Within the next five years (by approximately 2027), a major well-known automotive OEM will fail or require a bailout because of an inability to access a critical material (such as rare earths) needed for production, rather than because of price increases alone.
“I'll make a prediction, I'll bet that in the next five years we will see a major household name OEM fail or need a bailout due to lack of access to a material.” View on YouTube
Explanation
The five-year window (from May 2022) runs to roughly mid-2027 and has not fully elapsed. Rare-earth magnet shortages did force real disruption -- Ford shut down Explorer production for weeks in mid-2025 and GM/Ford/Stellantis had to secure special export licenses from China -- but no major OEM has actually failed or required a bailout as of August 2026. A further export-license cliff looms in November 2026, so the outcome is still open.