Sun, 29 May 2022 19:25:00 +0000
Mortgage rates at roughly 3% are probably the lowest they will be for a very long time going forward.
“rates are three were still three percent good on you because that is probably the lowest they're going to be in a really really long time” View on YouTube
Mortgage rates never returned to roughly 3% in the years since; they instead rose sharply to the 6-8% range and remained well above 3% through 2026.
The share of U.S. households able to qualify for a mortgage, currently about 22%, will fall to less than 15%.
“that number today has gone down to now 22 and will go down to about less than 15 percent of people who can actually get a mortgage on a home” View on YouTube
Roughly 35% of US households can qualify for a median-priced new home under current lender underwriting standards as of early 2026, far above the predicted drop to under 15%.
Divvy Homes will deploy over $1 billion of capital in 2022.
“this year alone will deploy over a billion dollars of capital” View on YouTube
No independent data source confirms Divvy Homes' specific 2022 capital deployment figure.
Within 12 to 18 months, rising supply and cooling demand will slow home price growth, but there will not be a mass price collapse like the 2008 global financial crisis.
“i actually think it's going to be more like 12 to 18 months and i don't think that it means that there's going to be a mass fall off like it was in the global financial crisis but it will slow down the price of which homes are growing out” View on YouTube
Home price growth slowed over the following 12-18 months as rates rose, but there was no 2008-style mass price collapse; national home prices declined only modestly before resuming growth.
Fannie Mae/regulators will eventually raise the allowable debt-to-income ratio for conforming mortgages as incomes fail to keep pace with rising rates and home values.
“i'm waiting for them to actually raise the debt to income ratio because of what i showed you earlier which is if your income is not increasing and mortgage rates are going up and home values are going up you now need to spend a larger percentage of your income on housing” View on YouTube
No source confirms a specific regulatory change raising the allowable debt-to-income ratio for conforming mortgages.
Home price growth will slow; whether it turns negative depends on how the broader economy performs over the next 24 months.
“the growth will slow now whether it goes negative or not i think is more a matter of what the economy does over the next 24 months” View on YouTube
Home price growth decelerated sharply as predicted, with some markets seeing modest year-over-year declines in 2022-2023 before growth resumed, consistent with the conditional framing given.