ALL INPredictions

Bernie Sanders: Stop All AI, China's EUV Breakthrough, Inflation Down, Golden Age in 2026?

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 23:20:00 +0000

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David Friedberg Too Early 01:02:16 techaigeopolitics

Huawei will be the company best positioned to challenge Nvidia, deploying independently-developed Chinese lithography technology across its mainland China fabs, with announcements of this in 2026 and visible production impact by 2027.

“My early prediction for 2026 is Huawei, where I think that there's lithography technology that exists in China that is not publicly discussed that is going to be deployed in Huawei and all these fabs that they're building in mainland China.” View on YouTube
Explanation

Freeberg's core claim about 2026 announcements has trended toward right: Huawei confirmed at IEEE ISCAS 2026 that a new chip architecture (LogicFolding) is shipping in its Kirin chips in autumn 2026, and Huawei's first domestically-produced EUV lithography machine entered trial production in 2026 with mass production targeted for later in 2026. But the second half of the prediction (visible production impact by 2027) has not elapsed yet, so this cannot be fully evaluated.

Chamath Palihapitiya Too Early 01:22:22 economypolitics

California's proposed billionaire/property-seizure tax bill will cost the state's economy $100-200 billion over the following 5-10 years (by roughly 2031-2036) due to wealthy residents and businesses leaving.

“That one bill is the thing here. That one bill, this proposed billionaire tax, has single-handedly changed the trajectory of the California economy by 100 to 200 billion dollars over the next 5 to 10 years.” View on YouTube
Explanation

The proposed California billionaire/wealth tax became the 2026 Billionaire Tax Act, a November 2026 ballot initiative rather than enacted law at the time Chamath spoke, and its economic impact is projected over a 5-10 year window (to roughly 2031-2036) that has not elapsed. Some wealthy residents (e.g. Larry Page, Sergey Brin) have already left California ahead of the January 1, 2026 deadline, consistent with the direction of Chamath's claim, but the specific $100-200 billion economic cost cannot yet be confirmed or refuted.