Unknown F
Unvalidated
attribution: low
00:44:02
politicseconomy
In the weeks following the tariff rollout discussed in this episode (early April 2025), negative media headlines about the tariffs will appear; in response, President Trump will substantially weaken or carve out major exceptions to the announced tariffs (“drive trucks through the center of the tariffs”) and then publicly claim negotiated wins as an off‑ramp. At least one foreign company (e.g., possibly in Belgium) will announce building a factory in the United States, be showcased at the White House in a ceremony, and the administration will then cite that investment as justification for reducing or removing some of the initially announced tariffs.
“I think the most likely result of these tariffs is that within the next few weeks, the headlines are not good. President Trump starts driving trucks through the center of the tariffs, and then he starts getting wins from various parties outside that allow him to find an off ramp on some of these tariffs. A company in in Belgium says they're going to build a factory in the United States. He has them to the white House. They have a big ceremony. And then he says, and as a result of this, we're now lowering the tariffs in sort of the same way he did with with Colombia when he said, not the university, the country, when he said he was going to hit them with tariffs. Unless you accept these, these illegal immigrants and then they did. So that very well might be the offer.”
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Ben Shapiro
Right
attribution: medium
00:44:50
politicseconomy
Within a few weeks of the new Trump tariffs being imposed (early–mid 2025), negative media and market reaction will lead President Trump to significantly roll back or carve out major exceptions to the tariffs, using publicized company investment announcements as justification for providing an off‑ramp on some of the tariff measures.
“I think the most likely result of these tariffs is that within the next few weeks, the headlines are not good. President Trump starts driving trucks through the center of the tariffs, and then he starts getting wins from various parties outside that allow him to find an off ramp on some of these tariffs.”
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Explanation
Following market and political backlash, the Trump administration announced a 90-day pause and various carve-outs on the April 2025 'Liberation Day' tariffs within weeks.
Over the course of the current Trump term (beginning 2025), the administration will maintain its new tariff regime in substantial form and will not execute a broad, sudden reversal or "grand capitulation" on tariffs despite market volatility.
“So I think it's pretty clear one, Trump has had a 40 year view on tariffs. They're going to go through with this and they're going to see it through I don't think you're going to see this grand capitulation.”
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Explanation
The Trump administration maintained its tariff regime in substantial form through 2025 without a broad voluntary capitulation; the tariffs were ultimately struck down by the Supreme Court in February 2026 rather than reversed by the administration itself.
For upcoming U.S. 10‑year Treasury auctions over the near term following the tariff announcement in 2025, the clearing yield will be around 4%, providing materially lower financing costs than if the 10‑year had risen toward 5%.
“Governments will now... know that ten years and the auctions will clear at around 4%.”
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Explanation
The 10-year Treasury yield generally traded in a roughly 4-4.5% range through 2025, consistent with auctions clearing around 4%.
China’s domestically developed 3‑nanometer semiconductor manufacturing technology will enter volume production in Q3 2025 and reach full, large‑scale production sometime in 2026, potentially shifting a significant share of leading‑edge chip manufacturing capacity from Taiwan to mainland China.
“China... seems to have developed three nanometer Semiconductor manufacturing technology, which is going to go into production in Q3 of 2025 and will end up being in full production in 2026. This will move the base from Taiwan, potentially into China.”
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Explanation
As of 2026, China's domestic 3nm chip efforts (via Huawei and SMIC) remain in lab validation and production-line adaptation stages rather than reaching full-scale production, and mainland foundries still cannot mass-produce 3nm chips due to lack of EUV lithography access.
By approximately 2040, China will have added new electricity production capacity whose total nameplate capacity exceeds twice the current (2025) total electricity production capacity of the United States.
“In the next 15 years, they're going to add more electricity production capacity than the United States Times two has today.”
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Explanation
This prediction concerns China's electricity capacity additions by around 2040, a timeframe far in the future.
If there is a major corporate default event in 2025 that triggers large payouts on the credit default swaps he describes, then that specific CDS protection position will have the highest return of any major investable asset class or trade in 2025 (on a percentage return basis).
“I hope that this trade loses money, but if it hits, it will be the best performing asset of 2025.”
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Explanation
This is a conditional prediction dependent on a major 2025 corporate default event triggering large CDS payouts, and there is no clear public record confirming this specific trade's performance.
Ben Shapiro
Too Early
attribution: medium
01:52:32
markets
After the initial speculative spike subsides, Newsmax’s publicly traded equity will eventually settle at a market capitalization in the low- to mid-single-digit billions of dollars, roughly in the US$2–4 billion range.
“It'll end up being, you know, total market cap will probably be somewhere when it when it lands in like the 2 to 3 bill range somewhere 3 to 4 bill something like that.”
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Explanation
There is not enough clear, verifiable public data on Newsmax's settled market capitalization range to confirm or refute this specific prediction.