO shares directly to retail customers, a historic first that matches the prediction exactly.